This week I’m going to take some more time to update you on the progress of the Demand Matrix and expand on what we’ve gone over in the past.
I’ve re-written and expanded the source data that feeds into the matrix and laid the ground work for expanding it to be able to cover Extended, Legacy and Vintage. I’m a ways away from having all the code together to calculate the demand trends in Legacy and Vintage, but Extended should be added before too long. I’m now using three primary time frames for referencing and establishing demand of the cards in standard. Since there is an easily accessible collection of data summing up the last month, week, and 2-15 days as groups, I’m crunching those and comparing the results to establish some bite sized results.
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I’m very happy to reveal that the hypotheses seem to be bearing out. For the first time since I’ve been recording and watching these figures dance around a new leader has been crowned as the most “in-demand” card. As you can see above, Primeval Titan has upset Jace, the Mind Scupltor for the most purchased card (by overall cumulative sales volume). It’s also interesting to note that Baneslayer Angel has appeared to be making a comeback and I would guess this is because of the recently falling price of said Angel. All my Magic brethren out there who are finally completing play sets can thank the more interesting cardboard in the Titan cycle as well as Fauna Shaman for the bargain. Also new to the Demand Matrix this week are the columns for “DI Change” and “Cards of Note.”
The values in DI Change (Demand Index Change) represent the difference between the most stable of the calculations, those boiling down a month’s worth of data, and the most volatile, figures only from the last full day. There are a number of pretty interesting Index movements in addition to the cards listed above. Obstinate Baloth has jumped up 14 spots, Verdant Catacombs up 7 spots while Arid Mesa is down 7, and quite surprisingly to me, little baby Jace Beleren is up 7 spots in rank. I’ll leave the reasons for this up to the strategists, but the individual reasons could be anything from coincidental purchases to every player in Texas deciding on a U/W Control build with original recipe Jace’s for extra crispy Jace removal.
Also new on the chart with week is the Cards of Note column along with its defining value. I’ve rather arbitrarily chosen to indicate the top 6 cards according to the largest numerical jump in Demand Index values from the weekly results versus the daily results. I would use the monthly figures instead of the weekly figures but they tend to create some false positives on newer cards since they haven’t been around for a full month. This week the cards leaping up and demanding some attention are Baneslayer Angel, Vengevine, Gideon Jura, Grave Titan, Fauna Shaman, and Obstinate Baloth in that order. Some of you might wonder why Vengevine and Gideon Jura are both down in rank for the week as well as some of the cards that are showing the most overall individual increases in the Index. This is because they’ve gone down in relation to some other cards rather meteoric rises, but still have notable increases compared to their own records and we’ll no doubt see more apparent contradictions. Once I am able to solely rely on my own data (I’m learning Python!) I’ll be able to specifically present some cards that are falling in demand as well, hopefully as a precursor to a price drop, but I’m sure that you can agree with me that this is a place where we don’t want false positives.
I’m also continuing to build in some more calculations to give us a bit of a heads up about what cards I should possibly be paying special attention to outside of the most valuable cards. There’s a lot more to come with the Demand Matrix.
When we last looked at the Demand Matrix I mentioned a few other aspects we still could still explore, one of which is a practical implementation for this information. I envision that once I have the calculations, formation of the data and organization of the data fully automated, with all the details disclosed for independent auditing, we’ll have a new system that we can really rely on. In my grandest delusions I can see where an online store who is particularly fond of us or the system might tack on the Index number to some of the more valuable cards. For example, perhaps instead of charging $37.99 for a Baneslayer Angel and $84.99 for a Jace, the Mind Sculptor, CoolStuffInc.com might instead charge $37.83 and $84.90 to indicate those cards Demand Indexes of 83 and 90. As I fall farther into my delusions I see how some stores might even donate their sales data to the cause in order to make the Indexes more accurate. I could be dreaming a bit too big on that one, but I really hope that it becomes a tool that people other than myself use. I also really hope that you can see the same potential in it that I do.
And lastly for this week, in the spirit of giving you information you can use in real life I leave you with the Set EV spreadsheet and the following request. If there is something you’d like explained or other data you’d like to see, please sound off in the comments or drop me an email.
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