testing | Quiet Speculation

Testing Hypergenesis: Quantitative Data

David Ernenwein — Tue, 02 Mar 2021 17:00:53 +0000

Having finished the appetizer, it's time for the main course: the data from my Hypergenesis test. This is the hard, quantitative data, and I've done statistics on them to determine the validity of the test. For the stats people out there, I do a multiple significance test, but will report the z-test here. There's never […]

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Testing Hypergenesis: Experimental Setup

David Ernenwein — Tue, 23 Feb 2021 17:00:29 +0000

It's been quite a while, but your eyes do not deceive: this is another full banlist test series! It's been almost two years since I did one of these. Not for lack of trying, mind you, but there are only so many viable test subjects in the first place, and I've done a few already. […]

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Busted Doesn’t Equal Good: Testing ‘Belcher

David Ernenwein — Tue, 22 Sep 2020 16:00:42 +0000

Magic can get weird at times. There are utterly incomprehensible cards like Ice Cauldron. Sometimes it's rules weirdness, like Blood Sun not stopping Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth's ability. Other times it's a deck that makes no sense, like Inverter of Truth combo. And sometimes it's because of logical paradoxes and other contradictory truths. Case in […]

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Investigating Confounding Conundrum

David Ernenwein — Tue, 08 Sep 2020 16:00:49 +0000

Ah, spoiler season. The time when I don't have to stretch myself doing statistical work. Just looking at the new cards, doing some basic analysis, and speculating about whether there's a place in Modern for them. Simple and low-pressure, just what this year's called for. Then, something had to come in a ruin everything: a […]

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Underestimation Escalation: Umezawa’s Jitte

David Ernenwein — Tue, 28 Jul 2020 16:00:31 +0000

There are many old sayings about plans going awry. Even when it seems like everything lines up perfectly, there's always a chance for something to go wrong. Throw in a global health crisis, and everything goes out the window. The shutdown seemed like the perfect time to run another banlist test. It's been over a year […]

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Blood Moon’s Zenith: The New Police

David Ernenwein — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 16:00:38 +0000

Tracking events and collecting and then presenting data is all well and good. It's how observations are turned into good science and how we analyze Magic's metagame ecosystem. However, saying that Bant Snow and Eldrazi Tron are tied for most played deck is only half the story. Why this is happening is a far harder, […]

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Cool Stories, Bro: Testing Throne of Eldraine

David Ernenwein — Tue, 08 Oct 2019 16:00:45 +0000

Throne of Eldraine is officially out, and that means that data is slowly trickling in. Very slowly, to the point that I can't draw conclusions yet. It will take a few more weeks of events and brewing before things settle enough to get an accurate view of the new metagame. Now is the perfect time […]

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Dem Boyz Is Here: Assembling Modern Goblins

David Ernenwein — Tue, 01 Oct 2019 16:00:23 +0000

There's an odd lull in Magic right before the set release. There's no point discussing spoilers anymore; the set's known and being tested. However, those testing results are questionable. There hasn't been enough time to process the new cards and produce results, nor has the metagame adjusted to reflect these new cards. This means content tends […]

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Grave Matters: GP Birmingham Analysis

David Ernenwein — Tue, 20 Aug 2019 16:00:01 +0000

Another event-filled weekend, another data dump, another chance for Modern to adapt and contain the arisen menace. It may not be likely, but as someone locked into making the trip to GP Las Vegas, I feel the need to hope. Barring a sudden abandonment of Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis in Birmingham, I was also hoping against […]

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Ground Level View: Testing for Las Vegas

David Ernenwein — Tue, 05 Jun 2018 16:00:37 +0000

There is an old proverb about the best-laid plans. I intended to examine the results from SCG Regionals this week, but at writing time, they had not been officially posted. The few forum and reddit posts provide patchwork at best data, so that article will have to wait. Instead, I will be discussing how I […]

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Systematic and Practical Testing Guidelines

Roland F. Rivera Santiago — Wed, 14 Feb 2018 17:00:30 +0000

Thanks to Wizards' bombshell unban announcement, Modern is on the cusp of a great age of experimentation. Established and rogue archetypes alike will be examining their 75s in efforts to either combat or incorporate the format's latest newcomers, and I fully expect some new archetypes to appear in the wake of these powerful additions to […]

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Working to Improve: Advice for Effective Playtesting

Ryan Overturf — Wed, 14 Dec 2016 17:00:47 +0000

When you first get into Magic, you'll undoubtedly have a lot of questions to ask. As you traverse your way through your early Limited and Constructed endeavors, you'll only find the number of questions increasing for a time. Magic is a very difficult game, after all. Eventually though, if you want to see competitive success, […]

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Banlist Test: Stoneforge Abzan vs. Affinity (Pt. 2)

Sheridan Lardner — Wed, 23 Dec 2015 17:00:26 +0000

I thought about marking up my work calendar with a countdown to January 18, but that felt too nerdy even for me. It's just so hard not to get excited about the upcoming January 18 banlist update and its probable impact on Modern. Since last week, ban and unban speculation has been relatively quiet throughout […]

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Testing for the Little Man: A Guide to Getting Better

Trevor Holmes — Thu, 16 Jul 2015 16:00:46 +0000

Hey guys! This week, I figured we’d take a step back from individual deck discussion/format analysis and discuss a topic that applies to anyone looking to improve their game: testing! With my recent move and the approach of Pro Tour: Magic Origins in Vancouver, I’ve been focused primarily on two things: Standard, and where my […]

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