Comments on: Stock Watch- Leovold, Emissary of Trest https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/stock-watch-leovold-emissary-of-trest/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Wed, 12 Oct 2016 18:52:29 +0000 hourly 1 By: Kelly Reid https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/stock-watch-leovold-emissary-of-trest/#comment-1797452 Wed, 12 Oct 2016 18:52:29 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=76925#comment-1797452 I don’t think this changes sealed product by much; One thing to remember is that EV is not just a function of the average box value; it’s a function of sample size. A single Mythic Rare will show up in about 1 in 3 boxes. You’ll get between 1 and 2 of a Mythic -per case-. So, while the value of this card may spike, the fact of the matter is that only about 1 in 120 packs are actually affected due to the frequency.

The approximate $12 spike in price distributed among all those cards increases the raw (non probabilistic) EV of a pack by 10 cents. That also does not account for the fact that increases in the price of one card in a set are “drawn” from the rest of the set, so the EV shouldn’t even change at all, or by such a small margin as to be irrelevant.

The issue is that most of the packs you open won’t contain a Leovold, so their EV won’t change. Probabilistically, increased sample sizes mean that you’re one sample closer to opening Leovold. But to invoke this level of probability, you need to open enough product to smooth out variance. That would put the number into the 600 to 800 pack range, minimum. At that rate, you’re looking at -maybe- a 5% increase in your net overall EV (assuming that the rest of the set doesn’t contract in price in micro-increments across each card).

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By: Mike Lanigan https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/stock-watch-leovold-emissary-of-trest/#comment-1797383 Wed, 12 Oct 2016 14:58:39 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=76925#comment-1797383 We noted this price spike at my shop too, but it hasn’t increased sales as of yet.

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By: Don Whipple https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/stock-watch-leovold-emissary-of-trest/#comment-1796936 Tue, 11 Oct 2016 16:49:48 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=76925#comment-1796936 The copies I had on TCGPlayer were purchased by a store/dealer, so this smells like a buyout, rather than organic demand. That having been said, if people stop opening Conspiracy 2, the new price may stick. I’m looking at the EV of a box of Conspiracy on Dawnglare though and it looks like things may reach a tipping point soon.

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By: Jason https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/10/stock-watch-leovold-emissary-of-trest/#comment-1796858 Tue, 11 Oct 2016 12:02:37 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=76925#comment-1796858 Vintage brewers also feel it has potential.

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