July saw the Pro Tour, a Magic Online Showcase Challenge, and a Super RCQ. This is the highest concentration of big events Modern's had in a while, and as a result the data's tilted heavily towards the conclusions of the big events. Meanwhile, the Modern RCQ season is winding down. Back to Standard for the foreseeable future, for better or worse.

An Enduring Outlier

June's novel development continued in July. If this continues into August, it will officially be a trend. Boros Energy was the only outlier online again, and there were no outliers in paper. I'm not complaining, but the parallels to last summer are only growing stronger. As always, outliers are reported in their correct position on the metagame charts but are removed from the data analysis.

July Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck "should" produce in a given month. To be considered a tiered deck, it must perform better than "good enough". Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list.

Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and the cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks that perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least two standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks.

The Magic Online data nearly exclusively comes from official results. Leagues are excluded, as they add analytically useless, non-random bulk data to both the population and power tiers. The paper data comes from any source I can find, with all reported events being counted.

While the MTGO events report predictable numbers, paper events can report anything from only the winner to all the results. In the latter case, if match results aren't included, I'll take as much of the Top 32 as possible. If match results are reported, I'll take winning record up to Top 32, and then any additional decks tied with 32nd place, as tiebreakers are a magic most foul and black.

The MTGO Population Data

July's adjusted average population for MTGO is 14.50. I always round down if the decimal is less than .20. Tier 3, therefore, begins with decks posting 15 results. The adjusted STdev was 26.84, so add 27 and that means Tier 3 runs to 42 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then the next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 43 results and runs to 70. Subsequently, to make Tier 1 requires 71 decks. Coincidentally, this is exactly the same as June's metrics.

The upward trend continues! July managed 1824 results, up considerably from June's 1664. The presence of both the big events and Last Chance Qualifiers pushed it over the top. Concurrently, unique decks rose from 101 to 113, so the unique deck ratio rose from .0607 to .0620. That's closer to MTGO's usual average, but I'm concerned that we're after a major ban and still below February's .0741, or even January's .0625. In fact, MTGO in 2026 has generally fallen below the historic average of .065. 27 decks made the Tier List, up from 24 in June.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
Boros Energy	200	10.96
Broodscale Combo	137	7.51
Goryo Blink	135	7.40
Weapons Manufacturing	94	5.15
Izzet Prowess	92	5.04
Colorless Etron	90	4.93
Ruby Storm	89	4.88
Tier 2
Boros Ponza	66	3.62
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	56	3.07
Grixis Reanimator	53	2.91
Amulet Titan	52	2.85
Domain Zoo	51	2.80
Dimir Tempo	51	2.80
Neobrand	51	2.80
Living End	50	2.74
UW Control	49	2.69
Tier 3
Tameshi Belcher	31	1.70
Hollowvine	30	1.64
Yawgmoth	26	1.42
Esper Blink	24	1.32
Cosmo Thud	24	1.32
Jeskai Control	22	1.21
Green-Based Eldrazi	22	1.21
Burn	20	1.10
UW Blink	18	0.99
Ketramose Frog	18	0.99
Dimir Control	17	0.93

The usual suspects continue to dominate Modern, but Weapons Manufacturing continues to slip. I suspect that its consistency issues are worse than expected, especially in the face of the combo-heavy metagame the Pro Tour promoted. You can't stumble or misfire in a field of Neobrand, Goryo Blink, and Broodscale Combo. Also, with Emrakul, the Promised End seeing heavy play makes those Munitions tokens liabilities. I'll be discussing the Pro Tour's effect more in the analysis section.

The Paper Population Data

While paper had a strong month, it was never going to compete with June's high of 1054 decks, instead just hitting 787. RCQ seasons always tend to be front loaded. Or potentially the early ones are just more likely to report their results. Same end result, though the latter is deeply irritating. Anyway, unique decks naturally fell 88 to 81 for a ratio of .103, up significantly from June's .083. That's a pretty strong showing, but the middle of RCQ season usually has players feeling more experimental than at the start.

23 decks made the Tier List this month, which is up from June's 22. This is likely a direct result of the July's higher diversity. The unadjusted average population is 9.72 so the List starts at 10. The STDev is 16.15, so the increment is 16. Therefore, Tier 3 runs from 10 to 26, Tier 2 is 27 to 43 and Tier 1 is 44 and over.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
Izzet Prowess	77	9.78
Boros Energy	71	9.02
Weapons Manufacturing	66	8.39
Goryo Blink	51	6.48
Broodscale Combo	46	5.84
Tier 2
Esper Blink	33	4.19
Living End	33	4.19
Colorless Eldrazi	32	4.07
Amulet Titan	27	3.43
Tier 3
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	25	3.18
Ruby Storm	24	3.05
Domain Zoo	24	3.05
Boros Ponza	23	2.92
Neobrand	16	2.03
Tameshi Belcher	15	1.91
Grixis Reanimator	15	1.91
UW Control	13	1.65
Yawgmoth	13	1.65
Burn	13	1.65
Green-Based Eldrazi	12	1.52
Dimir Tempo	12	1.52
Sam's Ritual	11	1.40
Jeskai Control	11	1.40

Energy had a very strange month in paper. It had a fairly middling start but did fairly well at the Pro Tour, which helped boost it from low to mid-Tier 1. It managed to take the second slot during the last week of July thanks to a late push and Weapons' popularity just plummeting.

On that note, Izzet Prowess taking the top slot is incredibly impressive. Despite having a fairly average Pro Tour, it maintained a very convincing lead thanks to a strong showing in the RCQs. Prowess is an unsung hero this season. It Top 8's RCQs at a very high rate, frequently in pairs or more. I don't think it wins more often than other decks but just getting to elimination rounds consistently is impressive enough. Especially as the metagame moves towards combo decks.

July Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame so that a deck that just squeaks into Top 32 isn't valued the same as one that Top 8's. This better reflects metagame potential.

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries and similar events award points based on record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5), and Challenges are scored 3 points for the Top 8, 2 for Top 16, and 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players.

Paper's point work differently than MTGO's due to inconsistent reporting and frequent data gaps. Points are awarded based on tournament size rather than placement because most events report the Top 8, at most. For events with no reported starting population or up to 32 players, one point is awarded to every reported deck. Events with 33 players up to 128 players get two points. From 129 players up to 512 players get three. Above 512 is four points, and five points is reserved for Modern Pro Tours. To make the paper results as comparable to MTGO as possible, I take every deck in the Top 32 and those tied for 32nd place when they're available.

The MTGO Power Tiers

July's total points rose to 3252 from 3008. The extra big events really helped, especially since there was another 5-point event. It's been a while since there were consecutive months with 5-point events. The adjusted average points were 25.80, therefore 26 points made Tier 3. The adjusted STDev was 48.31 so add 49 to the starting point, and Tier 3 runs to 75 points. Tier 2 starts with 76 points and runs to 125. Tier 1 requires at least 126 points. There was a lot of internal movement, but no deck managed to switch Tiers from population, though Tyvar Combo joined the list.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
Boros Energy	362	11.13
Broodscale Combo	248	7.63
Goryo Blink	238	7.32
Ruby Storm	169	5.20
Colorless Etron	168	5.17
Weapons Manufacturing	162	4.98
Izzet Prowess	158	4.86
Tier 2
Boros Ponza	122	3.75
Amulet Titan	97	2.98
Domain Zoo	97	2.98
Dimir Tempo	95	2.92
UW Control	93	2.86
Grixis Reanimator	92	2.83
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	90	2.77
Living End	89	2.74
Neobrand	86	2.64
Tier 3
Tameshi Belcher	56	1.72
Yawgmoth	55	1.69
Hollowvine	54	1.66
Green-Based Eldrazi	46	1.41
Esper Blink	44	1.35
Cosmo Thud	37	1.14
Jeskai Control	37	1.14
Ketramose Frog	32	0.98
Burn	30	0.92
UW Blink	30	0.92
Dimir Control	30	0.92
Tyvar Combo	26	0.80

The online community appears to have concluded that ramp(ish) strategies are the place to be, judging by Broodscale holding second place while Colorless Etron, Amulet Titan, Yawgmoth, Green-Based Eldrazi, and Tyvar all moved up the rankings moving from population to power. That Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing fell is an interesting counterpoint, but I intend to cover that in Analysis.

The Paper Power Tiers

Paper's total points fell from June's 1622 to 1455. While the Pro Tour provided a huge point boost, there weren't the side events a la SCG events that really bring the numbers up. The unadjusted average points were 17.96, setting the cutoff at 18 points. The STDev was 31.76, so add 32 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 50 points. Tier 2 starts with 51 points and runs to 83. Tier 1 requires at least 84 points. Tier 1 didn't change at all, but Tiers 2-3 were very dynamic. Both Dimir Tempo and Jeskai Control fell off the Power Tier, with Necro making the list.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
Boros Energy	138	9.48
Izzet Prowess	136	9.35
Weapons Manufacturing	129	8.87
Goryo Blink	110	7.56
Broodscale Combo	107	7.35
Tier 2
Colorless Eldrazi	59	4.05
Amulet Titan	58	3.99
Esper Blink	56	3.85
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	55	3.78
Ruby Storm	53	3.64
Living End	52	3.57
Tier 3
Boros Ponza	43	2.95
Neobrand	43	2.95
Domain Zoo	41	2.82
UW Control	31	2.13
Green-Based Eldrazi	22	1.51
Sam's Ritual	22	1.51
Yawgmoth	21	1.44
Tameshi Belcher	20	1.37
Grixis Reanimator	19	1.31
Necro	19	1.31
Burn	18	1.24

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus was first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and pa

per data, but the math of that system doesn't work without big paper events. I tried. Instead, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement.

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug, but a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category, they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.

Deck Name	MTGO Pop Tier	MTGO Power Tier	MTGO Average Tier	Paper Pop Tier	Paper Power Tier	Paper Average Tier	Composite Tier/strong>
Boros Energy	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Broodscale Combo	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Goryo Blink	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Weapons Manufacturing	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Izzet Prowess	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Colorless Etron	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.50
Ruby Storm	1	1	1	3	2	2.5	1.75
Amulet Titan	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Living End	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	2	2	2	3	2	2.5	2.25
Domain Zoo	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Boros Ponza	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Grixis Reanimator	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Neobrand	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
UW Control	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Esper Blink	3	3	3	2	2	2	2.50
Dimir Tempo	2	2	2	3	N/A	3.5	2.75
Tameshi Belcher	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Yawgmoth	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Green-Based Eldrazi	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Burn	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Jeskai Control	3	3	3	3	N/A	3.5	3.25
Hollowvine	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Cosmo Thud	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
UW Blink	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Ketramose Frog	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Dimir Control	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Sam's Ritual	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Tyvar Combo	N/A	3	3.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.75
Necro	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3.5	3.75

Average Power Rankings

Finally we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking the total points earned and dividing them by total decks, to measure points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. While you can make a Wins-Above-Replacement-esq metric for the Magic cards in an individual deck, there's no way to make one that lets you compare decks. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual.

Using the power rankings helps to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Therefore, the top tier doesn't move much between population and power and obscures whether its decks really earned their position. 

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better.

A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, whereas low averages result from mediocre performances and a high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. Bear this in mind and be careful about reading too much into these results. However, as a general rule, decks that place above the baseline average are over-performing, and vice versa.

How far above or below that average a deck sits justifies its position on the power tiers. Decks well above baseline are undervalued, while decks well below baseline are very popular, but aren't necessarily good.

The Real Story

The key to the average points is how far off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average points). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its "true" potential.

A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from the average, the more a deck under or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite of this.

We'll start with MTGO's averages:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Yawgmoth	2.11	3
Green-Based Eldrazi	2.09	3
Ruby Storm	1.90	1
Domain Zoo	1.90	2
UW Control	1.90	2
Colorless Etron	1.87	1
Amulet Titan	1.86	2
Dimir Tempo	1.86	2
Tyvar Combo	1.86	3
Boros Ponza	1.85	2
Esper Blink	1.83	3
Boros Energy	1.81	1
Broodscale Combo	1.81	1
Tameshi Belcher	1.81	3
Hollowvine	1.80	3
Living End	1.78	2
Ketramose Frog	1.78	3
Goryo Blink	1.76	1
Dimir Control	1.76	3
Baseline	1.75
Grixis Reanimator	1.74	2
Weapons Manufacturing	1.72	1
Izzet Prowess	1.72	1
Neobrand	1.69	2
Jeskai Control	1.68	3
UW Blink	1.67	3
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	1.61	2
Cosmo Thud	1.54	3
Burn	1.50	3

The winner of MTGO Deck of July is Ruby Storm. You never see it coming, but that's how it pulls it off. Never discount Storm or it will do Storm things to you.

Now the paper averages:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Neobrand	2.69	3
UW Control	2.38	3
Broodscale Combo	2.33	1
Ruby Storm	2.22	2
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	2.20	2
Goryo Blink	2.16	1
Amulet Titan	2.15	2
Necro	2.11	3
Sam's Ritual	2.00	3
Weapons Manufacturing	1.95	1
Boros Energy	1.94	1
Boros Ponza	1.87	3
Colorless Eldrazi	1.84	2
Green-Based Eldrazi	1.83	3
Izzet Prowess	1.77	1
Domain Zoo	1.71	3
Esper Blink	1.70	2
Baseline	1.62
Yawgmoth	1.61	3
Living End	1.57	2
Burn	1.38	3
Jeskai Control	1.36	N/A
Tameshi Belcher	1.33	3
Grixis Reanimator	1.27	3
Dimir Tempo	1.25	N/A

Meanwhile, Broodscale is the paper Deck of July. It did this in June, too, but its Pro Tour performance basically made it inevitable.

Analysis

The big story for July is the Pro Tour. While we didn't get a Modern Top 8 playoff, 6/8 Top 8 players were on some form of combo deck, with 4/8 playin Kozilek's Command. The other two decks were Boros Energy. That fact has largely been buried under the rest of the narrative, primarily because Energy was tied for most popular deck with Weapons Manufacturing. Given the two decks' low overall winrate, there's been talk that the metagame has left them behind. It's combo's Modern now.

This is...incredibly premature. Has everyone forgotten PT Edge of Eternities? We said the same things after Tameshi Belcher won handily, and Boros underperformed that time, especially compared to all the combo decks. Energy didn't even make Top 8 and then had several down months. And YET. Energy always bounces back. There's no reason to think that won't happen this time too. That said, it's certain that for the next month or so the belief in combo supremacy will hold and the metagame will cycle accordingly.

Broodscale's Revival

On that note, Broodscale had by far the best win rate among the actually popular decks and pilot Eduardo Sajgalik had the best individual record in constructed. That is very impressive for a deck that was dead online and on life support in paper back in March and April. This resurgence has almost nothing to do with the deck's merits. Jeskai Blink absolutely smothered Broodscale because it had no defense against a deck with maindeck that maindecked a full set of Consign to Memory, backed it up with Phlage, Titan of Nature's Fury plus other threats, and had access to Wrath of the Skies. Broodscale can breathe now, and it's stretching its wings magnificently.

However, that does beg the question of how long Broodscale can maintain its position. We do know how to beat it, though replacing Phlage is difficult. Boros Ponza has a very good matchup against it, though the deck suffers from a worst matchup spread than Jeskai did. We're seeing blue decks trickle back into the metagame due to Energy falling off, so I suspect Broodscale is in for hard times. I'd guess we'll find out in August if Phlage was critical to keeping Broodscale down, or if was just the maindeck Consigns.

Spike Did a Thing Again

One the flip side, there was Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing. Had I expected it to ever make the Tier List, I'd have used a shorter name on the Excel sheet, but here I am. To my surprise, it did make the online List in June, though nobody commented on it, nor it not appearing in paper. We've been down this road with Spike's decks before so I, and I'd guess most others, expected it to have one moment in the sun and then disappear forever. That's the fate of most decks he makes/promotes.

And for most of July, I was right. The Mono-Green Thing didn't post a single result in any Challenge from June 27th to July 16th. Then the Pro Tour decks were posted, and everyone saw that 9 players were on the Thing. Consequently, it reappeared July 17th and posted about two-thirds of its total results in a week, peaking during the LCQs. Apparently, players were banking that it having the best win rate of any deck non-singleton deck meant it was busted. They were sorely disappointed, and Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing's average points show it severely underperformed. This didn't happen in paper because of how many points it got at the Pro Tour.

Part of the problem was that players read too much into those PT results. 9 players in a field of hundreds are statistical noise. The other issue is that, in my experience, if the deck doesn't have a ferocious Fanatic of Rhonas on turn 3, it plays like a clunkier version of Broodscale or normal Green-based Eldrazi. It's unique selling point is free Emrakul, the Promised End, which is terrifying but not necessarily game ending. I do play Boros Ponza, my perspective might be skewed. I'm not saying the deck is bad, but I am saying that it didn't reward its pilot's faith in July. We'll see if August changes anything.

Is it Combo Late Summer?

In a more general sense, decks with at least some combo elements did very well in Amsterdam, followed by a late surge of combo decks online and at RCQs. There's almost certainly a causal link between these events because, again, we saw this after PT EoE. For some reason, combo has always done really well at Modern PTs, even if it's bad in the overall metagame. Consequently, I don't think that Modern will be so combo-centric for very long. Dimir Tempo and UW Control had good last halves of July after an anemic first half. As has happened before, I expect Counterspell decks to gradually push combo down until Energy is able to reassert itself against the midrange decks and take over again.

However, that will take time. In the immediate future, if your area still has Modern RCQs, I'd strongly urge you to have maindeck Consign to Memory and be ready to exile graveyards. Rest in Peace is still a card against all the reanimator strategies and surprisingly good against Emrakul. I suspect Kozilek's Command to be the card of early August, though I doubt that will hold all month.

Financial Implications

While it doesn't have any cards that look like Modern staples, The Hobbit is going to sell gangbusters.

The Tolkien nuts from LoTR will be back in force, and there's a lot for non-Eternal players to like. Demand will be very high, but I don't think there will be many arbitrage opportunities with the sealed product.

A lot of LGS' are taking anti-scalper measures and limiting both the amount you can buy and opening the product prior to sale. If you can get sealed product from wholesalers, you can still profit on resale, but, for everyone else, it's back to doing it the old-fashioned way of selling singles. T

his will be tricky, as there are a lot of cards that I'd expect to fall in the $2-5 range once the prerelease hype dies down, but none that scream big earners. The mythics look cool, but that is never predictive of final price.