Comments on: The Fairness of Thopter Combo and How to Fight It https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Wed, 13 Apr 2016 14:48:27 +0000 hourly 1 By: Darcy Hartwick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125264 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 14:48:27 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125264 In reply to David Ernenwein.

Twin was strong yes but very very few people felt it was actually in need of a ban from the format. The best watered-down-twin can do is be worse than twin, which nobody was that worried about before the ban (although we may mostly feel in retrospect that it was in fact a good move to get rid of it).

I also think that the temptation to just throw a couple thopters and swords into whatever shell will be limited as both pieces are embarassingly bad on their own, unlike an exarch that could do work or a twin that could be dropped onto a snapcaster or wall of omens as a worst case.

I play a lot of esper control and few people think its a good idea to change your win con of colonnade/elspeth/white suns zenith over to a bunch of thopters and swords. Control without thopter/sword will continue to be a thing (whether its even tier 2 is another question). So far this looks mostly like a new gifts ungiven toy to add to their iona/norn mix – imo it remains to be seen whether thopter sword and its setup cost of academy ruins or noxious revival wins enough games that norn or iona wouldn’t have won just as easily.

I say all this without having had a single opponent assemble the combo against me yet though. I may feel very differently if all the theory on how easy it is to stop or how you would have lost to a ham sandwich anyways turns to sand and I find myself constantly losing to the combo if I don’t have the answer right now (i.e. effectively the same thing as twin but with the illusion that you actually have time to draw out of it)

]]>
By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125263 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 22:53:28 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125263 In reply to Roscoe Shomo.

Bloom was pretty clearly unfair. Insane mana generation, single turn wins and using cards in ways not intended? Pretty clearly unfair. It had fair components and could potentially play fair games but it was set up to be unfair. This is doesn’t mean it was “broken” by any means, just that it wasn’t playing by the rules.

]]>
By: Roscoe Shomo https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125262 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 22:01:54 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125262 In reply to David Ernenwein.

Oh man even better, fair, “fair” and unfair. I didn’t even realize the quotes. I like this even more now.

As for eldrazi, you get to be all professional in the article, and I appreciate that. I get to profess my undying hate of eldrazi in the comments by making hyperbolic statements.

Tho in all seriousness, eye-powered eldrazi I truly believe was teetering on full blown unfair. I think one can compare it to Amulet Bloom, another ultimately “fair” deck that was bordering unfair. Did you think that was an unfair or a “fair” deck?

]]>
By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125261 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 21:37:58 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125261 In reply to Darcy Hartwick.

You’re probably right, though remember that Twin was really good so a watered down version should still be good. I agree that it is unlikely to be a free win by itself but it could end up being a way to simply buy the time needed to set up an actual free win. It’s going to depend not so much on the combo itself but what the rest of the deck is doing, and that fact may mean that in context it is very broken.

]]>
By: Jacob Kellogg https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125260 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 21:35:27 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125260 You know, even before the unbanning, I was seriously considering making a deck that ran mainboard Pithing Needle. Foundry as a Needle hit gets added to an already long list: Lili, Scooze, Vial, Cursecatcher, Ezuri, Plating, Mutavault, Bl/Inkmoth, Ravager, Spellskite, Fulminator, Quarter, Karn, Map…

]]>
By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125259 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 21:31:15 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125259 In reply to Roscoe Shomo.

I would just say that Jund and UWx are simply fair, opposed to “fair” or unfair. They’re close to the definition really.

My thinking is that what Eldrazi did was a fair plan, play undercosted aggressive creatures on a curve, that was made unfair thanks to Eye and Eldrazi Temple. Doing something fair unfairly puts in the same “fair” category as Affinity. I admit it was much, much better at it than anyone and its explosiveness was ridiculous but since the game plan itself is fair I stand by my evaluation.

]]>
By: Darcy Hartwick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125258 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 20:53:27 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125258 Don’t know that there was a way around it but I have the count on the word “fair” in this article at over 9000.

Imo this is watered down splinter twin. Two cards that when put together will usually win the game, but on their own are bad (of note single exarch or mite is far better than half the thopter combo). This combo can’t be pathed or dismembered but can be k-commanded or scavenging oozed, and takes incidental hate from a lot of existing cards.

If the combo is actually super strong it will be because you don’t need 8 deck slots for it. Gifts lists are going down to 3 total or even just a 1/1 split. That’s very low opportunity cost and makes sideboarding in stony silence look pretty lame (although gy hate will stop gifts and this combo both cold).

I’d like to think there are so many answers to it that it won’t be a free win that often, but I suppose time will tell.

]]>
By: Roscoe Shomo https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125257 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 20:50:50 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125257 In reply to Roscoe Shomo.

Two types of fair decks woops

]]>
By: Roscoe Shomo https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125256 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 20:48:56 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125256 Loved this article. I use the same exact definitions for fair and unfair. It’s funny but when you think about it there are just so few real fair decks in modern. I think the most important part of this article, however, is the distinction you make between yhe two types of unfair decks. As a perfect example, when you first classified affinity as unfair earlier in your article, I had this uneasy feeling because according to our shared definition, affinity doesn’t really classify as unfair, although it certainly feels like it sometimes. Likewise with infect, that is clearly playing a fair game, but can feel so unfair when you lose before turn three. Is there a third classification for purely fair decks like Jund or UWx control?

Also, I will have to disagree, eldrazi was straight unfair with eye. Eye itself isn’t unfair, tho in context, it became broken by cards printed to yield a truly unfair deck. While it may be comparable to affinity in its “puke my hand out” way, affinity at least has to pay for that (fairly) by playing trash cards (on their own). Eldrazi was unfair specifically because it paid no price on the broken things it was doing with eye. At least temple can only be used once a turn, which moves it back to the unfairly doing fair things (yes it’s unfair that a land produces 2 mana, but it fairly uses it within the game’s rules).

]]>
By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125255 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 20:42:02 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125255 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

As long as it’s home is in fair decks I completely agree, Roland. However if an already unfair deck wants this combo then it might be a problem. Whether its because it goes infinite with Krark-Clan Ironworks or is used as an alternative win condition that is unaffected by the hate for the rest of the deck there is definitely potential for abuse, which is why I’ll be putting Rest in Peace in all of my decks until the format settles more.

]]>
By: David Ernenwein https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125254 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 20:36:33 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125254 In reply to Michael Warme.

You are correct, which is why I noted that there is a very big difference between being behind with Thopter combo vs being ahead. For the reasons you describe I expect that the combo will be paired, at least initially, with Ancestral Visions in control decks whether or not it is actually appropriate to do so. That said it could easily be broken in the right deck, it’s just too early to tell.

]]>
By: Michael Warme https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125253 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 19:11:54 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125253 It’s important to note that the card advantage from making a ton of tokens isn’t actually the same as drawing cards from your deck–one of the problems thopter-sword decks have had in the past is the ability to actually protect the combo or disrupt opposing combo decks. The thopter sword deck in modern likely won’t have the ability to beat a more dedicated control shell with better access to interactive spells or lock pieces, unless it finds some way to blend with another combo (like hex-depths in extended). I think the existence of this deck may be a boon to actual control decks in modern.

]]>
By: Jordan Boisvert https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125252 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 17:14:25 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125252 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Nice theory on fair vs. unfair. Modern is full of decks cheating on Mana. I’d argue that’s how almost every deck in Modern wins. If decks aren’t outright cheating (Storm, Ad Nauseam, Tron), they’re casting spells that are way more powerful than their mana cost suggests (Bolt, Goyf, Thoughtseize). It’s important not to confuse “cheating” with “raw efficiency,” but they line can be blurry at times, as is the case with Thopter/Sword.

]]>
By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/thopter-combo-fair-fight/#comment-2125251 Tue, 12 Apr 2016 16:29:26 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8898#comment-2125251 This is a strong article. I think the powerful-but-ultimately-fair label is a good description for the likes of Thopter combo, and I also think that identifying its weak points (doesn’t save you from big chunk damage, especially if it comes via evasive creatures; soft to artifact and graveyard hate; soft to sweepers) is important, since some of the reaction just comes across as people trying to play the way they used to play before the card was introduced. Chances are your sideboard will have to pay a bit of lip service to it, and that’s OK – those sideboard cards are good against other decks anyway.

]]>