Comments on: Two Weeks Out: Analyzing SCG Milwaukee for GP Dallas

By: Zach Stackhouse

Zach Stackhouse — Thu, 03 Nov 2016 19:08:37 +0000

In reply to Neil Philip. I mean...one control deck in the top 16 and you want to say the field is wide open? The problem with focusing too far OUT of the top 8 is that you give credit to decks that just had an okay performance.

By: Neil Philip

Neil Philip — Fri, 28 Oct 2016 04:10:07 +0000

Trevor, I think it’s really dangerous to focus so much on the top 8 – there’s often little-to-no difference in the swiss rounds at such a large tournament between a top 8 finish and a top 16 finish, other than tie breakers – so the “disparity” you draw attention to between top 16 and top 8 is only a razor-thin margin. Also, as one poster pointed out, Dredge only lost to Ad Nauseam in the top 8 (a great meta-game call by Samuel Jadin!), so I’m glad you pointed out that people should look past just the top 8.

I’d even suggest that analysis of this large-a-scale event should look at the top 32, as that still represents only the top 4% of the field, and there’s still not a big difference in winning percentages in the swiss between top 8 and top 32 (and individual differences can easily be explained by variance). Looking at the top 32 shows the following:

9 Dredge (5 top 16)
4 Infect (3 top 16)
3 Affinity (2 top 16)
2 Bant Eldrazi (1 top 16)
2 Titan Shift (1 top 16)
2 Burn (0 top 16)
2 GBx Midrange (0 top 16)
1 Bant Spirits (1 top 16)
1 Ad Nauseam (1 top 16)
1 Jeskai Control (1 top 16)
1 Zoo (1 top 16)
1 Grixis Delver (0 top 16)
1 Lantern Control (0 top 16)
1 Kiki Chord (0 top 16)
1 Sun and Moon (0 top 16)

Even with Dredge being tied for the most represented deck on day 2, 9 making top 32 and 5 in the top 16 is crazy. It was definitely Dredge’s weekend – and that’s even, as you pointed out, in the face of a lot of Dredge hate in the sideboards of those other decks. Possibly concerning, but too soon to say, in my opinion.

But even in the face of all the fast decks (19/32 trying to get you dead by the end of turn 4 – not including the 2 Titan Shift and 1 Ad Nauseam ), there were still control, midrange and tempo decks that made the top 32. Still shows that Modern is an open field – just make sure to bring your Dredge hate!

By: Sam Gegg

Sam Gegg — Fri, 28 Oct 2016 01:49:27 +0000

Playing in Milwaukee last weekend it felt like Dredge was everywhere. The deck’s strong Day 2 finish may be due in part to overrepresentation, but I think it’s worth noting both Dredge decks in the Top 8 lost to Ad Nauseam, probably their worst matchup in the Top 16. I think you also missed the story on Burn: it tied Dredge for most played deck Day 2 (Top 71) at 11 copies but only put 2 decks in the Top 32. I have to think the Day 2 metagame was well prepared for Burn, which makes me think it’s likely a good matchup for Dredge since the rest of the metagame doesn’t seem particularly hostile. I do agree Infect remains in a pretty good spot: the rest of the top tier decks make it hard to justify playing cheap spot removal, but if Dredge can endure the hate Narcomoeba and Darkblast give it a decent matchup. Personally I’m looking for a combo deck like Ad Nauseam that doesn’t use the graveyard or artifacts but also has a passable Infect matchup. It’s not exactly going very well; right now my best lead seems to be Taking Turns.

By: Jason Schousboe

Jason Schousboe — Thu, 27 Oct 2016 19:57:16 +0000

In reply to Jordan Corgatelli. That's my bad. I've been running out of time, but I intend to bring it back asap.

By: Jordan Corgatelli

Jordan Corgatelli — Thu, 27 Oct 2016 19:23:40 +0000

What happened to Monday’s deck of the week?

By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago

Roland F. Rivera Santiago — Thu, 27 Oct 2016 19:06:29 +0000

I find myself greatly enjoying Caleb’s Bant Spirits list (it’s nice to see an interactive and novel deck come out on top), though I think the Steel of the Godhead trick is the sort of thing you spring as a “gotcha” off the sideboard on people. As for how to beat it, being faster is a good plan – Spirits is not a fast deck, unless you live the dream and go Hierarch –> Geist –> Steel. The deck is fairly interactive, but a deck that can either dodge its interaction (Vial decks avoid Queller, for example) or is so fast that it can’t interact with it efficiently. As for how to define it, I would go with tempo – it’s an aggro-control deck with a deep creature lineup, which is classic Fish as defined by Jordan’s archetypes article.

Overall, though, I expect Burn to take advantage of the relative lack of hate (and of the abundant Infect, which it punishes ruthlessly) and re-carve out its niche. Seeing Titanshift up there is also interesting, as the deck is quietly accumulating an impressive resumé of late. I don’t know if I agree that Infect is the best deck in the format, but it’s definitely gotten better, and might be challenging Burn and Affinity for the #1 spot on the aggro totem pole sooner rather than later. Blossoming Defense has been awesome for me in testing, though I’m still wondering why Infect players don’t go for the “max protect” approach (which I’m defining as the maximum amount of Vines and Defenses, with an Apostle’s Blessing or two) when the deck’s main weakness is removal. Any thoughts on that?

By: Zach Stackhouse

Zach Stackhouse — Thu, 27 Oct 2016 18:35:39 +0000

I know it just comes off as being a downer, but Infect makes me not want to play modern, especially not having a spare grand to build a deck that can beat it (especially since that just means I’d be what, 50/50?)