Comments on: Modern Metagame Breakdown: 8/1/16 – 8/31/16 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Wed, 21 Sep 2016 17:11:25 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jason Schousboe https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126730 Wed, 21 Sep 2016 17:11:25 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126730 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Here are my thoughts. I’ll editorialize a bit here, as I have opinions on deck strength just from playing Magic. All shall be taken with the requisite grain of salt, as I don’t play these decks.

Jeskai Nahiri: I don’t think this deck was overhyped (except for perhaps one or two weekends). It has put up consistent numbers since the ban, and the downtick has been gradual. I’m unsure what is causing its retreat, but I think it’s contextual metagame considerations, not that the deck is falling flat.

Company/Chord decks: These variants have always excelled at playing a fair, value-based attrition game. I don’t think their persistence is a fluke. They have a solid Plan B and don’t just fold to Cage.

Gruul Zoo: Some of my friends would disagree, but I’ve always found this deck lacking in power. Not sure why we want to beat down with vanilla 2/2s and Bushwhackers when we could be casting Lava Spike and Eidolon of the Great Revel. Personally I think this is just a bad version of Burn, but I could be wrong.

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By: Linus Elfström https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126729 Wed, 21 Sep 2016 07:13:07 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126729 Wow did Living End just fall of the map completly now.
Thats a shocker.

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By: Nicholas D. https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126728 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 20:46:25 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126728 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Dear Mr. Santiago,
I am not a writer for magic, but if it does not bother you unduly, then I shall present my thoughts on your questions.

1) I personally believe that Death Shadow will occupy a similar position to Infect. However, it will, in my opinion, be slightly worse. The deck is a lot more likely to improve than infect, though, as it is easier for a card to slot into Death Shadow than infect.

2) I agree with you.

3) Kiki Chord’s persistence may have something to do with it being as very skill intensive deck, and that once you know your deck, you don’t want to put the deck down, as you spend quite a bit of time learning. For example, I have been playing a straight Selesnya Chord evolution deck, and I don’t want to put it down, bad positioning be darned.

4) It is entirely possible that all the Gruul deck people just switched into death shadow.

5) Soul Sisters is a decent deck, but there will always be a segment of the population who will always play the life gain deck, thus accounting for it always being played in some numbers.

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By: Tim Estes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126727 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 19:51:23 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126727 Thanks for the hard number crunching work you do! Although it is a tad late, as they say: “better late than never.”

I love reading these articles and I can’t wait to read the next one.

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By: Josh Dedrick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126726 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 19:23:04 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126726 In reply to Josh Dedrick.

it only posted half of my comment. Basically I said there was a difference between hatebears/DnT but for metagame breakdown I like this method better. It helps make the archetype stand out more despite heavy variance between decklists (which is a good thing for DnT).

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By: Álvaro Castro https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126725 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 18:08:46 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126725 Great article Jason! I am glad to hear we are adjusting the schedule too. It surprises me to see Jeskai still in Tier 1, as Sheridan seemed to suggest Bant Eldrazi would be the only blue Tier 1 deck (that was at MtgSalvation though).

As for you 2 days of missing data: check the Deck List page on WotC’ page again, on August 29th they published 3 articles, those are the August 26, 27 and 28th decks.

Cheers, keep up the good work guys!

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By: Josh Dedrick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126724 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:31:53 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126724 anything that runs a core of thalia, leonin arbiter, ghost quarter, and path to exile being reported as “Death and Taxes”. I do think it would be helpful to note, however, if the G/W version of the deck which doesn’t run Aether Vial becomes popular, as that is a substantial change.

on a completely different note, DnT players don’t really have a consensus as to whether 3 or 4 thalia is correct. frequently mono W lists run 5 copies of that effect between actual thalia and vryn wingmare, but outside of that it appears to mostly be preference.

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126723 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 16:46:42 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126723 Glad to see this article make a comeback! Let’s dive into the juicy insights:

1. It’s interesting to see that in general Tier 1 decks are picking up more steam, but it’s also interesting to note which Tier 1 decks are taking a step back. I think Jeskai Nahiri’s downturn is in part due to the hype wave wearing off, but can we say the same about Death’s Shadow Zoo? I suspect that it will settle somewhere in Tier 2. It excels at attacking durdly decks, but there aren’t that many of those around anymore.

2. I agree with your decision to keep the D&T variants together. It’s clear that despite their differences, they are following the same basic gameplan. This also is more informative in the sense that together they compose a Tier 2 metagame share, which means that decks overly soft to their wiles (looking at you, Scapeshift) might have a tough time in bigger tournaments.

3. I’m surprised to see Abzan Company and Kiki Chord still hanging around in Tier 2. Grafdigger’s Cage and other forms of graveyard hate is everywhere, but the Cage in particular shuts those decks down hard. I suppose they’re pretty good when the hate doesn’t show up, but their hanging around at ~4% of the Modern meta when combined is a bit unexpected.

4. Gruul Zoo’s dip to Tier 3 surprises me. I would have thought it’d be in a good position to punish Death’s Shadow Zoo, Infect, and all those other self-damaging linears, but I suppose its overlap with Burn is affecting it? Not sure.

5. Soul Sisters’ resilience in the Tiered ranks is impressive. Not sure what to make of it, though.

Any thoughts?

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By: Jason Schousboe https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126722 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 14:34:27 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126722 In reply to Jacob Kellogg.

This list was typical (zero idea why it’s reported as Hatebears): http://mtgpulse.com/event/25602#340476

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By: Jacob Kellogg https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/modern-metagame-breakdown-aug-16/#comment-2126721 Tue, 20 Sep 2016 14:20:41 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11613#comment-2126721 Where can I find a decklist for one of these Pod-esque Abzan Evolution decks? I’m curious about any deck sporting Eldritch Evolution, and would like to have a look.

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