Comments on: Insider: Statistical Analysis of Commander Decks https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/insider-statistical-analysis-of-commander-decks/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:03:02 +0000 hourly 1 By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/insider-statistical-analysis-of-commander-decks/#comment-1870105 Mon, 08 May 2017 19:51:44 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=80773#comment-1870105 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

Gotcha you used dawnglare. Those numbers still come off odd though…(not blaming you for that), but it implies that most of the new Commander decks are worth over twice retail price..if that were the case stores would crack open decks to sell singles as they crack boxes to sell singles and the typical box EV is far less than 2x cost.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/insider-statistical-analysis-of-commander-decks/#comment-1870103 Mon, 08 May 2017 19:41:44 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=80773#comment-1870103 In reply to David Schumann.

Prices I used were TCG Low, shipped. Essentially it’s the lowest price on TCG Player in order to acquire the sealed product.

For the table of EV’s, I listed the source in the article. Here are some details from the site, below. Hope this answers your question but if not just let me know!

– Values are calculated assuming cards worth <$1 are worthless

– Shocklands add $14.49 to Dragon's Maze and Fetchlands add $28.39 to Fate Reforged (these ARE included in EV)

– Values don't take into account foils, Expeditions, or Masterpieces

– Expeditions would add $21.75 to BFZ and $12.82 to OotG set EV

– Masterpieces would add $15.58 to Kaladesh, $12.88 to Aether Revolt, and $10.80 to Amonkhet

– Most set values (boxes) are assumed to have 36 packs (Modern Masters each have 24, Fallen Empires has 60, Alliances has 45, Homelands has 60, Chronicles has 45)

– Switching to tcgLow can reveal interesting information about sets (like Homelands)

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/insider-statistical-analysis-of-commander-decks/#comment-1870073 Mon, 08 May 2017 17:03:47 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=80773#comment-1870073 For the commander 2016 prices did you just sum up all the cards in them or did you set a minimum price and only sum cards that exceeded it? I ask because the summation prices for those decks seems insanely high…implying that if you can sell a majority if the singles you might as well buy them at your local big box stores and sell the singles out of them…yet I don’t think that would be wise. What does it look like if you exclude all cards under $1?

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/insider-statistical-analysis-of-commander-decks/#comment-1870028 Mon, 08 May 2017 14:01:25 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=80773#comment-1870028 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

Ok did some quick research. MSRP is $164.99 and the set comes with 4 decks. That means each one will be roughly $41.25, which is coincidentally right where Plunder the Graves is listed for on TCG Players. So I’d bet this slows down growth a little bit, while at the same time re-kindling interest in Meren as a general. This probably reduces her ceiling in the short term, while making her a fine long-term hold.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/insider-statistical-analysis-of-commander-decks/#comment-1870027 Mon, 08 May 2017 13:56:06 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=80773#comment-1870027 In reply to Charles McNeil.

Good question. I had not realized this was in Anthology, thanks for raising the point.

How large is that print run and how available with product be at MSRP? It won’t help, and could explain why it’s trending cheaper than others.

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By: Charles McNeil https://www.quietspeculation.com/2017/05/insider-statistical-analysis-of-commander-decks/#comment-1870017 Mon, 08 May 2017 13:13:15 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=80773#comment-1870017 How does the Commander Anthology reprint of Plunder the Graves next month affect this idea?

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