Comments on: Triple GP Analysis! https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Wed, 07 Sep 2016 09:29:15 +0000 hourly 1 By: Timur Nurmagambetov https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126543 Wed, 07 Sep 2016 09:29:15 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126543 At first I thought Dredge didnt put up results but then I analyzed 192 decks from top64s and found out that Dredge was in 95% confidence interval of its metagame share predicted by this site’s metagame table.
So there WAS NOT enough hate to put Dredge on decline
Top16 and Top8 have a lot more variance so I dont like to draw conclusions from them

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By: Zach Stackhouse https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126542 Tue, 06 Sep 2016 20:04:14 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126542 I’m considering UWx control to work on next, but honestly I’d rather run it with a gifts package of board sweepers, something like 2-3 gifts ungiven and 1 each of day of judgment, damnation, wrath of god, supreme verdict and/or anger of the gods, depending on the exact color combination. That’s how control did the job back in the day – use cheap counters or removal to stop 1-2 threats early on then board wipe to reset things. UW control vs Ravager Affinity standard…crazy times.

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126541 Sun, 04 Sep 2016 12:47:30 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126541 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

You make good points and I agree with all of them! On a pure deckbuilding level I tend to normally be biased against most ramp strategies, yet I can’t deny their results. It’s one of my shortcomings that I tend to work on.

Trevor

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126540 Sun, 04 Sep 2016 12:46:04 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126540 In reply to Care Serene.

Modern is slowly moving away from this fact, but not so long ago you really could play “anything” and do well with it. It seems that Bant Eldrazi’s rise is pushing decks to do “more faster” which reduces the list of viable decks a bit, but still, Modern is in a great place right now, where a bunch of archetypes are in play for the top tables every week. I’m holding out for another showing from Amulet/Scout 🙂

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126539 Sun, 04 Sep 2016 12:44:04 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126539 In reply to RJ Sims.

I’ve never felt like Dredge was oppressive or broken. The deck is too easily disrupted, even though it is doing powerful/unfair things.

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126538 Sun, 04 Sep 2016 12:42:48 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126538 In reply to Álvaro Castro.

I agree with all these points, my extensive experience playing Jeskai felt similar to how Jund plays out; you are doing strong things, but you’re often left hoping to draw the right half of your deck against most of the field.

Trevor

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126537 Fri, 02 Sep 2016 19:22:30 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126537 I’m glad to see Burn win a big tournament. It’s one of the pillars of the format, but it’s been giving ground to a wide variety of other linears of late. However, it’s not to be dismissed, as it tends to punish Death’s Shadow Zoo and Infect players pretty harshly, in addition to making anything not trying to win on T4 sweat. And yeah, Bant Eldrazi is the real deal. I would not sleep on that deck.

Regarding the Breach deck… I think you’re being a bit harsh on it. The fact that the deck can rip a T4 finish when its ramp package lines up right (similar to Ad Nauseam) while also presenting quality interaction against creature decks and attack on a weird enough axis to give midrange and control decks problems means that it can’t be dismissed out of hand. I think consistency is an issue for a lot of the shells out there (as it tends to be for most non-Tron ramp decks), but that can be mitigated once an optimal build is put together (and as this site mentioned earlier, the community’s not quite there yet).

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By: Care Serene https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126536 Fri, 02 Sep 2016 17:18:22 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126536 I love your analysis pieces. I appreciate you showcasing the most interesting/unique decks that broke the top table, and as usual, you offer some great insight as to why these archetypes were successful at this time. I am surprised that you did not give any mention at all to the Amulet/Scout deck in 9th. I believe it is just a blip, as the variety of the t16 shows, but I also feel it is worthy of mention. I’m not convinced its a better choice than any other deck, but perhaps a pointer to the fact that many decks are viable if you pilot them well?

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By: Francois Van Heerden https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126535 Fri, 02 Sep 2016 16:36:40 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126535 In reply to Michael Ferguson.

Yes, you’re definitely correct there, those are also of a similar nature.

That still doesn’t really explain why R/G breach did so well in comparison to Tron. Why would you say it did?

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By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126533 Fri, 02 Sep 2016 04:50:36 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126533 In reply to Michael David.

Personally, I think that it comes down to how the deck is being constructed. When Jeskai draws its removal in the correct order then it is very favored in many matchups. However, the (I say inexplicable) trend towards not playing any sweepers means that it struggles to come from behind. If Supreme Verdict and Anger of the Gods saw more play the deck would be less vulnerable to aggro decks going wide and Eldrazi, which may have boosted its numbers enough to crack the Top 8s.

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By: RJ Sims https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126532 Fri, 02 Sep 2016 04:43:50 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126532 I’m glad to see these results in comparison to MTGO numbers on dredge rep. Glad to see this article http://www.5colorcombo.com/modern/2016/08/21/ban-dredge.html put to rest and no need for “the sky is falling dredge is so oppressive” hype…

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By: Álvaro Castro https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126531 Fri, 02 Sep 2016 02:17:21 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126531 In reply to Francois Van Heerden.

Hello, Michael and Francois. The answer is RG Breach’s breakout performance, which is a poor matchup for Jeskai (roughly 40-60). Also. Bant Eldrazi solidifying its position pushes the deck further down.

Indeed, Jeskai has even to favored matchups against Jund and, as Michael notes, decks like Affinity, Infect or Suicide Zoo. Players even packed RiP and more Angers for Dredge and did well. Sadly, 11-4 is not good enough to Top8 a GP.

As long as Modern is a diverse format, Jeskai will have a hard time keeping up with the metagame. It can surely be Tier 1 but the Bogles, Ad Nauseams, Valakuts and Trons of the format will keep it at bay.

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By: Michael David https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126530 Fri, 02 Sep 2016 00:07:01 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126530 In reply to Francois Van Heerden.

Breach isn’t great against infect either, but it preys on the midrange decks almost as well as tron while being able to also beat tron. Plus it gets bonus points for being able to have turn 3 wins every once in a while. Those bonus points give it game against the hyper aggressive strategies.

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By: Michael Ferguson https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126529 Thu, 01 Sep 2016 22:56:17 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126529 In reply to Francois Van Heerden.

It’s not about Infect by itself; it’s about the sheer volume of linear decks. Tron struggles against Burn, Affinity, Dredge, Infect, Zooicide, in addition to the obviously poor Infect matchup. Being good against 10% of the field (Jund) doesn’t mean much when you’re a huge dog to 75% of the field.

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By: Francois Van Heerden https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126528 Thu, 01 Sep 2016 21:11:56 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126528 In reply to Michael David.

I would also actually like to know, especially if you also remember how prevalent and dominating it was during a large portion of the WMCQ’s. The fall off is kinda strange…

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By: Francois Van Heerden https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126527 Thu, 01 Sep 2016 21:04:01 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126527 Like always, I enjoyed the article.

On a side note, I can understand the hesitancy with R/G breach, but having three of them make top 16 and also seeing no tron in the top 16 says something. Maybe it has something to do with the prevalence rates of both Jund and Infect? On the one end you would expect Tron to be present with Jund being such a large portion of the meta. On the other end, is there a value that Infect has to exceed in prevalence that really halters Tron in events of this size? I can’t imagine that R/G breach has a better match up against Infect, but there had to be some niche the deck was fulfilling for each event?

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By: Michael David https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/09/triple-gp-analysis/#comment-2126526 Thu, 01 Sep 2016 19:44:48 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11301#comment-2126526 I think one of the most surprising things about the three GPs is how there was no Jeskai in any of the top 16s. It is currently the 5th most played deck per your last analysis. Jeskai (removal.dec) should do well against infect, burn, and zooicide, yet failed to produce any results. I find this odd.

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