metagame analysis | Quiet Speculation

Meet the New Boss: March ’21 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 06 Apr 2021 16:00:33 +0000

First Tuesday of a new month? Must be time for the metagame update. Yes, I realize that there wasn't one last time, but those were special circumstances. A major ban invalidated more than half of February's data. There's really nothing statistically valid from ten days of results. Of course, March wasn't much better. Thanks to […]

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The Latest Contender? Analyzing Heliod Company

David Ernenwein — Tue, 23 Mar 2021 16:00:26 +0000

And now, back to our regularly scheduled metagame analysis. Let me just take a look at what's been winning... oh. MTGO's reporting system is bugged; there's been no new data since March 10. Huh. Ok, well, let me just see what's happening in the community... wait, really? Heliod Company is considered the best deck now? […]

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Ramp Rising: November 2020 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 08 Dec 2020 17:00:01 +0000

Alright, no more delays. All the data is finally in, and so it's time to do November's Metagame Update. So far, the metagame has generally been dynamic. The top deck hasn't been consistent between months, though Rakdos Prowess and its descendant Scourge Shadow have been consistently Tier 1 since I started doing these again. Will […]

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Multicolor Monolith: October 2020 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 17:00:12 +0000

Happy Election Day, America! May your vote be counted and the voting process as stress-free as mine. Living in a state that's been all mail-in ballots for years has considerable advantages in a pandemic year. And if not, take heart. At minimum, you won't be bombarded by annoying, omnipresent, and pleading political advertising for at […]

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Flat Curve: September ’20 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 06 Oct 2020 16:00:38 +0000

October is upon us, which means that it's time to do another metagame update. Modern continues to chug along in this paperless world. And better for me, Wizards seems to have finally gotten its act together and is regularly reporting results. Ever since I started caring about MTGO, I've had to deal with really inconsistent […]

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Trending Away: Modern’s Metagame Muddle

David Ernenwein — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 16:00:38 +0000

It's the end of June. Normally that wouldn't feel weird to say, but this is a rather unusual year. Where has it gone, and simultaneously why does it feel like it never goes at all? Without paper events as a guide and work disrupted, time is losing meaning to me. Fortunately, I keep being reminded of […]

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Companion of the Week: Metagame Breakdown

David Ernenwein — Tue, 19 May 2020 16:00:47 +0000

When working with data, scale is everything. Just as an area looks very different when using Google Streetview versus Google Maps, the context, meaning, trends, and ultimately the conclusions reached from the data will depend heavily on the scale it's examined on. This is the reason that economics is split between micro and macro level […]

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The Companion Effect: Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 12 May 2020 16:00:50 +0000

In the absence of data, speculation and rumor thrive. It's time to correct that problem with a deep data dive. I have been collecting metagame data for the past month, and today I'm going to share my findings. The rhetoric about companions has been flying thick since they were revealed, but their actual impact was […]

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Online Only: MTGO Metagame

David Ernenwein — Wed, 25 Mar 2020 16:00:05 +0000

*Sigh* Oh, Magic Online. It is only now, with paper Magic shut down, that I am forced to regularly use you. And remember that I love/hate you. The ability to pick up and play my preferred format anytime, and against anyone in the world, is a true joy. Having to navigate your stubbornly obtuse command schemes […]

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Grave Matters: GP Birmingham Analysis

David Ernenwein — Tue, 20 Aug 2019 16:00:01 +0000

Another event-filled weekend, another data dump, another chance for Modern to adapt and contain the arisen menace. It may not be likely, but as someone locked into making the trip to GP Las Vegas, I feel the need to hope. Barring a sudden abandonment of Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in Birmingham, I was also hoping against […]

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Grave Concerns: GP Minneapolis Analysis

David Ernenwein — Tue, 13 Aug 2019 16:00:25 +0000

With another GP in the books, it's time once again to dig into the data. When I last did so right after the big MC weekend, the picture was muddied by contradictory results. Half indicated that Hogaak was a dominant force in the metagame. The other half indicated that it was just another deck. Its […]

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Metagame Tide’s Changing: GP Calgary

David Ernenwein — Tue, 02 Apr 2019 16:00:35 +0000

Nothing lasts forever; the mighty will eventually fall; time erases all wounds; change is the only constant. All such platitudes mean for Modern is that one deck can only remain on top of the format for so long. Eventually, the format either adapts to the deck, there's a structural change to the metagame, or the banhammer […]

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Firebird’s Shadow: GP Weekend Analysis

David Ernenwein — Tue, 19 Mar 2019 16:00:43 +0000

One weekend. Three events. So much data. With an SCG Open and two GPs this weekend, I can better evaluate whether the extreme trends seen in the Regionals data actually have weight, or were the outliers I speculated. Is Phoenix really as good as it looks? The Day 2 Picture For unknown reasons, Channelfireball decided […]

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The New is the Old: Metagame Analysis

David Ernenwein — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 17:00:25 +0000

The Modern format is so diverse, both quantitatively and competitively, that it can prove tough to quantify; certain players subsequently claim there is no metagame, while others focus only on tournament-winning decks. Each approach lacks some degree of nuance. Today, I'm trying to bring some of it back. I was thrilled when I heard that […]

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Hindsight 20/18: Metagame Review

David Ernenwein — Tue, 11 Dec 2018 17:00:34 +0000

The Modern metagame cycles, though the process is slow and hard to see. This complicates determining which trends are just flashes in the pan and which must be accounted for and adapted to. Metagame-specific decks, like Death and Taxes at GP Las Vegas 2017, can look like real decks, at times frustrating players trying to […]

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Return to the PPTQ Grind: Week 0

David Ernenwein — Tue, 17 Jul 2018 16:00:45 +0000

The Modern PPTQ season starts this weekend for me. Just like last year, I will be documenting my grind for the RPTQ invite, with all the lessons learned and deck tweaks that entails. Hopefully this edition doesn't go the whole season, but that's Magic. In this kick-off article, I will be examining the metagame with an […]

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GP Las Vegas and the Ironworks Conundrum

David Ernenwein — Tue, 19 Jun 2018 16:00:23 +0000

With Grand Prix Las Vegas in the books, it's time to reexamine the metagame. 2,779 players in a single event provides a valuable data crucible. In theory, such an event would produce results very similar to the "real" Modern metagame. In theory. Reality is chaotic, and has given us something far more interesting to dissect: […]

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Seeing the Spectrum: Is Modern More Unfair?

David Ernenwein — Tue, 03 Apr 2018 16:00:40 +0000

The phrase "I know it when I see it" is rather cliché and typically unhelpful. It is also frequently true: there are phenomena that are easy to observe and record, but actually defining them is a struggle. For instance, physicists cannot agree on a Grand Unified Theory despite broad agreement on its components; philosophical debates […]

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Double Strike: GP Phoenix Analysis

David Ernenwein — Tue, 20 Mar 2018 16:00:39 +0000

Another weekend, another major event to review: this time, GP Phoenix. The paper metagame continues to be hard to pin down. There are significant changes from SCG Dallas which muddy the waters and makes any projection difficult. There appear to be some trends forming but anything can be a trend when you only have two […]

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Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan vs. The Metagame

David Ernenwein — Tue, 06 Feb 2018 17:00:56 +0000

Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan, the first Modern PT in two years, is in the books! And I'm feeling kind of flat about the whole thing. This is probably because I didn't watch the live version. It's not the coverage team's fault. However, I have no interest in watching live drafts, and trying to watch […]

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