August is a transitional month. The last few Modern RCQs fired, the online metagame has gone wild, and the first in a series of major Modern paper events happened. The metagame has consequently ended up in a very weird place that might represent a new normal, but it's equally possible this a steam-pressure blowout and the establish status quo will repair itself.

For the moment, enjoy the chaos.

The Outliers Are Unusual

Since I started doing these monthly updates, it's been pretty rare to not have outliers, particularly on Magic Online. The nature of the metagames we've had, coupled with how MTGO is, has consistently ensured one deck running away with it all while several others ride its coattails. For the first time in a long time, there were no online outliers. Goryo Blink came very close to being one but didn't actually get over the line. Well done? I guess?

Paper is another matter. It's had far more months without outliers and hadn't had one since May when August produced two: Goryo Blink and Izzet Prowess. Goryo was actually exactly over the line; one fewer result and it wouldn't be an outlier. The data is just weird like this sometimes.

As aways, outliers are removed during the analysis but are reported in their correct place on the Tier List.

August Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck "should" produce in a given month. To be considered a tiered deck, it must perform better than "good enough". Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list.

Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and the cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks that perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least two standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks.

The Magic Online data nearly exclusively comes from official results. Leagues are excluded, as they add analytically useless, non-random bulk data to both the population and power tiers. The paper data comes from any source I can find, with all reported events being counted.

While the MTGO events report predictable numbers, paper events can report anything from only the winner to all the results. In the latter case, if match results aren't included, I'll take as much of the Top 32 as possible. If match results are reported, I'll take winning record up to Top 32, and then any additional decks tied with 32nd place, as tiebreakers are a magic most foul and black.

The MTGO Population Data

August's unadjusted average population for MTGO is 16.13. I always round down if the decimal is less than .20. Tier 3, therefore, begins with decks posting 16 results. The adjusted STdev was 32.41, so add 33 and that means Tier 3 runs to 49 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then the next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 50 results and runs to 83. Subsequently, to make Tier 1 requires 4 decks. Coincidentally, this is exactly the same as June's metrics.

The upward trend continues but now has an asterisk. August has 1856 results, exactly one more event's worth over July's 1824 results. Daybreak has redone how Challenge prizing works, which should lead to more Challenges firing. I therefore expect the population data to a higher average population going forward, which will mean more valid data while making high populations less impressive. Unique decks rose from 113 to 115, so the unique deck ratio held steady at .0620. That's still really low compared to February's .0741, or even January's .0625, and I'm concerned that we're still below MTGO's historic average of .065. 25 decks made the Tier List, down from 27 in June.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
Goryo Blink	172	9.27
Izzet Prowess	146	7.87
Broodscale Combo	143	7.709
Tyvar Combo	130	7.00
Esper Blink	125	6.73
Boros Energy	96	5.17
Tier 2
Weapons Manufacturing	65	3.50
Dimir Tempo	65	3.50
Living End	63	3.39
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	52	2.80
Ruby Storm	52	2.80
Neobrand	51	2.75
Tier 3
Domain Zoo	48	2.59
Ketramose Frog	46	2.48
Colorless Etron	40	2.15
Boros Ponza	40	2.15
Hollowvine	38	2.053
UW Control	33	1.78
Grixis Reanimator	29	1.56
Jeskai energy	27	1.45
Tameshi Belcher	26	1.40
Amulet Titan	24	1.29
Green-Based Eldrazi	23	1.24
Izzet Cutter	20	1.08
Necro	18	0.97

August's headline is that Boros Energy isn't the #1 deck online anymore. I'm going to spend most of the Analysis section discussing this development, so we're moving on for now.

Weapons Manufacturing continues to slide down the Tier List as combo decks continue to do well. However, Ruby Storm is in trouble. It's always odd to consider, but Storm frequently suffers when other combo decks are succeeding. The exact reasons vary, but it's usually a combination of splash damage and being slower than other combos. In this case, I strongly suspect High Noon seeing play against Prowess is the primary culprit.

The Paper Population Data

Lack of many big events coupled with shifting competitive focus means that paper's population continues to decline, down to 670 from July's 787. This trend will reverse next month due to the RCs. That said, unique decks actually rose from 81 to 82 for a ratio of .122, up from July's .103, which is really high for summer 2026 but down from its historic range around .150. This is a positive sign, but one month does not a trend reversal make.

24 decks made the Tier List this month, which is up from July's 23. Boros having fallen off, a lot of pent-up brewing pressure is getting released. The adjusted average population is 6.82 so the List starts at 7. The adjusted STDev is 9.69, so the increment is 10. Therefore, Tier 3 runs from 7 to 17, Tier 2 is 18 to 28 and Tier 1 is 29 and over.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
Izzet Prowess	63	9.40
Goryo Blink	61	9.10
Broodscale Combo	47	7.01
Boros Energy	41	6.12
Tyvar Combo	35	5.22
Weapons Manufacturing	30	4.48
Tier 2
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	26	3.88
Esper Blink	24	3.58
Amulet Titan	23	3.43
Dimir Tempo	23	3.43
Domain zoo	23	3.43
Living End	21	3.13
Ruby Storm	20	2.98
Tier 3
Colorless Etron	14	2.09
Grixis Reanimator	12	1.79
UW Control	11	1.64
Green-Based Eldrazi	10	1.49
Neobrand	10	1.49
Yawgmoth	9	1.34
UW Blink	8	1.19
Necro	8	1.19
Tameshi Belcher	8	1.19
Hollowvine	7	1.04
Boros Ponza	7	1.04

Prowess continues its surge to the top. This is directly connected to Energy's fall, as I'll discuss later.

Meanwhile, Tyvar Combo has come from nowhere to make Tier 1 in both paper and MTGO. I have no idea why, so I'm blaming Aspiring Spike and Badgermole Cub being banned in Standard until someone corrects me. I also think that its moment has already passed. 2/3s of the MTGO results came in the first two weeks of August, then it just died off. Tyvar earned its position in paper from sporadic multiple finishes and didn't perform very well in big events. Results from the first week in September aren't promising.

August Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame so that a deck that just squeaks into Top 32 isn't valued the same as one that Top 8's. This better reflects metagame potential.

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries and similar events award points based on record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5), and Challenges are scored 3 points for the Top 8, 2 for Top 16, and 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players.

Paper's point work differently than MTGO's due to inconsistent reporting and frequent data gaps. Points are awarded based on tournament size rather than placement because most events report the Top 8, at most. For events with no reported starting population or up to 32 players, one point is awarded to every reported deck. Events with 33 players up to 128 players get two points. From 129 players up to 512 players get three. Above 512 is four points, and five points is reserved for Modern Pro Tours. To make the paper results as comparable to MTGO as possible, I take every deck in the Top 32 and those tied for 32nd place when they're available.

The MTGO Power Tiers

July's total points rose to 3008 to 3312. Super Qualifiers and a Showcase Challenge caused the huge bump, above what an extra event would have provided. Theaverage points were 28.80, therefore 29 points made Tier 3. The adjusted STDev was 59.15 so add 59 to the starting point, and Tier 3 runs to 88 points. Tier 2 starts with 89 points and runs to 148. Tier 1 requires at least 149 points. The only notable changes from population are Storm and Neobrand falling into Tier 3.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
Goryo Blink	316	9.54
Izzet Prowess	260	7.85
Broodscale Combo	259	7.82
Esper Blink	254	7.67
Tyvar Combo	227	6.85
Boros Energy	174	5.25
Tier 2
Dimir Tempo	128	3.86
Living End	112	3.38
Weapons Manufacturing	107	3.23
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	93	2.81
Tier 3
Ruby Storm	83	2.51
Domain Zoo	83	2.51
Neobrand	81	2.45
Ketramose Frog	79	2.38
Boros Ponza	75	2.26
Colorless Etron	70	2.11
Hollowvine	65	1.96
Grixis Reanimator	54	1.63
UW Control	53	1.60
Tameshi Belcher	53	1.60
Jeskai energy	51	1.54
Green-Based Eldrazi	43	1.30
Izzet Cutter	41	1.24
Amulet Titan	38	1.15
Necro	33	1.00

The online community has completely reversed itself. Last month it was obsessed with ramp strategies, and now they're largely gone. Tyvar pushed every other ramp deck out of its way during its meteoric rise. Since Tyvar wasn't doing well at the end of August, I expect this to reverse again in September. Notably, Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing is in basically the same position as in July. This might just be its niche.

Also, Goryo's points are a bit misleading. Its population numbers were always on track for the top slot, but it was actually doing quite poorly on points. Had the trend continued, its average points would have been well below baseline. It was saved during the last week and a half by a string of Top 8s and a very strong showing in the Showcase Challenge. As such, I think there are question marks over its head. September will be decisive.

The Paper Power Tiers

Paper's total points fell from 1455 to 1032. This isn't at all surprising given the population data and September will be very different. The adjusted average points were 10.59, setting the cutoff at 11 points. The adjusted STDev is exactly 16, so add that to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 27 points. Tier 2 starts with 28 points and runs to 44. Tier 1 requires at least 45 points. The only change from population is UW Blink fell off. Nothing replaced it.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
Izzet Prowess	93	9.01
Goryo Blink	92	8.91
Broodscale Combo	77	7.46
Boros Energy	68	6.59
Tyvar Combo	58	5.62
Weapons Manufacturing	48	4.65
Tier 2
Dimir Tempo	44	4.26
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	42	4.07
Amulet Titan	41	3.97
Esper Blink	38	3.68
Living End	34	3.29
Domain zoo	32	3.10
Ruby Storm	28	2.71
Tier 3
Colorless Etron	19	1.84
Grixis Reanimator	18	1.74
Green-Based Eldrazi	16	1.55
Neobrand	16	1.55
UW Control	15	1.45
Yawgmoth	13	1.26
Necro	13	1.26
Boros Ponza	13	1.26
Tameshi Belcher	11	1.07
Hollowvine	11	1.07

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus was first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and pa

per data, but the math of that system doesn't work without big paper events. I tried. Instead, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement.

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug, but a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category, they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.

Deck Name	MTGO Pop Tier	MTGO Power Tier	MTGO Average Tier	Paper Pop Tier	Paper Power Tier	Paper Average Tier	Baseline
Goryo Blink	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Izzet Prowess	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Broodscale Combo	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Tyvar Combo	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Boros Energy	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Esper Blink	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.50
Weapons Manufacturing	2	2	2	1	1	1	1.50
Dimir Tempo	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Living End	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Ruby Storm	2	3	2.5	2	2	2	2.25
Domain Zoo	3	3	3	2	2	2	2.50
Amulet Titan	3	3	3	2	2	2	2.50
Neobrand	2	3	2.5	3	3	3	2.75
Colorless Etron	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Boros Ponza	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
UW Control	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Grixis Reanimator	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Tameshi Belcher	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Green-Based Eldrazi	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Necro	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Ketramose Frog	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Hollowvine	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Jeskai energy	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Izzet Cutter	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Yawgmoth	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
UW Blink	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	N/A	3.5	3.75

Average Power Rankings

Finally we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking the total points earned and dividing them by total decks, to measure points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. While you can make a Wins-Above-Replacement-esq metric for the Magic cards in an individual deck, there's no way to make one that lets you compare decks. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual.

Using the power rankings helps to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Therefore, the top tier doesn't move much between population and power and obscures whether its decks really earned their position. 

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better.

A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, whereas low averages result from mediocre performances and a high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. Bear this in mind and be careful about reading too much into these results. However, as a general rule, decks that place above the baseline average are over-performing, and vice versa.

How far above or below that average a deck sits justifies its position on the power tiers. Decks well above baseline are undervalued, while decks well below baseline are very popular, but aren't necessarily good.

The Real Story

The key to the average points is how far off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average points). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its "true" potential.

A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from the average, the more a deck under or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite of this.

We'll start with MTGO's averages:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Izzet Cutter	2.05	3
Tameshi Belcher	2.04	3
Esper Blink	2.03	1
Dimir Tempo	1.97	2
Jeskai energy	1.89	3
Boros Ponza	1.87	3
Green-Based Eldrazi	1.87	3
Grixis Reanimator	1.86	3
Goryo Blink	1.84	1
Necro	1.83	3
Boros Energy	1.81	1
Broodscale Combo	1.81	1
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	1.79	2
Izzet Prowess	1.78	1
Living End	1.78	2
Tyvar Combo	1.75	1
Colorless Etron	1.75	3
Domain Zoo	1.73	3
Ketramose Frog	1.72	3
Hollowvine	1.71	3
Baseline	1.70
Weapons Manufacturing	1.65	2
UW Control	1.61	3
Ruby Storm	1.60	3
Neobrand	1.59	3
Amulet Titan	1.58	3

The winner of MTGO Deck of August is Esper Blink. This is connected to Energy's fall and will be discussed shortly.

Now the paper averages:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Dimir Tempo	1.91	2
Boros Ponza	1.86	3
Amulet Titan	1.78	2
Boros Energy	1.658	1
Tyvar Combo	1.657	1
Broodscale Combo	1.64	1
Living End	1.62	2
Necro	1.62	3
Spike's Latest Mono-Green Thing	1.61	2
Weapons Manufacturing	1.60	1
Green-Based Eldrazi	1.60	3
Neobrand	1.60	3
Esper Blink	1.58	2
Hollowvine	1.57	3
Goryo Blink	1.51	1
Grixis Reanimator	1.50	3
Izzet Prowess	1.48	1
Baseline	1.46
Yawgmoth	1.44	3
Ruby Storm	1.40	2
Domain zoo	1.39	2
Tameshi Belcher	1.37	3
Colorless Etron	1.36	3
UW Control	1.36	3
UW Blink	1.25	N/A

Meanwhile, Energy is the paper Deck of August. By the slimmest possible margin. I had to leave one extra digit to show that it wasn't just by alphabetical order, it actually legitimately just beat out Tyvar.

Analysis

I stated in July's Analysis that Energy would likely continue to decline due to the Pro Tour being won by combo. August vindicated that remark but, it's not quite that simple. The August metagame is the result of multiple metagame shifts and some external factors colliding. The apparently simple question of what will happen to Boros Energy and the rest of the metagame is consequently effectively unanswerable.

The Initial Shift

The instigator of all this change was the Pro Tour. Everyone focused on half the Top 8 being Kozilek's Command decks, alongside two combo decks, seemingly ignoring the fact that Boros Energy also put two players in Top 8. The fact that the top performing Modern decks were primarily combo or at least combo-ish decks reinforced the narrative.

Before the Pro Tour, Energy performed at roughly the same levels that we saw after Phlage got banned. After the Pro Tour, it declined significantly. Around the middle of August, it stopped appearing in every Challenge. By the end, Energy had largely disappeared entirely from the online metagame. Meanwhile, in paper it was performing equivalently to June and July.

The Cause

As I've noted before, Energy took a hit after last year's Pro Tour but bounced back quite strongly. This is a severe decline, especially for an online metagame that it had so thoroughly dominated in June. A lot of fingers get pointed at Goryo Blink because it's surging and has always been one of Energy's only bad matchups. However, if that was enough to knock off Energy, Goryo would have done this long ago. While it's true that losing Phlage made Energy worse overall, it didn't impact the Goryo matchup enough to be causal.

Instead, the finger should point at Izzet Prowess. Historically and from personal experience, Prowess had a bad matchup against Energy, and it was mostly Phlage's fault. Prowess is pretty good at pushing through incremental lifegain thanks to its massive burst damage. However, Phlage is a chunk of lifegain tied to a removal spell. If Energy was alive on turn three, Phlage was the best play to make as it regained up to four life and forced Prowess to either burn spells for prowess triggers or lose one of its scarce threats. Prowess hates using spells defensively, making the play quite devastating. If Phlage ever attacked, that was just game.

With Phlage gone, the matchup has shifted in Prowess' favor, which means that Prowess began muscling it out. Prowess has always had a chilling effect on other aggro decks because it can win without much board presence and in a single, massive damage explosion. It also has better matchups against combo while playing more like combo than aggro, which makes it more socially acceptable during combo-centric metagame narratives. This matters more than it should.

The Cycle

However, as in any ecosystem, there are additional impacts to the dominant predator's decline. Esper Blink came roaring back in August because it has good matchups against both Prowess and Goryo's. Blinking Solitude is really good against decks that want to win with only a few creatures on board, who knew? Blink's worst matchup by far is Boros Ponza, but Ponza can't reliably beat Psychic Frog plus Counterspell, which means Dimir Tempo is climbing up the Tier List. That Counterspell is strong against all the ramp decks certainly helps.

Do you happen to know what deck is strong versus Counterspell, most ramp decks, and Esper Blink while not being a complete dog to Ponza?

Why, it's Boros Energy, of course.

This hasn't happened yet but given what the metagame cycle is currently doing (primarily online due to it having more tournaments more often) I actually expect Boros to do well in September. There's a predator-prey cycle at work, so as Energy's prey returns, we should see it at minimum stabilize among the Tier 1 decks if not return to the top of the food chain.

The Catch

However, there's another factor that might be fatal for Boros Energy. Energy was handed to us, prepackaged, in June 2024. Since then, it has always been one of if not the best Tier 1 deck in Modern. August was the first time that Energy wasn't at minimum in the top three online decks. It's been a truly remarkable run, but now it faces the threat of entropy. The life expectancy of a Tier 1 Modern deck is only two years.

The only site that goes back far enough to really see this is MTGTop8, but if you start in 2011 and track how each deck rises and falls, the pattern is two years at the top, followed by a rapid decline. Absent Krark-Clan Ironworks-type execution bans, every Tier 1 deck has followed the pattern of two years of high performance followed by condemnation. This doesn't mean they disappear completely. The basic Prowess strategy first showed up in 2016 as Izzet Kiln Fiend and has had repeated highs and lows over the years.

The usual culprit for this trend is new cards. Izzet Prowess dominated May 2021, crashed after Modern Horizons 2 came out, was dead for a while, and now it's back. However, I don't think that applies to Energy. There weren't any new cards that uniquely affected it released in the last few months. Instead, I think that players are just bored of playing Energy. They've had the deck for two years now, with very little reason to play anything else. I can't prove it, but I suspect that Energy's online decline is down to players using the Pro Tour result as an excuse to play literally anything else and without feeling suboptimal.

What It Means

I believe the online metagame will be a free-for-all for at least some of September. Freedom can be intoxicating, and the volume of weird decks I'm seeing shows that there was a lot of experimental energy that had been bottled up by Boros Energy. However, eventually the drive for optimization will take back over and MTGO will settle back down. Its small playerbase and constant tournaments drives and rewards optimization over experimentation. This might mean that Energy will reassert itself.

Paper is another matter. Paper players have fewer opportunities to play their decks and the cost of switching decks is much higher. Boros hasn't been the top deck there for several months now, but at time of writing it's still putting up the numbers to keep its place in Tier 1. There are those taking the excuse to switch off, but I suspect it won't be enough to meaningfully change anything. Boros should remain a serious deck in paper until another ban or a really meaningful new card.

I realize that some are trying to make Jeskai Energy work, but that's probably not going to stick. Quantum Riddler fills the now vacant grindy-card slot imperfectly because it's just not as versatile as Phlage. Drawing cards is nice and all, but it doesn't deal three to anything (four with Goblin Bombardment), isn't resilient to removal, and can't win the game in two swings. Even trying to be more like Blink won't work, Goryo and Esper have that niche on lockdown.

Financial Implications

If you haven't taken advantage of the Regional Championship demand, it's too late for the September ones. They're starting the weekend this article comes out, so only the foolish will be desperately looking for last-second cards. Instead, watch the results very closely and begin stockpiling the cards for whatever does well so you can meet the demand for the October RCs.

Reality Fracture could be a wildcard, but so far looks to be pretty tame compared to Future Sight, to the disappointment of some speculators. Keep a close eye on it, but sealed product hasn't been doing as well as expected recently.