humans | Quiet Speculation https://www.quietspeculation.com Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 14 Sep 2021 16:00:54 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.quietspeculation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/favicon.png humans | Quiet Speculation https://www.quietspeculation.com 32 32 An Underwhelming Harvest: Midnight Hunt Spoilers https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/09/underwhelming-harvest-midnight-hunt-spoilers/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/09/underwhelming-harvest-midnight-hunt-spoilers/#respond Tue, 14 Sep 2021 16:00:54 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=23480 The paper Prerelease and the digital release of Innistrad: Midnight Hunt is this weekend. Subsequently, the entire set has been spoiled. In turn, this means that I can evaluate the remaining cards with better context. And there's... mixed news. IMH has some gems for Modern, but it's mostly misses. Which isn't a bad thing after MH2. And […]

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Howling into Autumn: Midnight Hunt Spoilers https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/09/howling-into-autumn-midnight-hunt-spoilers/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/09/howling-into-autumn-midnight-hunt-spoilers/#respond Wed, 08 Sep 2021 16:00:23 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=23456

And here we are again. Another spoiler season. One that will barely be over before the next one begins, because for some reason, Wizards is doing a dual set this fall. Innistrad is such a popular setting that I imagine they'll do well, but it feels like Wizards is pushing our wallets to the breaking […]

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Finding Humanity in Modern Horizons 2 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/06/finding-humanity-in-modern-horizons-2/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/06/finding-humanity-in-modern-horizons-2/#respond Wed, 23 Jun 2021 16:00:44 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=23246 If one alludes to an article, one needs to follow-through. In literature, the principle is known as Chekov's Gun. Last week, I created expectations for an article about my experiences testing Humans, so this week I have to actually write that article. Which is fortunate; I've tested enough that I'm able to discuss the various […]

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Counterspell and Sanctum Prelate in Horizons 2 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/05/counterspell-sanctum-prelate-horizons-2/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2021/05/counterspell-sanctum-prelate-horizons-2/#respond Tue, 11 May 2021 16:00:09 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=22952

It would seem that Wizards is growing impatient. The stated beginning of Modern Horizons 2 previews was next week. However, as part of their announcement of the "Summer of Legend" (which trips my marketing gag reflex), Wizards gave us some early spoilers. Clearly intended to whet player appetites for what is to come, the spoilers were […]

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Flat Curve: September ’20 Metagame Update https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/10/flat-curve-september-20-metagame-update/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/10/flat-curve-september-20-metagame-update/#respond Tue, 06 Oct 2020 16:00:38 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=22229 October is upon us, which means that it's time to do another metagame update. Modern continues to chug along in this paperless world. And better for me, Wizards seems to have finally gotten its act together and is regularly reporting results. Ever since I started caring about MTGO, I've had to deal with really inconsistent […]

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Busted Doesn’t Equal Good: Testing ‘Belcher https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/09/busted-doesnt-equal-good-testing-belcher/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/09/busted-doesnt-equal-good-testing-belcher/#respond Tue, 22 Sep 2020 16:00:42 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=22170 Magic can get weird at times. There are utterly incomprehensible cards like Ice Cauldron. Sometimes it's rules weirdness, like Blood Sun not stopping Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth's ability. Other times it's a deck that makes no sense, like Inverter of Truth combo. And sometimes it's because of logical paradoxes and other contradictory truths. Case in […]

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Preparing for a Paper Future with Double Masters https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/09/preparing-for-a-paper-future-with-double-masters/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/09/preparing-for-a-paper-future-with-double-masters/#comments Wed, 16 Sep 2020 11:00:00 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=96006

Paper Magic is going to come back someday and people are going to start wanting paper copies of cards featured in competitive decks again. Joe takes a look at his top choices from Double Masters for players looking to pick up cheap, competitive reprints before paper tournaments begin again in earnest.

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Underestimation Escalation: Umezawa’s Jitte https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/07/underestimation-escalation-umezawas-jitte/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/07/underestimation-escalation-umezawas-jitte/#respond Tue, 28 Jul 2020 16:00:31 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=21970 There are many old sayings about plans going awry. Even when it seems like everything lines up perfectly, there's always a chance for something to go wrong. Throw in a global health crisis, and everything goes out the window. The shutdown seemed like the perfect time to run another banlist test. It's been over a year […]

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Blood Moon’s Zenith: The New Police https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/07/blood-moons-zenith-the-new-police/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/07/blood-moons-zenith-the-new-police/#respond Tue, 07 Jul 2020 16:00:38 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=21904 Tracking events and collecting and then presenting data is all well and good. It's how observations are turned into good science and how we analyze Magic's metagame ecosystem. However, saying that Bant Snow and Eldrazi Tron are tied for most played deck is only half the story. Why this is happening is a far harder, […]

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Trending Away: Modern’s Metagame Muddle https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/06/trending-away-moderns-metagame-muddle/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/06/trending-away-moderns-metagame-muddle/#respond Tue, 30 Jun 2020 16:00:38 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=21876 It's the end of June. Normally that wouldn't feel weird to say, but this is a rather unusual year. Where has it gone, and simultaneously why does it feel like it never goes at all? Without paper events as a guide and work disrupted, time is losing meaning to me. Fortunately, I keep being reminded of […]

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Situation Contained: Core 2021 Early Spoilers https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/06/situation-contained-core-2021-early-spoilers/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/06/situation-contained-core-2021-early-spoilers/#comments Tue, 09 Jun 2020 16:00:21 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=21796 In these uncertain times, it is only natural to seek stability and comfort in the familiar and predictable. Which is a convoluted way of saying that the world may be burning, but spoiler season has returned on schedule. It's not much relative to everything else, but even small comforts are important. In the past, Core […]

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Here be Monsters: Ikoria Spoilers Week 1 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/04/here-be-monsters-ikoria-spoilers-week-1/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/04/here-be-monsters-ikoria-spoilers-week-1/#respond Tue, 07 Apr 2020 16:00:30 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=21493 Alright Magic world, it's time to screech to even more of a halt: it's spoiler time again. That means you, Timmy and Tammy! Particularly you, since this set is tailor made to your preferences, they being giant monsters and the making thereof. The pickings are a bit thinner for Spike this time around, but that's fine […]

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Online Only: MTGO Metagame https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/03/online-only-mtgo-metagame/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2020/03/online-only-mtgo-metagame/#respond Wed, 25 Mar 2020 16:00:05 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=21449 *Sigh* Oh, Magic Online. It is only now, with paper Magic shut down, that I am forced to regularly use you. And remember that I love/hate you. The ability to pick up and play my preferred format anytime, and against anyone in the world, is a true joy. Having to navigate your stubbornly obtuse command schemes […]

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Christmas Comes Early: A Tournament Report https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/12/christmas-comes-early-tournament-report/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/12/christmas-comes-early-tournament-report/#respond Wed, 18 Dec 2019 17:00:21 +0000 https://quietspeculation.com/?p=21118 The competitive season has come to an end, but that doesn't mean that Magic just stops in December. Local tournaments and MTGO never end. And some competitive scenes don't have official Wizards support or the backing of a massive store. Some are built by and for the local players. The Colorado Magic scene, deprived of Star City […]

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Cool Stories, Bro: Testing Throne of Eldraine https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/10/cool-stories-bro-testing-throne-eldraine/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/10/cool-stories-bro-testing-throne-eldraine/#respond Tue, 08 Oct 2019 16:00:45 +0000 http://quietspeculation.com/?p=20821 Throne of Eldraine is officially out, and that means that data is slowly trickling in. Very slowly, to the point that I can't draw conclusions yet. It will take a few more weeks of events and brewing before things settle enough to get an accurate view of the new metagame. Now is the perfect time […]

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Stitched Together: Early Successes from Horizons https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/06/stitched-together-early-successes-from-horizons/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/06/stitched-together-early-successes-from-horizons/#comments Fri, 14 Jun 2019 16:00:15 +0000 http://quietspeculation.com/?p=20245 Modern Horizons becomes legal today in the paper world, but it's been tearing up Magic Online for a good week. Wizards has published two events since then: a Modern Challenge and a league. Today, we'll scour each for the hottest tech stirring up the format. Scourge of the Format? In the very first Horizons-featuring event […]

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Punishing Fire: Qualitative Results and Conclusion https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/punishing-fire-qualitative-results-conclusion/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/punishing-fire-qualitative-results-conclusion/#comments Tue, 21 May 2019 16:00:01 +0000 http://quietspeculation.com/?p=20088 Last week, I unveiled the first part of my Punishing Fire test. With the data compiled and revealed, it's time for the less-concrete part. The data is the data and speaks for itself. However, that's not the whole story. Magic isn't just a numbers game; there are a lot of intangibles. For instance, it's also supposed […]

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Modern Horizons and the Road Ahead https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/modern-horizons-and-the-road-ahead/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/modern-horizons-and-the-road-ahead/#comments Fri, 17 May 2019 14:15:13 +0000 https://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=92750

Chris makes his final picks before Modern Horizons spoiler season starts this weekend.

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Testing Punishing Fire: Quantitative Data https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/testing-punishing-fire-quantitative-data/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/testing-punishing-fire-quantitative-data/#comments Tue, 14 May 2019 16:00:01 +0000 http://quietspeculation.com/?p=20049 And now it's time for everyone's favorite part of the banlist test: the experimental data. With 500 matches of Jund with and without Punishing Fire under my belt, I have developed a very strong opinion on unbanning the card. Today, I will reveal the hard numbers and their statistical significance. As always, these data are […]

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Testing Punishing Fire: Experimental Setup https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/testing-punishing-fire-experimental-setup/ https://www.quietspeculation.com/2019/05/testing-punishing-fire-experimental-setup/#comments Tue, 07 May 2019 16:00:51 +0000 http://quietspeculation.com/?p=20023 The time has come to start rolling out the results of my latest foray into the Modern banlist. In the past, the return of this series was hailed with a public vote for which card I'd work on, followed by months of silence while I actually did the work. This time, extenuating circumstances dictated the […]

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