mono-green tron | Quiet Speculation

Meet the New Boss: March ’21 Metagame Update

David Ernenwein — Tue, 06 Apr 2021 16:00:33 +0000

First Tuesday of a new month? Must be time for the metagame update. Yes, I realize that there wasn't one last time, but those were special circumstances. A major ban invalidated more than half of February's data. There's really nothing statistically valid from ten days of results. Of course, March wasn't much better. Thanks to […]

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Remember Me: Forgotten Lessons

David Ernenwein — Wed, 17 Mar 2021 16:00:31 +0000

The time after a set release or a major ban is always exciting. The format is in flux, the metagame undefined, and everything seems playable. This is even more true right now, thanks to the ban taking away a metagame pillar. This has in turn renewed interest in Modern, bringing an influx of players and […]

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Grave Matters: GP Birmingham Analysis

David Ernenwein — Tue, 20 Aug 2019 16:00:01 +0000

Another event-filled weekend, another data dump, another chance for Modern to adapt and contain the arisen menace. It may not be likely, but as someone locked into making the trip to GP Las Vegas, I feel the need to hope. Barring a sudden abandonment of Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in Birmingham, I was also hoping against […]

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That Which is Not Dead: MC Weekend

David Ernenwein — Tue, 30 Jul 2019 16:00:56 +0000

For the first time in quite a while, I have a massive data dump to analyze! The past weekend contained a Modern GP, an SCG Open, and the Mythic Championship. With all the shocks finally wearing off, we can start to get a handle on the new metagame. But not without first noting that this […]

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Punishing Fire: Qualitative Results and Conclusion

David Ernenwein — Tue, 21 May 2019 16:00:01 +0000

Last week, I unveiled the first part of my Punishing Fire test. With the data compiled and revealed, it's time for the less-concrete part. The data is the data and speaks for itself. However, that's not the whole story. Magic isn't just a numbers game; there are a lot of intangibles. For instance, it's also supposed […]

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Testing Punishing Fire: Quantitative Data

David Ernenwein — Tue, 14 May 2019 16:00:01 +0000

And now it's time for everyone's favorite part of the banlist test: the experimental data. With 500 matches of Jund with and without Punishing Fire under my belt, I have developed a very strong opinion on unbanning the card. Today, I will reveal the hard numbers and their statistical significance. As always, these data are […]

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Testing Punishing Fire: Experimental Setup

David Ernenwein — Tue, 07 May 2019 16:00:51 +0000

The time has come to start rolling out the results of my latest foray into the Modern banlist. In the past, the return of this series was hailed with a public vote for which card I'd work on, followed by months of silence while I actually did the work. This time, extenuating circumstances dictated the […]

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Metagame Snapshot: SCG Regionals Analysis

David Ernenwein — Thu, 14 Mar 2019 16:00:51 +0000

With data reduced to a relative trickle and the overall metagame picture clouded, there hasn't been much information to work with. However, the data from SCG Regionals is always a strong indicator of the US metagame, so today I'll be looking at the data. While there is very significant result to dig into, the overall […]

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The Death of KCI: Banlist Reaction

David Ernenwein — Wed, 23 Jan 2019 17:00:58 +0000

Alright Monday, what you got this time? Wow. They actually banned something for once. And something very significant at that. Even better, there's an in-depth explanation attached. This certainly demands a deeper dive. I'll start with the obvious part: nothing got unbanned. I'm sorry for those who have their hearts set on playing with Stoneforge […]

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Green Sun’s Zenith Testing: Quantitative Results

David Ernenwein — Tue, 13 Nov 2018 17:00:34 +0000

Finally, it's time for everyone's favorite part of the banlist test: the experimental data. After playing 500 matches with GB Elves over several months, I can finally put some data to the speculation about the impact of unbanning Green Sun's Zenith. I will be revealing the hard numbers and their statistical significance. As always, these […]

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Green Sun’s Zenith Testing: Experimental Setup

David Ernenwein — Tue, 06 Nov 2018 17:00:18 +0000

It's finally time for another banlist testing report. Back in May, readers chose Green Sun's Zenith as the next banned card to test, which I'll just call GSZ from here on out. I've spent the intervening months grinding games and recording results to test its effect on Modern. This week, I'll explain my test procedure, […]

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Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em #8

Edward Eng — Thu, 30 Aug 2018 20:44:51 +0000

This week Eddie circles back around to rotation to highlight Standard and Modern. He also provides a new way to keep tabs on cards he mentions in his articles with a public spreadsheet.

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GP Las Vegas and the Ironworks Conundrum

David Ernenwein — Tue, 19 Jun 2018 16:00:23 +0000

With Grand Prix Las Vegas in the books, it's time to reexamine the metagame. 2,779 players in a single event provides a valuable data crucible. In theory, such an event would produce results very similar to the "real" Modern metagame. In theory. Reality is chaotic, and has given us something far more interesting to dissect: […]

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