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Primers and Glossary

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The follow article will serve as a set of definitions and explanations for terms and concepts used in “The Nutt Draw” article series. It will be updated over time.

    The Demand Matrix

Purpose: The initial intent of the Demand Matrix was to apply a portable and simply calculated mathematical structure which can be applied to any set or subset of cards in order to proportionally rank a cards actual popularity.

Method: Within a given list of cards (for example, M11, Standard, Extended etc) sum the total dollars spent within a specific and defined time frame. With the largest total spend being allocated the number 100, rank all the other cards with quantifiable spends within the same time frame as a measure of their proportional totals.

Results: To date, the sorted list and accompanying Demand Index numbers have held true to being an accurate measurement of the demand/popularity of Magic cards. The Demand Index data has also proved to be useful when applied to other subsets of cards such as Buy Lists.

    The Womby List(s)

Purpose: The Womby Lists are intended to give us a list of cards who’s average sale price on eBay is lower than the price that some online stores are purchasing them for.

Method: These lists were inspired by the comment of a reader (Womby) who was explaining what he uses some of the data I have assembled for. It was a great idea and so to make it easier on him, and give everyone else similar data these lists were generated.

Results: So far the information generated by the Womby Lists has proven to be very useful. They can be used as a direct tool for selling cards, but also as a guide for trading as an indication which cards might have better margins in other markets.

    Glossary

Cost: The monetary amount an item is procured for.
Demand Index: The value assigned to a card within a subset of cards as calculated by the Demand Matrix.
EV: Estimated Value.
Price: The monetary amount an item is sold for.

Chris McNutt

Born in Seattle, Washington, Chris McNutt has been playing and collecting Magic: The Gathering since Unlimited Edition. As an active player, tournament organizer and judge he regularly scrubs out of Pro Tour Qualifiers but inexplicably cleans up at the local draft tables. When not net decking Chris is either busy working as an Information Technology Sales Rep or spending time with his family. Other non-magical pastimes include playing guitar and an unhealthy number of video games. Cursed with an undying love of generating spreadsheets purely for “fun”, he’ll be crunching the numbers each week in order to serve up delicious data burritos to the salivating, hungry readers of Quiet Speculation.

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Doublin’ Season

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Everyone’s been begging me to write about what I’ve been doing since the changes to Extended were announced, and up until this point, I’ve been busy actually swinging trades!  The announcement came unexpectedly, and along with some Legacy changes, totally shook up the Extended format, which we anticipate will effect the Winter PTQ season.  I was fortunate enough not to own ‘Goyfs or Shock Lands or anything else that was about to take a nosedive, but I did make a few mistakes when making my purchases.  Thankfully, I made enough smart trades to make up for it.

Read the rest on MTGO Academy!

Kelly Reid

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Posted in Uncategorized1 Comment on Doublin’ Season

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Holy Crap, Double Standard!

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I have so much to say about this, I need to digest my thoughts.  But just so people know where my wallet is these days, here's a ledger of what I just picked up on MTGO.  Just curious to see what people think of my acquisitons!

(4)     9th Edition Online - Karplusan Forest @ 0.35: $1.40
(8)     9th Edition Online - Llanowar Wastes @ 0.35: $2.80
(4)     Eventide Online - Cascade Bluffs @ 4.25: $17.00
(4)     Eventide Online - Fetid Heath @ 5.75: $23.00
(4)     Eventide Online - Flooded Grove @ 3.00: $12.00
(4)     Eventide Online - Rugged Prairie @ 1.75: $7.00
(4)     Lorwyn Online - Deathrender @ 0.60: $2.40
(4)     Lorwyn Online - Thorn of Amethyst @ 0.20: $0.80
(4)     Lorwyn Online Foil - Burrenton Forge-Tender - FOIL @ 0.06: $0.24
(4)     Lorwyn Online Foil - Merrow Reejerey - FOIL @ 0.20: $0.80
(2)     Magic 2010 Online - Elvish Archdruid @ 1.15: $2.30
(4)     Magic 2010 Online - Great Sable Stag @ 0.40: $1.60
(4)     Morningtide Online - Countryside Crusher @ 2.00: $8.00
(4)     Morningtide Online - Declaration of Naught @ 0.10: $0.40
(4)     Morningtide Online - Rustic Clachan @ 0.10: $0.40
(4)     Promotional 2 Online - Boggart Ram-Gang @ 0.30: $1.20
(4)     Shadowmoor Online - Dramatic Entrance @ 0.30: $1.20
(4)     Shadowmoor Online - Flame javelin @ 0.20: $0.80
(4)     Shadowmoor Online - Fulminator Mage @ 2.00: $8.00
(4)     Shadowmoor Online - Plumeveil @ 0.05: $0.20
(4)     Shadowmoor Online - Savor the Moment @ 0.40: $1.60
(4)     Shadowmoor Online - Wooded Bastion @ 0.90: $3.60
(2)     Shadowmoor Online Foil - Plumeveil - FOIL @ 0.06: $0.12
4       Eventide Online - Figure of Destiny     7.00    28.00
4       Eventide Online - Twilight Mire         2.50    10.00
4       Future Sight Online - Grove of the Burnwillows  2.00    8.00
4       Future Sight Online - Horizon Canopy    1.50    6.00
4       Future Sight Online - River of Tears    2.25    9.00
4       Lorwyn Online - Cloudthresher   0.10    0.40
4       Lorwyn Online - Gilt-Leaf Palace        0.30    1.20
4       Lorwyn Online - Mistbind Clique         0.70    2.80
4       Lorwyn Online - Rings of Brighthearth   0.20    0.80
4       Lorwyn Online - Scion of Oona   0.60    2.40
4       Lorwyn Online - Secluded Glen   0.70    2.80
4       Lorwyn Online - Sower of Temptation     1.75    7.00
4       Lorwyn Online - Thoughtseize    3.85    15.40
2       Lorwyn Online Foil - Gilt-Leaf Palace - FOIL    0.90    1.80
3       Lorwyn Online Foil - Scion of Oona - FOIL       1.20    3.60
4       Morningtide Online - Chameleon Colossus         2.00    8.00
3       Morningtide Online - Mutavault  6.00    18.00
4       Morningtide Online - Reveillark         1.15    4.60
4       Promotional 2 Online - Treetop Village  0.35    1.40
4       Shadowmoor Online - Fire-Lit Thicket    0.90    3.60
4       Shadowmoor Online - Graven Cairns       0.70    2.80
4       Shadowmoor Online - Mystic Gate         1.75    7.00
4       Shadowmoor Online - Sunken Ruins        2.75    11.00
4       Shadowmoor Online - Sygg, River Cutthroat       0.70    2.80
4       Shards of Alara Online - Broodmate Dragon       0.35    1.40
4       Planar Chaos Online - Extirpate         4.75    19.00
4       Planar Chaos Online - Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth  3.25    13.00
4       9th Edition Online - Underground River  0.35    1.40
4       Time Spiral Online - Ancestral Vision   1.30    5.20
4       Lorwyn Online - Auntie's Hovel  0.40    1.60
4       Lorwyn Online - Incandescent Soulstoke  0.20    0.80
4       Lorwyn Online - Incendiary Command      0.12    0.48
4       Lorwyn Online - Mosswort Bridge         0.35    1.40
4       Morningtide Online - Murmuring Bosk     0.70    2.80
4       Shadowmoor Online - Swans of Bryn Argoll        0.80    3.20
4       8th Edition Online - Seismic Assault    0.50    2.00
4       Lorwyn Online - Windbrisk Heights       0.50    2.00
4       Magic 2010 Online - Honor of the Pure   0.80    3.20
4       Shadowmoor Online - Spectral Procession         0.12  
 0.48
2       Shadowmoor Online Foil - Spectral Procession - FOIL     0.30    0.60
4       Urza's Saga Online - Glorious Anthem    0.50    2.00
(These are priced per QTY, so divide the price by the QTY to get my price per card)
4 x Mutavault (MORR024ON) = $28.00
4 x Cloudthresher (ON_LORR045) = $0.60
1 x Broodmate Dragon (ON_SOAR034) = $0.90
4 x Rings of Brighthearth (ON_LORR019) = $0.80
4 x Horde of Notions (ON_LORR065) = $0.60
4 x Windbrisk Heights (ON_LORR073) = $2.00
20 x Vivid Meadow (ON_LORU032) = $3.00
20 x Vivid Marsh (ON_LORU031) = $3.00
20 x Vivid Grove (ON_LORU060) = $3.00
20 x Vivid Creek (ON_LORU012) = $3.00
20 x Vivid Crag (ON_LORU059) = $3.00
4 x Scion of Oona (ON_LORR052) = $2.40
8 x Gilt-Leaf Palace (ON_LORR050) = $2.40
4 x Bitterblossom (MORR009ON) = $35.00
4 x Vendilion Clique (MORR034ON) = $22.00
4 x Reflecting Pool (ON_SHMR006) = $24.00
4 x Cryptic Command (ON_LORR024) = $18.00
4 x Mistbind Clique (ON_LORR051) = $5.00
4 x Secluded Glen (ON_LORR020) = $3.60

Kelly Reid

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6/17 Podcast, Twitter Q&A + What’s Your Given discussion

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It’s A Given

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We all have them.  They're ingrained in our brains as immutable fixed concepts, and we think they make us smarter and more experienced.  I'm talking about knowledge that's "a given".  For example, how many times did you hear "Blue just isn't good in this format?"  How soon after that did Patrick Chapin revitalize the UW Control archetype?  Right.  Another example is Jon Medina's de-foiling process.  For a long while, Jon's Given was that he "didn't trade his foils".  We all have them, and they're doing you more harm than good.

Mine is my EDH box & my cube.  While the cube is a delicate ecosystem and can't be traded-from on a whim,  I'm going to revisit my EDH box today and consider what needs to be made available again.  I, of all people, need to stay honest about what cards would be better as liquid assets.  For example, I have a Tarmogoyf, Mox Diamond and a Force of Will in there.  That's about $200 of cards locked up that will never ever get me value.  What would happen if I put them in the display case (or in your case, trade binder) and only traded them when the deal was most favorable?  Since they're cards I dont use often anyway, I can trade them out for value and then take any chance to pick up those cards if/when I locate them at a discount.

Another example is of a friend who isn't playing a lot of Magic these days.  He needed more time to take care of other priorities in life, including his health, his SO, and his career.  He realized that playing FNM was something he just automatically did each week, but didn't really enjoy a whole lot, nor did he get good EV from it.  By reassessing his "given" he freed up at least 4-5 hours a week, which is quite a lot for someone who's got no free time.

I find this process to be good when building a Limited deck too.  Sometimes you have a card in your deck that's "too good to cut", but halfway through your 1st match you realize it's just awful in your particular deck.  That's why you need to ignore those shortcuts sometimes and re-assess what was formerly something unquestionable.  I know I'll be looking for more ways to do this in my daily life, Magic and otherwise.

What are some of your givens that need re-evaluation?

Kelly Reid

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Twitter Q&A Podcast!

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Kelly Reid

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Video Review of Garruk’s DOTP Deck

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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7zbkQbroa8]

The kind folks at WotC sent me a review copy of the Garruk DOTP deck, so I did what any blogger would do. I did a review!

Podcasting About Avenger of Zendikar

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Some Stuff for Sale!

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I've been buying up a ton of cards in my store lately, and while it's great to sit upon a mountain of cardboard like a dragon hoarding gold, my business sense tells me to do otherwise.  I'm using this as a good excuse to get started using Magic Online Trading League, something that Jon Medina of MTG Metagame has been telling me to do for ages.  You can check out all the stuff I have for sale right here!  The prices are pretty good, and there's a smattering of all sorts of interesting stuff from Standard and older. 

Kelly Reid

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Avenger of Zendikar Over/Under!

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In light of the LSV and Co. performance in Seattle with Turbo Land, Jon Medina and I were discussing the future value of the card.  I've been loving this card for ages, and was expecting it to be huge in post-Rotation Standard.  I'd like to know what my readers think the highest price of AZ will be during it's tour of Standard (that's from now until Oct 2011, remember?).  It's at around $6 as I write this, so vote in the poll on the right!

If you vote "Over $5", that implies "Under $10", etc.  If you think AZ will settle between 10 and 15, vote Over $10.  The prize is knowing you're wicked smart, so GO VOTE!

Kelly Reid

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Brooklyn Valentine by Rachel Levine

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This has nothing to do with Magic or gaming, but I just got an email from my lovely mother of all people.  She's a writer by profession (it's where I get the genes, I guess) and her book just hit Amazon!  I'm linking it here because she's one hell of a writer.  Seriously, I got nothin' on her skills.   She paints a wonderful picture of Brooklyn without drawing on the stereotypes that most non-New Yorkers rely upon.  It's definitely more of interest to women, but I can't imagine that a few of my Magic-playing readers don't need a cute little gift for a wife or girlfriend soon!

I don't usually take up front-page space to plug stuff, but this is worth the read.  I would very much appreciate if you bought a copy and gave it a readthrough.  She's a great writer and really knows how to tell a story.  Let me know how you like it if you go ahead and get a copy!

Click Here if you dont see the thumbnail!

The QS Summer Tour

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This is something I've been considering for a while, but I finally began the planning stages of the QS Summer Tour.  I'm still in the process of scouting stops/locations and planning the route, but keep checking here and on the Tour blog for updates, maps, thoughts and so on.  Here's the About section so you know what's up:

View KB's Summer Tour in a larger map

Welcome aboard! In the spirit of Magic, Community and The Great American Road Trip, I'm putting together the QS Summer Tour. This ambitious undertaking is my personal passion project to showcase the power of Social Media in today's game. By making use of my network around the country, I will visit small (and large!) local game shops across the land. 
 
I hope to take this trip in the second half of Summer 2010, either in mid July or late August.  My initial idea is to budget 10-18 days, and the final length will depend on fiscal budget, time, and the actual route that emerges. 

Objectives
  • The Power of Social Networking.  Using Facebook and Twitter to connect with fans and readers who would enjoy meeting me, I will plot a route that takes me to as many diverse locations in North America as I possibly can.
  • The Diversity of the Magic Community.  I hope to meet and write about professional players, casual afficionados, Limited and Constructed players, EDH'ers, kitchen table warriors, and every other type of player there is.
  • The Evolution of Blogging.  There are a few people that make a living through blogging, but I want to prove that an undertaking like this is not so ambitious as people think.  By using strict budgeting and time management, I want to show that long trips like this are more accessible than people think.
Media

  • A blog (this one!) will be maintained documenting the trip and the people I meet in written word, photo and video.
  • Text updates will be as frequent as travel and my schedule will allow.  I will aim for multiple daily updates of shorter length, sometimes just updating to post a few images.
  • If equipment is available, video coverage is desirable.  A sponsor may need to lend or donate a video camera since the iPhone's camera is really sub-par.
 Funding

  •  The trip will be strictly budgeted, both for the sanity of the author and to demonstrate the power of being conscious and sticking to a budget.  This lesson will help many who have trouble understanding how to treat their Magic-playing time as a business.
  • The trip will have a few sponsors who both support what the endeavor represents and who would like to capture some of the attention that the trip will garner.  I intend this to be a media spectacle in the Magic community, as nothing of the sort has been done before.  
  • QS readers will also have the opportunity to donate money to the cause.  This money will be retained in a dedicated paypal account until it is needed.  Should the trip not occur for any reason, donations would be refunded.

 Feel free to make a donation on that page!  Any amount, even a freakin' penny, is appreciated.  If you represent a dealer, site, or company and would like to learn more about sponsorship and advertising opportunities, email me directly.

Kelly Reid

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New Game+ Naya

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Here's a copy of the Naya list people have been asking about.  Some testing last night showed that Baneslayer Angel let us play better cards, and won the same type of games Khalni Hydra did.  I'm benching our Octo-Headed friend for a little while and enjoying playing this Naya list.  It would be dumb to say I built it "from scratch", but I mainly just took a broad-scope look at the cards that red, white and green had to offer.

Ajani was Oblivion Ring for a while, but we ended up tagging him in because of his versatility against certain tough matches.  It seemed slightly better against Mythic than O Ring, and was a great card against Red decks too.  That also led us to include Goblin Ruinblasters as yet another Hasted creature.  Having 7 cards to perform mana denial while adding damage or other value to the board was very much a luxury!

My goal was to have almost every card in the deck do two things; advance the board state and change the tempo of the game mana-wise.  If you look at the cards closely, you will see clearly how each card alters the "virtual" turn you are playing on.  For example, untapping with Knight of the Reliquary puts you ahead by at least a turn, 2 or 3 if you have Cobra out.   A turn 1 Hierarch adds an extra damage and puts you a turn ahead.  Bloodbraid Elf hits the red zone immediately and then gives you an extra free play, which feels like playing two turns ahead.  An early Baneslayer can, and will, end some games.  Vengevine lowers your post-Wrath rebound time by at least a turn; often times, it makes Wrath and outright liability.  Your post-Wrath counterattack can easily hit 9 damage if you Cascade into a Ruinblaster and rebuy Vengevine.

Momentous Fall had to get a nod because it is just so filthy in the matchups where it's any good.  I will admit there are some games that I really hate Momentous Fall, but they are few and far between.  The deck's namesake earns its keep in almost every matchup.  Against Control decks, it lets you turn a Wrath into an excellent parry-riposte type situation.  By cashing in your best guy, you will probably have enough cards to hit back hard post-Wrath.  Doubly so if there's a Vengevine in the discussion.  It was even sicker with Khalni Hydra, but now that the deck has 9 ways to gain a LOT of life quickly, it's become nigh-impossible to outright race.

The brew is beatable, but it would probably be my top choice for an aggro deck for an upcoming PTQ.  It has a lot of Jund-like elements (ridiculous Cascades, tons of 2-for-1s, board presence), as well as having the life-gain that Naya can threaten.  It sacrifices a bit of removal quality (O Ring isn't Pulse, but it's kind of close) for versatility.  Goblin Ruinblaster does, in a roundabout way, everything you need a card to do; give you 4-drop power with 3-drop eligibility, puts you a turn ahead on mana, and effects combat immediately.   A lot more testing is necessary, but the deck is mostly tight.  Green is so deep right now, that I cannot fathom playing an aggro deck without Elf, Cobra, Vine, Hierarch and KotR. Momentous Fall is a far bigger beating than anyone realizes right now.   Baneslayer fills the "I Win" creature slot that Khalni Hydra once occupied.

It's a hoot to play, and you almost never feel like you're out of a game.  Sometimes you think you're out of it, but a Momentous Fall puts you back up to 10+ life and you suddenly untap and Bloodbraid + Vengevine them right out of the game.

New Game+ Naya
Bloodbraid Elf 4 Bloodbraid Elf
Lotus Cobra 4 Lotus Cobra
Vengevine 4 Vengevine
Noble Hierarch 4 Noble Hierarch
Knight of the Reliquary 4 Knight of the Reliquary
Steward of Valeron 2 Steward of Valeron
Baneslayer Angel 3 Baneslayer Angel
Goblin Ruinblaster 4 Goblin Ruinblaster
Ajani Vengeant 3 Ajani Vengeant
Momentous Fall 3 Momentous Fall
Raging Ravine 1 Raging Ravine
Stirring Wildwood 2 Stirring Wildwood
Jungle Shrine 2 Jungle Shrine
Verdant Catacombs 4 Verdant Catacombs
Misty Rainforest 1 Misty Rainforest
Arid Mesa 1 Arid Mesa
Rootbound Crag 2 Rootbound Crag
Sunpetal Grove 2 Sunpetal Grove
Forest 6 Forest
Plains 1 Plains
Mountain 1 Mountain
Dauntless Escort 2 Dauntless Escort
Named after the New Game Plus option in Japanese RPGs because of Momentous Fall's tendency to just rebuy entire matches. The sideboard needs to be constructed for your metagame, but it probably contains 4 Sparkmages, 1 Basilisk Collar, 2 Stoneforge Mystics, 2 Dauntless Escorts, and 6 cards of your choice.

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