Also don’t forget there’s a lot of concern in the Modern market because there’s so much unknown with MM17. Many reprints will happen again but we don’t know what yet. So players may be holding off on acquiring modern cards until they see spoilers. Lands may be an exception because thus far wizards hasn’t loaded a ton of value into these sets via land reprints.

Also there’s no Modern ProbTour hype.

I love your Old School observations. Other disappearing commons/uncommons from alpha and beta people should be aware of are Stone Rain, Fireball, Evil Preseence, and Black Knight. You really want your mind blown, find me the cheapest MP or better Beta Black Knight on the open market. It’s ludicrous.

Thanks for sharing your observations!

Think about it this way, let’s take a simple example and assume a period of overall stagnant prices, with some amount of individual cards increasing by 30%, some staying flat, and some decreasing by 30%. What would you expect to see? Most or all of the cards that increased will have been purchased (cause, hey, value), some of the cards that were flat will have been purchased (sometimes you just need that card, and if it’s market value, cool), and very few to none of the cards that decreased will have been purchased (I like that card, but I can buy it way cheaper online).

Then if you went to reprice, you’d notice a lot of items down by 30%. Your conclusion: wow, prices are falling by a lot. But that’s a faulty conclusion because of course the items that are overpriced will still be there, and the cards that have appreciated in value (i.e. are underpriced) are going to be less likely to be there.

I don’t disagree that the MTG singles market is probably a bit softer than it was 2-3 years ago, but I don’t think the “repricing the case and finding a lot of downward arrows” exercise is a relevant data point in determining the overall MTG market.