amulet titan | Quiet Speculation

A Modern Split: July ’21 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Wed, 04 Aug 2021 16:00:16 +0000

New month, new metagame update. It is the way. And I'd like to kick this one off by tempering expectations. The near-perpetual spoiler season we now inhabit did spit out another set. However, Adventures in the Forgotten Realms is no Modern Horizons 2, and did not have that much impact on Modern. The resulting July metagame […]

The post A Modern Split: July ’21 Metagame Update first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Modern Top 5: Underplayed Cards

David Ernenwein — Tue, 20 Jul 2021 16:00:31 +0000

It's summer. There's not much happening on the Magic front. And I've got summer things to do. So I'm giving in and doing a list article. At least the algorithm will be satisfied. And I still have my professional pride preventing me from doing it in a nonanalytical way. The Online Metagame An explainer/disclaimer before I […]

The post Modern Top 5: Underplayed Cards first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

A Format Reborn: June ’21 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 06 Jul 2021 16:00:17 +0000

It's the first Tuesday of the month, so it's time for the metagame update. Yes, even in the middle of spoiler season. Because, serious question, when aren't we in spoiler season? This year's release schedule is ridiculous; I could spend all my time just discussing cards and never run out of gas. I've got to draw […]

The post A Format Reborn: June ’21 Metagame Update first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Friendly Fire: The New Banlist’s Splash Damage

Jordan Boisvert — Wed, 03 Mar 2021 17:00:13 +0000

The latest banlist announcement did a number on Modern's top decks, decimating the Uro piles which week and again would claim top of the heap as well as the new bullies on the block, cascade-powered decks abusing the latest Tibalt cards. In order to solve for these displays of power, though, Wizards took an unconventional […]

The post Friendly Fire: The New Banlist’s Splash Damage first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Testing Hypergenesis: Quantitative Data

David Ernenwein — Tue, 02 Mar 2021 17:00:53 +0000

Having finished the appetizer, it's time for the main course: the data from my Hypergenesis test. This is the hard, quantitative data, and I've done statistics on them to determine the validity of the test. For the stats people out there, I do a multiple significance test, but will report the z-test here. There's never […]

The post Testing Hypergenesis: Quantitative Data first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Testing Hypergenesis: Experimental Setup

David Ernenwein — Tue, 23 Feb 2021 17:00:29 +0000

It's been quite a while, but your eyes do not deceive: this is another full banlist test series! It's been almost two years since I did one of these. Not for lack of trying, mind you, but there are only so many viable test subjects in the first place, and I've done a few already. […]

The post Testing Hypergenesis: Experimental Setup first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Fortune Telling: MH2 Speculation, Part 3

David Ernenwein — Tue, 22 Dec 2020 17:00:27 +0000

Everything eventually ends. As the year wraps up, it's time for me to bring my Modern Horizons 2 speculation to a close. I need to clear space for the upcoming Kaldheim spoiler season. And hopefully, the return of paper Magic; I've spent considerable time and energy trying to figure out how I'm going to incorporate […]

The post Fortune Telling: MH2 Speculation, Part 3 first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Ramp Rising: November 2020 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 08 Dec 2020 17:00:01 +0000

Alright, no more delays. All the data is finally in, and so it's time to do November's Metagame Update. So far, the metagame has generally been dynamic. The top deck hasn't been consistent between months, though Rakdos Prowess and its descendant Scourge Shadow have been consistently Tier 1 since I started doing these again. Will […]

The post Ramp Rising: November 2020 Metagame Update first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Investigating Confounding Conundrum

David Ernenwein — Tue, 08 Sep 2020 16:00:49 +0000

Ah, spoiler season. The time when I don't have to stretch myself doing statistical work. Just looking at the new cards, doing some basic analysis, and speculating about whether there's a place in Modern for them. Simple and low-pressure, just what this year's called for. Then, something had to come in a ruin everything: a […]

The post Investigating Confounding Conundrum first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Guess Who’s Back: Titan and Phoenix New Looks

Jordan Boisvert — Mon, 23 Mar 2020 16:00:44 +0000

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite recent bannings, the targeted decks are rising up again, reinventing themselves in novel ways. Axing Once Upon a Time from the format heralded an imminent paradigm shift for Amulet Titan, an enduring archetype that had redesigned itself around the free cantrip so drastically as […]

The post Guess Who’s Back: Titan and Phoenix New Looks first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

One Time at Banned Camp: The March ’20 Ban

David Ernenwein — Tue, 10 Mar 2020 16:00:23 +0000

Well that was fast. It's only been two months since Oko, Thief of Crowns was banned. It's pretty rare for Wizards to issue Modern bans in consecutive announcements, except for during emergencies like Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis's reign of terror. So I wasn't actually expecting anything to happen in Modern. However, last Thursday, that changed; I […]

The post One Time at Banned Camp: The March ’20 Ban first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Adaptation and Acclimation: Metagame Adjustments

David Ernenwein — Tue, 25 Feb 2020 17:00:24 +0000

Another event, another set of data, another reexamination of the Modern metagame. As the time of actual Modern Opens and Grand Prix approaches, Modern players are increasingly seeking to find the new rules for the format and whatever edge they can. I'll be tracking those changes as the data comes in, looking for developments and […]

The post Adaptation and Acclimation: Metagame Adjustments first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Right Tools for the Job: Top-Tier Tech

David Ernenwein — Tue, 18 Feb 2020 17:00:24 +0000

The metagame is beginning to take form, and now is the time for players to start adapting. This could mean adjusting which decks they play, how they play them, or what cards they play. Now is naturally a time for experimentation, but no such transitional period is free from common mistakes. Whether it's misunderstanding how […]

The post Right Tools for the Job: Top-Tier Tech first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Titanic Whimper: The Meta Develops

David Ernenwein — Tue, 11 Feb 2020 17:00:13 +0000

Last week, we made a forecast about Modern in 2020. And with a starting point established, we can now begin tracking developments! I previously concluded that the SCG circuit was overplaying Amulet Titan, and that Modern players were forgetting to pack their graveyard hate. This week, I will be adding to the data with additional […]

The post Titanic Whimper: The Meta Develops first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

And So It Begins: Metagame Starting Point

David Ernenwein — Tue, 04 Feb 2020 17:00:22 +0000

Everything has to begin somewhere. The Modern metagame is no exception, and last week I used the MTGO metagame as a bellwether for the emerging format. The five decks I examined have done well online. However, as I noted, the data isn't necessarily accurate or indicative of what players will encounter at a Modern event. […]

The post And So It Begins: Metagame Starting Point first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Season’s Greetings: Early Metagame Indicators

David Ernenwein — Tue, 28 Jan 2020 17:00:42 +0000

That Modern is changing should be obvious: there's a lower-power set coming out and we just had a major banning. But how Modern is changing is an open question. The only major Modern events for the next month are SCG Classics and Team Opens, which aren't the most reliable sources for data. So we'll have […]

The post Season’s Greetings: Early Metagame Indicators first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Lessons Learned from SCG Indi and ELD Part 1/2

Sam Lowe — Tue, 15 Oct 2019 17:32:29 +0000

SCG Indi was an important week both for Sam and for Magic at large. Check in with Sam here to find out what he learned over the weekend and what lies ahead.

The post Lessons Learned from SCG Indi and ELD Part 1/2 first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Cool Stories, Bro: Testing Throne of Eldraine

David Ernenwein — Tue, 08 Oct 2019 16:00:45 +0000

Throne of Eldraine is officially out, and that means that data is slowly trickling in. Very slowly, to the point that I can't draw conclusions yet. It will take a few more weeks of events and brewing before things settle enough to get an accurate view of the new metagame. Now is the perfect time […]

The post Cool Stories, Bro: Testing Throne of Eldraine first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

Slow and Steady: Metagaming against Phoenix

David Ernenwein — Tue, 26 Mar 2019 16:00:39 +0000

Modern is vast and diverse enough to make metagaming a frequently terrible idea. However, sometimes it is warranted. With Izzet Phoenix, followed by Dredge, consistently dominating the big tournaments in a way that Modern hasn't seen in years, it makes sense for the first time in a long time to actively target the top decks. How to […]

The post Slow and Steady: Metagaming against Phoenix first appeared on Quiet Speculation.

What’s Next #1

Edward Eng — Thu, 31 Jan 2019 17:37:09 +0000

Spinning off from a section in article #23, Eddie starts this new What's Next series by looking into what could be in store for Modern after the KCI banning.

The post What’s Next #1 first appeared on Quiet Speculation.