Comments on: Don’t Start the Fire, Put It Out: Modern Banlist Speculation https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Thu, 24 Nov 2016 11:29:19 +0000 hourly 1 By: Thomas Elfgren https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127298 Thu, 24 Nov 2016 11:29:19 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127298 In reply to Jason Schousboe.

If your articles doesn’t inform their decision making they’re idiots. Anyway, not discussing something because you don’t know for sure if it will happen seems a lot more illogical to me than discussing something you already know the answer to. So I don’t understand why we shouldn’t speculate just because we don’t know for sure what will happen.

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By: Joshua Dostine https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127297 Thu, 24 Nov 2016 05:05:05 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127297 In reply to Matt Spencer.

The problem with twin though is there was ONE blue deck. Every control deck starts blue, adds snapcaster, then obviously you need red for targets for snapcaster, so since you have red may as well run twin. It became stale.

I’d love to see twin again as an infect player my win rate was high. But it’s not gonna happen because of peoples wants

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By: Matt Spencer https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127296 Wed, 23 Nov 2016 19:13:39 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127296 They could solve a lot of problems by simply unbanning Splinter Twin. The complete removal of all Control presence (outside of one fluke event) has ushered in an era of Modern where the goal is to do as broken of a thing as possible as fast as possible. And the struggle control decks have is they simply cannot keep up. Twin allowed them to keep up, allowed them to fight this kind of degeneracy, and did so without every being oppressive. On top of all that, other forms of traditional control beat up on Twin handily; giving them more positive matchups overall. The health of the format in terms of archetype diversity was so much better when Twin was around, and bringing it back would at least help in bringing back that element to the game without having to completely dismantle and reforge the entire format.

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By: Jason Schousboe https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127295 Wed, 23 Nov 2016 15:33:59 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127295 In reply to Thomas Elfgren.

Responding to the last three comments here. I can understand your guys’ frustration with this article. Personally I feel that Modern can definitely use some tweaks, but I also think what David’s saying is true—it’s hard to know exactly how Wizards will apply their banlist philosophy, even if we do have a better understanding of it now that the Pro Tour wildcard has been removed.

For what it’s worth, I am skeptical that any of our past articles have informed Wizards’ decision making. Certainly discussion of stuff like the banlist in the community at large is something they take notice of, but I’m not sure we’re on their radar as a go-to source. Our data analysis serves more to describe their process post hoc, although I suppose if we can move the needle on their views that’s valuable too.

Finally, Sheridan has been busy with a new job, but he’s been in contact with me about writing an article or two. He pretty much has carte blanche to write as he sees fit, as pretty much everyone (myself included) loves to read his analyses. Unfortunately, I don’t really have the same expertise as him when it comes to quantitative analysis, so it’s hard for me to fill the gap. At this time I don’t have a good sense of when he’ll have another article ready (I’m not sure if he does either) but I know one is in the works.

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By: Thomas Elfgren https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127294 Wed, 23 Nov 2016 08:34:50 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127294 I agree with Darcy here. I think Modern Nexus had a big part in forcing WoTC’s hand after the Twin ban and I think Modern Nexus should continue to use it’s powers for the very same purpose if possible. You’re our voice.

While the sentiment in this article is perfectly fine the conclusion is quite… underwhelming. “Guys, don’t complain. Play spellskite”.

Where is Sheridan!?!?!?!?!?!

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By: Michael Warme https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127293 Wed, 23 Nov 2016 04:51:08 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127293 I dislike this article immensely, not because of what it contains or its premise, but because of what it represents.

Modern Nexus made its name as a data-driven website that put in the work for factual analysis and comparison, backed up with contextual interpretation of the results.

This article represents the exact opposite: contextual interpretation of information being used to avoid application of un-biased analysis of raw data. I can get that out of any MTG content website–maybe not as well reasoned or reasonable, and maybe not with the same quality of editing, but identical as far as information content goes.

And there are some objective numbers. I crunched the win %’s, the actual and effective kill turns, and the prevalence and effectiveness of dedicated hate for every dredge and infect match that’s been on camera at major events in the last month. Spoiler alert: Infect looks a lot more like grapeshot storm did before the seething song ban now than it did when I did this same look last year, Dredge on the other hand did not. Whether I think wizards very public dislike for dredge will prompt more severe action than might be actually necessary is another issue entirely, but you can use the same methods Sheridan did and draw your own conclusions from the data and the historical patterns of WOTC.

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By: Darcy Hartwick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127292 Tue, 22 Nov 2016 21:58:38 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127292 I remember when nexus used to put cards into the banlist criteria grinder to see if they were banworthy or not – those were interesting reads. I know twin was a shock, but in the wake of twin did wizards not come out with a statement of very transparent criteria and a vision for modern? Am I imagining that? It seems like the absolute wrong time to throw your hands in the air and say “who knows what wizards will do?!” and more like the time to be modern nexus and crunch the damn numbers.

Id want to know if dredge infect or ds zoo are breaking the rules or not (share, top 8s, turn 3 kills, etc). If they arent then sure “more spellskite yo” (dont forget your four surgicals and four artifact disrupting cards and some way to stop valakut and other combo decks too…) but if there are clear violators like amulet bloom was, telling people to suck it up and adapt is like standing in the middle of eldrazi winter telling folks everything is fine just play two copies of damnation main…

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By: Zach Stackhouse https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127291 Tue, 22 Nov 2016 19:35:18 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127291 You are right.

I have been guilty of complaining about problems far more than trying to solve them. Well, moreso complaining about the cost of solving them, but at some point it is just time to decide if I want to spend a little extra cash to win.

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/11/start-fire-banlist-speculation/#comment-2127290 Tue, 22 Nov 2016 19:11:15 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=12307#comment-2127290 I completely agree. Speculation is unproductive, and tends to go the way of people venting about cards they don’t like or games they feel they lost unfairly. I actually think that the way to fix the problem is an unban, not a ban. If you want to slow the format down, reintroduce Twin – it will keep all of those fast linears in check, and boost BGx’s profile by virtue of their head-to-head matchup. I’m not sure that this will happen, but I think it would actually fix some of the problems.

If nothing does happen, I propose to adapt – I’ve been long advocating that decks like Merfolk dedicate themselves to beating fast linear decks because of how comfortable I feel facing interactive decks. Spellskite is a good start, as are cards like Dispel and Remand (which blows out the likes of Become Immense or a flashback spell). If you make them your focus, you will do well.

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