Welcome back, readers!

Some of you may have heard of Mr. Travis Woo (a writer for Channel Fireball who happens to love brewing). He's had some solid success with his own brews and was a major proponent of the Living End deck in Modern.

The question we are asking ourselves today is what financial effect his decks and articles have on the MTG world. I realize that there are a lot of good MTG writers out there whose articles can affect the MTG finance world. However, few of them look at the game from an entirely different perspective--Woo's odd (some would say downright bizarre) perspective often creates a lot of excitement from his reader base.

I, personally, have played several of his deck ideas at FNMs simply because they were so different (for those interested, his Wolf-Run Black and Epic Experiment decks).

The reason we're looking for this potential “effect” is because he publishes weekly and if there is in fact a correlation between his article and a card's increase in price we could use that knowledge to get ahead of the game. One of the best ways to make money in a market economy is to find something with “cyclical” prices and simply buy when it's low and sell when it's high.

So now that we have our goal we need to figure out our game plan. In this case, we need to isolate a card (or cards) that he discusses in his weekly article that aren't being played elsewhere. The reason for this is simple; we don't want his card choices getting “splash” love from them just being good overall.

Myojin of Seeing Winds

Our first example is Myojin of Seeing Winds. This card was first discussed on August 11^th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-modern-blue-devotion/).

As we can see, this one has had a very minor price bump, but we aren't going to spend 66 cents to make 69 cents, we need some solid growth (50% or more at least) to justify the effort required to buy a lot of a card and then unload it (as unloading it may prove difficult and we might be forced to buylist copies)

Jalira, Master Polymorphist

Our second example is Jalira, Master Polymorphist. This card was first discussed on July 7^th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-polymorphing-standard-and-modern/).

This time we see no gains and instead see a decline followed by a flatline. Part of this is likely due to the fact that M15 had just come out and we've seen time and time again that almost all “new” cards in the set start out more valuable then they end up a month later (due to the fact that the first few weeks of a sets release supply is still very limited and demand is at it's peak).

Allosaurus Rider

Example #3 is Allosaurus Rider. It was first discussed on April 14^th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-allosaurus-pod/).

This is just not looking good so far. Here's a third example in which any gains are minimal if anything.

March of the Machines

Our fourth example is March of the Machines. This card showed up on March 24^th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-modern-march-madness/).

Yet again we see no real movement on the card after the article aired. This card does have several printings (as it appeared in both 10^th Edition and Archenemy) so it's also plausible there was plenty in the supply to absorb any uptick in demand.

Seismic Assualt & Countryside Crusher

Our next two examples appeared side by side on March 17^th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-lands-and-spells/). Both Countryside Crusher and Seismic Assault were four-of's and previously were the backbone of decks that have fallen out of favor.

And yet again we don't see any sort of price jump after this article released.

Genesis Wave & Primal Command

Our next example's debuted on January 27^th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-mono-green-aura-ramp/). This is one I remember coming out because there most certainly was an effect on these cards.

Here's our first example of an obvious “Twoo” Effect. There are several important things to take note of with these jumps. The Genesis Wave jump occurred two weeks before the article was posted, though in his article Travis discusses playtesting this deck a lot and it's likely that it leaked out early.

What's interesting is that the Primal Command jump didn't occur until the day of the article's posting. This implies that while people remembered getting overwhelmed by a Genesis Wave, they forgot the Primal Commands (or were unaware the deck ran them as a four-of). It is also important to note that GP Richmond was right around the corner and everyone was anticipating a second boon for Modern cards, so nobody wanted to miss out.

In his article Travis admits this deck is really powerful and that he was wary of writing it up before the GP. This is the kind of indicator that a deck isn't just a “flash in the pan”. Sure, most of his decks look like a lot of fun and the surprise factor can win you some games, but in the end you need to be doing something incredibly powerful in a format like Modern to truly have a shot at taking down a major event.

Summoner's Egg

Our ninth example comes from this article, (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-eggsploring-modern/), posted on January 13^th, 2014. Summoner's Egg was a new and creative way to cheat in an Emrakul in a format that has a really hard time getting rid of him.

Here's another example of the “Twoo Effect”. This again confirms my previous point, in that when Travis really think he's broken a format it's because he's found a way to do something very powerful (and somewhat consistent). While turning people's lands into artifacts via Liquimetal Coating and having them die to March of the Machines is cute, being able to cheat fatties into play very quickly is just game winning.

Again, it's important to note that this jump occurred when everyone was high on Modern cards and nobody wanted to miss the next big thing. As you can see, while this card quadrupled in price in a day or two, demand wasn't strong enough and it eventually dropped back down to the $2 range.

The danger of this kind of spike is, unless you're selling into the hype or you undercut all competitors, you run the risk of buying a bunch of cards at $1 (or less) and being stuck with them as the easiest out (buylists) are often slow to catch up.

Conclusion

In conclusion we can agree that there is such a thing as the Twoo Effect and it can have a financial impact. However, we noticed that this effect is more rare than many might think, and is typically relegated to when the deck itself is doing something powerful or broken, as opposed to a more fun, inconsistent deck.

So when Travis posts an article on a new deck idea, it's always worth reading, but don't just jump on that hype train hoping to double/triple/quadruple your money because he's picked some older or obscure bulk rare to center a deck on. Instead make sure the deck is doing something ridiculously powerful (not just ridiculous) before investing your money into it.