There is nothing like core set speculations. Since my initial observations with M12 and M13 mythics and my experiment with M14 mythics during my Nine Months of Portfolio Management I consider core sets to be the most predictable and profitable place to invest on MTGO. To some extent these are even better than cyclical Modern specs.

Back in August I proposed a potential winning strategy for M15 rares. Combined with the speculative strategy previously tested for core set mythics, I was expecting speculation on M15 rares and mythics to be a great ride. With all my M15 specs coming to an end now, it really was an incredible ride. It makes me sad to think that Magic Origins will be the last core set printed. Never have any other regular sets had so many profitable positions to speculate with.

Today, I'll review the results I got with M15 and discuss what could be done differently with Magic Origins coming next.

Implementing the Strategies

It is still striking to me how easy is was to generate profits with core sets, both rares and mythics. Based on the data available with M12 and M13 and based on my experiences with M14 and M15 it really seems like you can't go wrong with your core set speculations.

Earlier on Twitter Jason Dub ya was tweeting that "there's no such thing as a sure bet in finance." With core sets speculations in mind, I was telling him that if one sure bet may not exist (although I'm not sure it doesn't) a basket of positions certainly constitute a sure bet in the world of MTGO finance.

"Sure bet" may be a rather risky term to use with any type of speculative investments, however betting on several core sets mythics and rares have proven, and are proving once again, that they are the collective sure bets of MTGO finance.

M15 Mythics

With M14, I showed that it was possible to blindly invest an equal amount of Tix in all of the fifteen mythics of the set and be profitable after six to nine months. Following the result of this successful experiment I had decided to use the same approach with M15. This time around, there was a major difference--Pro Tour M15 would influence prices during MTGO M15 release events.

For M15 mythics, I had also decided to buy all of them, albeit with some restrictions and modifications. I would not buy the mythic(s) that spiked because of the Pro Tour and I would wait longer than two weeks into M15 release to buy bulk mythics in order to get true bulk prices. Also, I would not buy more than 100 copies of any mythic, with most likely a limitation around 50 copies. Here is what my M15 mythic basket looked like back in August.

I didn't buy Nissa, Worldwaker. The M15 green planeswalker made a strong finish at Pro Tour M15 and she was priced over 20 Tix soon after her release. I wasn't seeing any real upside in the mid- to long term here. Although she peaked over 32 Tix in September, before Khans of Tarkir was released, she dropped soon after to a 16 Tix floor.

Soul of Ravnica was also not included in my basket. I thought it was the least playable of the six M15 souls and it didn't make it under 0.6 Tix during the first month. For these reasons I didn't include this one in my basket.

M15 Rares

I didn't really spec on M14 rares, with the exception of two obvious targets, Mutavault and Chandra's Phoenix. However, when looking back at the numbers and the charts, the trend of M14 rares was rather spectacular. All but one of the rares that had not fallen under 0.2 Tix by mid-september revealed themselves to be great speculative targets later in the season. Following this pattern I invested in several M15 rares. Here is my M15 rares basket at the end of September 2014.

One big absence on that list--Hornet Queen. I didn't pay enough attention, only to realize it was seriously picking up around the release of Khans of Tarkir. This list could also have included other rares such as Hornet Nest, Aetherspouts and Yisan, the Wanderer Bard. I was also a little bit reluctant to buy real bulk rares as they were likely to be irrelevant for the size of my bankroll.

Results With Mythics

My basket of M15 mythics really didn't disappoint. Individually, five of the thirteen mythics (38%) I picked up finished in the negative, which is not a terrible winners/losers ratio. However, the best investment I ever made on MTGO was among this batch of mythics--Perilous Vault. Here are my selling prices, percentages and gains/losses.

The Losers

Garruk was bought kind of high and I sold it very quickly after he performed poorly at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. He reached a 4 Tix floor during the fall and had a second life recently with a rebound around 8 Tix. Sure, I could have kept it, but his Tix were put to work with Modern positions and a rebound is never certain.

Talking about missed rebounds, or rebounds that may never happen, I sold only quite recently Ajani Steadfast and Jace, the Living Guildpact. Since I intend to slow down on my MTGO speculation activities I'm not going to wait to see if these two planeswalkers will rebound or not with Dragons of Tarkir or Magic Origins.

Completing the losing team are Soul of New Phyrexia and Sliver Hivelord. For both of them I should have enjoyed the buyout spike that occurred in November.

Altogether these inevitable losses are a small price to pay when considering the whole basket. These losses are totally made up by the gains from the winners, which is why the basket strategy works and why core sets mythics are one of the best places to invest on MTGO.

The Winners

Although the potential was there--a low buying price for a new mythic with a powerful effect--Perilous Vault caught many by surprise and made several MTGO speculators a nice chunk of money. I sold it close to the height of the original peak in October. +514% profit is my absolute record for a non-bulk spec. One more reason to opt for the basket strategy--you are unlikely to miss the jackpot.

While the card kept a slow upward trend to finally reach 18 Tix in January, selling early was a good option as the cashed in Tix were used for winter Modern specs.

Chandra, Pyromaster also kept her promises and steadily gained value until December when the upward trend got steeper--I decided to sell at that moment which in retrospect seemed to be the best timing. Despite a fourth printing and little play, Liliana Vess was able to generate a decent +27% profit. Reprinted planeswalkers proved once again to be a sure bet in core sets.

The four colored souls were a nice surprise as well. I thought they had the potential to be played and therefore to be profitable, but until they actually are played you don't make any money. Soul of Innistrad and Soul of Theros saw the most play. I missed by far the absolute high of the white soul, but I was happy enough to sell it with a +130% profit. Surfing on the crazy mythic buyouts wave I was able to pull off a moderate profit from the green and red souls that were never incorporated in serious Standard decks.

In Summary

With a +66.7% total gain from my initial Tix investment, M15 mythics really did great.

Once again, the basket and the blind strategy with core set mythics paid off. Make sure to consider this with Magic Origins. A new implementation of this strategy would be to sell mythics even earlier if they're pricey at the beginning and see no play after the fall Pro Tour.

This is especially true with first-print planeswalkers, which have been confirmed in Magic Origins. There will probably be time to buy them back in November/December at a discounted price for a potential rebound. This is what happened to Nissa, Worldwaker and Garruk, Apex Predator this year.

If this is to happen again with Magic Origins, watch out for buyout spikes. They are a great opportunity to sell cheap mythics that are not seeing any play.

Results With Rares

If speculations with core set mythics are great, speculations with rares are a must. I'm not totally done selling my M15 rares but even without counting the cards I have left for sale the overall result is pretty nice. Here are my current results as of last weekend.

I haven't sold any Phyrexian Revoker yet and I have sold only 32 Yavimaya Coast. Still, my investment on M15 rares is already up by 75.6%, and is likely to be over 80% with the Revokers and Coasts sold even bellow their current price.

If my results show three losing positions (four including Phyrexian Revoker), all of them, with the exception of Chord of Calling, got higher than my buying price at some point between last August and now. Only my selling timing was not good. Genesis Hydra for instance was high right before Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir and is soaring now again--pretty wrong timing here I have to admit.

The Losers

Chord of Calling is probably the only real loser here. This card is certainly strong but doesn't fit in any deck, even green ones. The recent ban of Birthing Pod certainly didn't help, since I was counting on some help from Modern. Here is what I said about Chord of Calling back in June 2014 when it was spoiled in M15.

Sadly, Chord went down as low as 0.5 Tix. Would it get better with Dragons of Tarkir? Maybe, maybe not, I'm out anyway.

Scuttling Doom Engine and Phyrexian Revoker got a price increase soon after Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir, as many other M15 rares did. I'll be selling my Revokers this month in any case.

The Winners

They were probably the most obvious spec of the year--the pain lands. As expected all of them saw a very nice increase once Khans of Tarkir kicked in and according to their popularity in our current Standard metagame. In average, they doubled. In particular Shivan Reef and Battlefield Forge spiked pretty nicely. I was out a little bit too early with the Forges but it doesn't really matter.

If Magic Origins reprint the ally pain lands I highly recommend you do not miss them and put all the Tix you can reasonably invest in them. Talking about sure bets, these would be the absolute surest bets you can find.

As seen in M14, any decent rare has a shot sooner or later. Chasm Skulker, Waste Not, Obelisk of Urd and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth were sleepers that waited for their moment and Hushwing Gryff topped them all. With all these rares, and unlike the loser ones, not being greedy when the spike occurred was key to my financial success.

What About the Other Rares?

Several other rares spiked from bulk rare to a Tix or two, starting with Hornet Queen. The queen was as low as 0.1 Tix at some point in September and got as high as in November and December. Only core sets offer these kind of fluctuations in a short period of time.

Other examples? Hornet Nest, Aetherspouts, Yisan, the Wanderer Bard and Chief Engineer are rares that were near or at bulk value at some point and that were priced at 1 Tix later on. With the rares I selected that's about two dozen rares that would have been good speculative targets. The number of rares that see an increase in price is higher in core sets than in any other sets, and there is no need to wait for rotation of Standard.

In Summary

With a final percentage being near +80%, my M15 rare specs were successful, with many big winners and very few losers.

Lands are once again the best place to invest. If any sort of land cycle is printed in Magic Origins I would make sure to invest massively in them, even more than any other positions. If lightly played they are guaranteed to rise in a continuous way, not as a sudden spike. Several reprints don't even seem to affect the trend.

If you buy in bulk rares, I would suggest not lets any hype opportunity go by. Sell into it, make your profit and move on--prices with rares are less likely to sustain the way mythics do.

Magic Origins, Similar or Different?

A few words about what Magic Origins could be in terms of speculation. The set rotation structure has changed but this last core set should retain most of what makes core sets speculative bombs--a large set drafted in the middle of the summer for only three months and with undervalued reprints.

Buying in during the first weeks after release still seems to be a good strategy, although rares tend to dip further as the release of the fall set get closer and closer. This additional dip is the opportunity to reinforce your position. For instance, I bought most of my Hushwing Gryff at ~0.3 Tix in September. By late September they dipped as low 0.05 Tix and I bought additional playsets as this card seemed really good to me.

Watch out for reprints, particularly lands. They are the best undervalued positions you can find and very rarely disappoint.

Finally, a basket of a dozen positions or more is your ultimate insurance against negative results. This strategy paid off with M15 mythics and rares--make good use of it with Magic Origins.

On My Way Out

Because of imminent changes in my day job I'll have to slow down my MTGO speculations and also stop my regular QS Insider articles. I won't rule out writing special articles here and there but I'll have to spend more time on my new job, at least for the first few months.

It's been really great to write here at QS and to share my experiences with you. I hope my articles were useful for your specs.

I'll be still around on the forums, on Twitter, co-writting the MTGO Market Report with Matt and keeping the 100 Tix 1 Year project going.

 

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain