The Revenue Review – Breaking down States

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Welcome back to the Revenue Review, where this week there are plenty of innovative and surprising lists to review from States!

Just kidding.

States turned out to be exactly what we expected – a lot of Primeval Titan and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. The other decks we I identified last week also made appearances, with Elves putting up a strong showing behind Ezuri, Renegade Leader, and Wurmcoil Engine proving its worth. We also saw a number of Eldrazi Monuments show up, which I’m pointing out purely to link to this article.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some nuggets we can pull out of the results to get a look at the possible evolution of the metagame and the prices associated with that. Rather than walk you through the most successful cards you should be trying to pick up (which I did here last week), this week I’ve scoured the Top 8s we have to find the White Stag hiding inside (+1 Jon Medina for the term).

First of all, we have two Mythics from Scars that you need to be aware of moving forward. The first is Molten-Tail Masticore, which has been cropping up in more and more lists since its release. This card is on the way up, not down, and I don’t think you’re going to find a better time to jump in on these than now. I don’t see this dropping much from its current levels in the coming months.

The second Mythic to look at is something of a surprise since I didn’t expect to see it break into Standard so soon. Lux Cannon made a few showings in the Top 8 (takes on it here and here). With two more sets to come from Mirrodin we can expect Proliferate to soon be back (and in greater numbers), making the Cannon a definite card to watch out for (read: pick up ASAP).

As I’ve touched on before, Mythics are where speculators and traders can make the most money. When Mythics are bad, traders value them at bulk rare prices; but when they begin to see competitive play, the difference between rarity becomes a huge deal. These decks should have a better matchup against Ramp decks than traditional U/W does, making it a potentially huge player in the coming metagame.

There’s also another previously unplayed Mythic that made at least one Top 8 appearance over the weekend. Abyssal Persecutor made it to the final tables in Ohio, and the card is just too powerful to ignore. I don’t think these are a good buy at current prices, but they’re definitely worth picking up in trades if you can, since a 6/6 flying, trampling, budget replacement for a Titan is going to be easy to move.

But what’s that other card in that list? Mimic Vat? I have no idea how good it is, but at least it’s one of the only Imprint cards that doesn’t immediately two-for-one you. It’s a Johnny-tastic card that you should be able to find a home for, and its appearance in several Top 8 decks gives you some leverage when trading it away.

Genesis Wave also showed up in a few different decks. This is another card that appeals to both Timmies and Johnnies, and I haven’t had any issues making value on cards that fit that category.

One more find for you. Check out this list, by Travis Woo (Living End guy). It’s pretty similar to just about every other ramp deck out there, but it features a very different finisher. Enter Ob Nixilis, the Fallen. I don’t know if this list is better than Valakut or mono-Green (I suspect not), but I’m including it for the sake of completion. The fact that it’s a previously-bulk Mythic doesn’t hurt either. There’s not much risk to these right now, and chances are you can trade them off to EDH players if they don’t pan out.

We’re going to move into more speculative ground now, with a few lists that aren’t quite there, but do present some opportunity if they accomplish something. To clarify, I’m not advocating making any move based on the following, but I wanted to give you the information.

The first is a Pyrcomancer Ascension list championed by Mike Flores that uses Archive Trap as a win condition. Obviously there’s going to be a jump on the Traps if the list does well, and they jumped 80 percent on MTGO after he posted the list.

The next list I have for you comes from the Magic hotbed of Nova Scotia, Canada (I reserve the right to make fun of Canada at any time since I am half-Canadian). If you want to find some bulk rares to speculate on, here’s your list. Beastmaster Ascension and Conquerers Pledge aren’t the most sexy cards, but there’s a Top 8 list if you’re feeling bold. Disclaimer: I have no idea how many people showed up for the tournament it Top 8’ed.

I hope you found this look at States useful. I’ll be back next week with a (belated) submitted trade when midterms stop kicking my ass and I can sleep for more than three hours a night!

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

3 thoughts on “The Revenue Review – Breaking down States

  1. +1 for the Star Wars reference

    Out of all the cards you mentioned, I feel pretty strongly that Mimic Vat will be on the rise throughout the block. Depending on what comes in MBS and 'Action', I can totally see it being right alongside Ratchet Bomb in price. Granted, I'm new to speculation, but I just think this card will be broken in half before the end.

    I was a bit sad I wasn't able to go to States, I'm sure it was quite fun. Can't wait to get home from work to where I can pour over those decklists (they are, sadly, blocked here)

    Nice article

    1. One very important thing you must remember with speculation is not only how many people will want a card, but how many of that card they will want. A perfect example of this factor is Gideon Jura. Nobody played 4 of him, and that affected his price. This effect is even stronger in regards to Rares. In most decklists I've seen it in, Mimic Vat is usually at 2 copies.

      Ratchet Bomb is also relevant to older formats, while Mimic Vat is not. However, Mimic Vat probably has more casual appeal, so that balances things out.

      Because Mimic Vat is usually limited in its appearance, I would say it should balance at $5. That's much better than the bulk rate it still has in a lot of places. Pick them up if you see them on the cheap, but don't go overboard since few people will want a full set.

      The biggest steal right now is Lux Cannon. I see that at $7-10, although not immediately. Pick it up at mythic bulk rate if you can. Chapin thinks the card is strong in the right decks, and that can have a big impact on a card's value, even if he's wrong. Also, the decks it's in are new and exciting.

      Nice article, Corbin.

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