Comments on: Learning from Failure: Analyzing Defunct Brews https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/analyzing-defunct-brews/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Fri, 21 Oct 2016 10:06:32 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jordan Boisvert https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/analyzing-defunct-brews/#comment-2126985 Fri, 21 Oct 2016 10:06:32 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11987#comment-2126985 In reply to Jason Schousboe.

I agree with Jason. In such a tempo-centric format, losing stock mana from having an inefficient creature Bolted is often devastating. More on this in six hours!

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By: Jason Schousboe https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/analyzing-defunct-brews/#comment-2126984 Tue, 18 Oct 2016 17:22:49 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11987#comment-2126984 In reply to Tiago D’Agostini.

If defined and applied properly, I think the Bolt Test still explains a lot. In this article, Sheridan laid out a more robust framework compared to the sloppy way it’s usually understood. I highly recommend that article in its entirety, but the short version is this: don’t ask “does it die to Bolt?”; ask “does it die to Bolt unprofitably?” The second aspect is, “If it survives, does it take over the game?”

Seen in this way, Goyf DOES pass the Abrupt Decay test. It trades profitably (2 mana for 2 mana, 1 card for 1 card), and if left unchecked can easily win a game. Mantis Rider trades 3 for 1 mana vs. Bolt, and is a slower clock than Goyf.

All that said, while I think Bolt is definitely one of the major constraining factors in the format, it’s not the only one. You’re correct that Goyf constitutes another bar cards must clear.

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By: Tiago D'Agostini https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/analyzing-defunct-brews/#comment-2126983 Tue, 18 Oct 2016 11:15:19 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11987#comment-2126983 The more the time passes the more I feel the Bolt test is just a poor excuse. Just look for example at current modern breakdown. How many of those decks run bolt? Burn (if targets your creature it means effectively +3 life), jund (where bolt is the real deal), and jeskai control.

That is not such an oppressive presence, specially now that jund is only 6.5%.

While its true that 2cc 3/3 does not cut into modern, that is not simply because of bolt, since bolt is just one of the threats present and not much more present than decay for example. Decay kills goyf.. so why are people not saying that goyf sux because of it fails decay test? Because when it does not die it is very dangerous. Same way a 2cc creature 3/3 flying lifelink would see play, even while failing the bolt test. That is where the mantis fails, not at the bolt test, but at the TURN 2 test! A creature must have a special unique capability or be stronger than goyf or faster than goyf to see play in modern. Mantis is slower than goyf and WEAKER than goyf! The real test in modern is the GOYF test, not the bolt test!

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By: Jeramie Pfeffer https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/analyzing-defunct-brews/#comment-2126982 Fri, 14 Oct 2016 19:22:03 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=11987#comment-2126982 I don’t usually like posting my brews. But since I share a pet love of Mantis Rider.

4 Noble Hierarch
2 Birds of Paradise
4 Mantis Rider
4 Spell Queller
4 Savage Knuckleblade
4 Kitchen Finks
4 Qasali Pride Mage
1 Anafenza
2 Melira

4 Collected Company
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Path

1 Forest
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Temple Garden
2 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
1 Mountain
1 Plains
3 Razorverge Thicket

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