I mentioned the worst case scenario for the first hand. Not necessarily the scenario that is likely to happen. Given the prevalence of infect (which the first hand has a hard time beating) and dredge (which the first hand has a hard time beating better dredge draws), I don’t think it’s unreasonable to try to get a 6 card hand with a creature. The real issue with the first hand is that even if you get a 6 card hand with 1 less 2 mana spell, you likely won’t cast them all before you die anyway. The hand doesn’t interact with creatures particularly well and doesn’t pressure with creatures. I think the fail rate of the first type of hand is too high.

I would mulligan the hand because on average, a 6 card will be as good or better than that 7. It’s true that there are not a lot of 1 mana creatures in the deck but those hands are just head and shoulders above other hands that it is worth mulliganing for. It’s more obvious in a deck like infect that if you dont have 1 of your 12 infect cards you should send the hand back but it’s still pretty close in burn.

Come on, how often do you really get 8 damage out of Goblin Guide? Path and Bolt are the two most popular spells in the format. Even a Wall of Omens shuts down your plan here.

Also, if you don’t want to see Searing Blaze in your opening hand, why are you main decking it?

I like how you throw the burn hand back because you need a one mana creature… do you then stack the deck to make sure you get one with your six card hand?

We usually dont mulligan decent hands because there is no assurance we wont just mull into oblivion or find ourselves with the exact same problem with one less card to use.

When you know the hand wont win the game anyways you toss it. But you need to know what your opponent is on to make that call. If your opponent is on infect that searing blaze looks a lot better.

When your hand deals 17 and you just need to not peel three two drops in a row thats pretty good odds. Id like to see you throw it back and mull to four keeping a hand of land land searing blaze boros charm as your just deserts!

While the hand you presented is not stellar (namely, it has no creatures), it’s in the clear keep category for me. On the play, it opens with a weak start, but there are plenty of scenarios that have you goldfishing 17-20+ damage by Turn 4. Drawing a Land, Goblin Guide, a Swiftspear, and Eidolon, a Lavamancer, a Rift Bolt, a Lava Spike, or Lightning Bolt pretty much guarantees 17-20 damage gold-fishing by Turn 4, and in the rare scenario where you don’t (you draw basically only 2 mana spells or totally flood out against someone with no creatures), you’re still pretty much a lock for a Turn 5 kill, which will often get you there.

On the draw, this hand looks even better. You have decent odds of getting out a T1 creature and are basically guaranteed to get a kill on your turn 4 with the extra card.

In contrast, a lot can go wrong with a mulligan to 6. You could be forced to keep a 1 land hand that goes nowhere, you could draw a similarly mediocre hand with a bunch of 2 drops minus 1 less piece of removal, you could draw a hand with 3+ lands, which in almost any scenario won’t be as attractive, etc.

I agree creatures are great in Burn, and your most explosive wins will be a pile of creatures followed by an Atarka’s Command or a few pieces of Burn. An Eidolon will just flat out win games against certain decks (or give them serious problems if they can’t find removal). However, it’s the rare game where a T1 Goblin Guide represents 6 or even 8 damage. Those games happen, and it’s terrific to have that kind of ceiling, but just as often your goblin guide gets bolted or blocked after 1 swing. Sometimes your turn 1 goblin guide on the draw might as well read “your opponent takes 0 damage, must spend 1 red mana, discard a lightning bolt, and draw a land card into their hand”.

Ultimately, we just can’t be that picky with Burn. Every mulligan is a flirtation with disaster and should really only be done if you explicitly know your hand is bad against the match-up or your hand is way too fragile to get you there (has 4+ lands, 1 or 0 lands, no turn 1 play, and some other very extreme corner cases, etc.).

I think that Dredge hand is probably keepable, though I don’t play a lot of Dredge. It has some immediate gas, an enabler, an awesome piece of removal, and the chance to look at several cards through the next few turns. So it doesn’t take too much for the hand to get the engine going.

About the current hand you are mentioning… I would mulligan this hand without regrets.

1- It has no Dredger’s. It’s very dependant on getting one with Faithless Looting
2- It only brings 4 power to the table, and on turn 3, because they won’t have haste on Turn 2.

This deck aims to have an overwhelming position over our opponents in the first turns, not to “gain value”. Sure, the Bloodghasts won’t be “dead” on the graveyard, but this is by far one of the slowest, and dependant hands you could manage. And you can manage better.

For me I would mull the dredge hand .
Of course you have the line of play :
Turn 1 : Land + Faithless => discard the both bloodghast
Turn 2 : Land => bring back the both bloodghast

But if you don’t draw a dredger with the faithless , your hand become incredibely slow ! even if you draw your dredge on turn two ( with the natural draw) you can’t discard it before the turn 3 ( with the flashback of faithless or conflagrate )
I think this hand is too risky