It’s really not possible. I have to take out four cards minimum to begin with and that fundamentally alters a deck by itself. Tweaking numbers of the remaining cards was also necessary to actually have Bloodbraid make sense. Also, if I didn’t make changes to reflect the test card, I’d get hammered for playing bad decks. I’m trying to model the effect of the card and that requires some adaption.

“Personally id rather we just unban cards if it seems safe to do so, not based on any particular metagame status.”

But what is that preference based on? What would unbanning cards in that way “improve?” You can surely see how subjective it is.

Unbans are indeed a resource Wizards has access to, no matter how anyone feels about them. Speaking just as a Magic strategist, I’d think them foolish not to tap into and maximize that resource ^_^

I agree. Just ive heard both arguments – unbans should be done in periods of stability and unbans should be done to fix a problem or shake up a stale format. Personally id rather we just unban cards if it seems safe to do so, not based on any particular metagame status.

Id also like to see wizards be up front about trial unbans – ie we’re going to unban things, but be warned that if they prove problematic they will be put back on the banlist without hesitation. They could also just pay two guys to sit and play modern all day with potential unban candidates to get a much richer sample like david’s on how the card seems to be positioned. Unbanning cheap cards and then re-banning isnt too bad, but getting people to buy a set of jtms for 400 only to render them unplayable a few months later could cause some real feelbads. I feel like we saw that dynamic with eye of ugin – eldrazi was clearly getting a ban but if you wanted to play modern for that time you needed some fifty dollar eyes to do it. Same with bloom titan where most expected a ban and were reluctant to invest in the deck – which may have actually delayed the ban by suppressing how much play it saw.

I am curious if the pro tour makes something look banworthy whether that improves or weakens the likelihood of a bbe or sfm unban? Im looking at mox opal and grapeshot as cards that could put themselves in the croshairs by overperforming this weekend.

The metagame you’re describing looks most like 2015, after Birthing Pod (and Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time) were banned. Not perfectly but close enough. Before that Jund was struggling relative to Twin and Pod. Once the playing field had been leveled yes, Jund was highly competitive though if you look back Sheridan’s metagame updates or the MTGTop8 stats Jund was worse than Abzan.

I think we all remember Elfless Jund being better than it was because of how prevalent it was for so long, but as I’m going through the data from those periods I just don’t think it was ever that great. Good certainly, and I think a good Jund player is still intimidating to play against, but the deck doesn’t generate the stats to say that it is still as good as before.

Just stopping by to take issue with your last point—generally, situations that need fixing in Modern are much more efficiently/safely/surgically dealt with with a ban than with an unban, which is more of a stab in the dark. Wizards wants their moves to have a big impact, so if things are bad enough to warrant banlist changes, they’ll ban the offender, not unban other cards in hopes that they “solve” whatever problem.

We’ve seen this time and again with their previous banlist management; cards only come off the banlist in periods of stability. The single exception is GGT, which was unbanned not to “solve” any specific problem (indeed, its unban coincided with bans to problem cards), but because of its apparent safeness (at the time, it was something of a joke on the banlist), and likely in part to pacify Modernites upset at the major shakeup of a Twin ban.

I am just speaking from memory here but for a very long time tier one was something like twin jund infect affinity burn – and this was elfless shamanless jund. I mean new cards and other bans can have a huge impact on whats playable and whats good either for the deck itself or creating a favourable meta, but I believe that was a very long period in modern where jund was still tier one without elf or shaman. Then you look back and when it did have bbe it was tier one, so losing that card didnt turn it into a tier two deck so how much impact did the loss really have?

Jund not being tier one right now isnt due to a jund ban – its the rise of grixis shadow, and im not even sure what the key printing is that made this happen – stubborn denial? I think almost all of gds has been available in modern for a while so maybe its just a favourable meta? Because in the end whichever story was true at the time of bbe ban (it kept jund from being tier zero vs it was useles and unnecessary) what matters is how it changes junds position today.

I like to think the banlist is there for cards that break the format – not cards that shift the metagame. Because if we go down the latter path we can start saying “well its not really breaking format rules but maybe we should ban aether vial just to see if it makes a better overall modern experience”. On the other hand I see that unbans are a way to shakeup a stale or problematic period in the format, so theres something to be said for leaving seemingly innocuous cards on the ban list until a situation arises that an unban could actively solve.

But blood raid was the single most impactful of all the tested cards in this series. Bias doesn’t create data that way.

Honestly I’ve been struck by the low impact of stoneforge and preordain and Jace. Blood raid made a massive impact.

Perhaps you are the one that’s seeing what you want to see (bloodbraid being brought back)

Banning Bloodbraid and not printing Shaman absolutely would have torpedoed Jund. If you go look at the MTGTop8 stats for 2013, Jund was the top deck at 13% followed by Pod at 11% and Tron at 10% and Twin at 8%. Remember that Deathrite was legal for that whole year while Elf was banned in February. Then go to 2014. Deathrite was banned in February and Jund plummeted to 5%. Given the boost that Pod received from Voice of Resurgence I argue that absent Deathrite banning Bloodbraid alone would have booted Jund from Tier 1.

As for the sniff test, I agree. On its face there’s nothing wrong with Elf. The problem is how it interacts with the format. It’s like a turbocharger: on its own it does nothing but put it in something already powerful seriously boosts the power. That’s where the danger lies, taking good decks and making them overpowering.

I actually consider Stoneforge a more plausible unban than Bloodbraid because it’s a white card. White sees little play and Wizards has previously lamented this fact. Mystic could accomplish multiple goals while all Bloodbraid has ever done is make Jund great.

Because all the testing notwithstanding – bloodbraid still passes the sniff test. Its still just a 3/2 haste body. Pay four mana, bloodbraid into terminate swing. Pay four mana, snapcaster into terminate and block. We’re even. Pay four mana for a 3/2 cascade into a 4/5. Cool, company for four mana into a 6/6 kotr and a goyf of my own. I win?

As for homoginizing midrange around jund – I have the cure for what ails you, and its name is stoneforge mystic.

The unban is a giant emergency button to push when things get stale again, or midrange gets bad. And now isn’t the time to break glass in case of. But it’s nice knowing the option exists.

SFM or BBE, both are welcome and i am saying that as a diehard control enthusiast.

That said, with any currently banned card there’s so little we can do to accurately predict the outcome. In a way you’ve pushed the boundaries of testing these ideas to the extreme and even so, we’re able to sit here, have a beer and bat opposing ideas around because the data has such a small sample size.
Part of this is all the fun, but of course there’s a lot of players who just wouldn’t want to take the risk of unsettling what is currently a nice and relatively friendly metagame.

Maybe you’d agree or not but modern is the friendliest to fringe decks and brews than I can ever remember it being.

If unleashing the elf would threaten this wild west feel, an argument could be made to just not take any risk. I’m alright with it though. Then again, I’m not everyone ;).

Let’s assume that while perhaps homogenizing as a card for jund decks, it’s not “too” good for modern. Let’s also assume that while it will change the texture of some matchups (particularly those that require a good midgame boost to overcome powerful removal) that jund will still be jund. Permit me to take your testing with a grain of salt in terms of real world effect, due to variation in decklists, decklists adapting, new decks capitalising on a positive jund matchup etc etc etc. (although I do sincerely recognise the effort and time you put into this one. On that I must be clear. You are a champ)

I have no doubt that releasing the elf would smack the pendulum that is the modern metagame. For a while it would swing around a bit (and maybe even draw ire or doomsday rants from some people) but eventually settle again.

But I think there’s more going on. I really don’t think elf makes jund actually better. I think it makes it different. Different in a certain capacity which means a few top-tier matchups move a few percentage points but in that regard, no huge changes. Where I think we’ll see some real change is how jund then dominates the current tier 3 fringe decks out of existence. Currently it’s possible to sneak your way through jund as a fringe deck, although it can be tricky. What elf does is subtly alter the balance towards jund seeing just that bit deeper into its deck for hate cards like nihil spellbomb. This is the real hidden power of elf; as a force multiplier for sideboard cards.

It’s certainly an interesting conversation. I’m a proponent of having more choice and being OK with jund “being a deck” and seeing it maybe one in ten matchups or whatever. Doesn’t really change my experience although I will have the opportunity then to brew with a card I enjoy. In that regard my opinion isn’t data driven. I just like the card 🙂

All the best