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Are the Prices of Mythics Going to Drop?

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Since the release of Worldwake the debate has raged on over whether or not mythic rares were hurting Magic or not. While people had complained about the price of Baneslayer Angel it wasn't until the price of Jace, the Mind Sculptor rose through the roof that the argument against mythics began to look more attractive. Since then the average price of mythics has risen. Is this due to the power level of these cards or because of Jace?

If we look at Scars of Mirrodin mythics, specifically the planeswalkers, we see that all of them were running around $50 at release. Since then they have all dropped in price, and not just because they are less scarce now that the set has been opened up in much greater quantities (though this does have some impact). The reason that I believe they have dropped is that they were overpriced from the start. Elspeth Tirel and Venser, the Sojourner see almost no play in competitive Standard. Koth of the Hammer does but only in a few decks.

With the exception of Jace all the other high priced mythics have dropped in price. Is this because their prices were inflated due to Jace? Now of course some mythics have risen in price as they found homes in decks, but this is true of any card. Even at its highest Frost Titan didn't break $20.

Unless Wizards releases another mythic with the power level of Jace I think we may see the price of mythics drop on average from what they have been since the release of Worldwake. Primeval Titan, Vengevine, and perhaps Koth are probably the only three mythics released since Jace that feel powerful enough to be worth $30 or more. If Survival decks get banned from Legacy in the future then even Vengevine (which honestly has no mythic feel whatsoever) will probably drop significantly.

If the pre-sale prices of Mirrodin Beseiged mythics are as high as they were for Scars I would almost blindly suggest trading them away at the pre-release. Of course this depends on what cards they actually print but ever since Jace they have not released a card that can hold a $50 price tag. Assuming that the price of future mythics does drop, as I suspect they will, what will this do for the prices of current mythics?

This is an interesting question because it could give us an opportunity to make some money with cards we currently have. To be completely honest I'm not sure whether or not it will have any effect on the current prices. We still have a long time until the next set is released and I think the prices will have stabilized on their own by then.

Still this is an idea that is worth discussion because if the price of mythics is going to start dropping for future sets we stand to gain a lot by being aware of this trend before others and getting rid of cards before the prices begin to decline.

I'd like to hear what you think. Do you think that the price of future mythics will be lower, the same, or even higher than they are now? What if another Jace-like card gets printed?

One other topic that I recently discussed has to do with proxy cards. I picked up a couple of proxy power cards about a week ago. I first saw them on eBay but didn't feel they were worth buying. Someone had seven of them at FNM which I traded for at $2 each. They were pretty decent foil proxies of a Black Lotus, Time Vault and a bunch of other older expensive cards.

Is there anything wrong with trading cards like these as long as you make sure the other person is aware they are proxies? I've heard good arguments for and against them and I'm just curious what you think about them. Join me next week when I talk more about collecting and how to use trading to maximize your collection with a minimum of cost.

20 thoughts on “Are the Prices of Mythics Going to Drop?

  1. I see nothing wrong with the trading of proxies as long as it's clear that they are proxies. In many vintage tournaments proxies are legal to play with and I don't see it any different than people having altered art cards. Some people like having their cards look fancy as opposed to Mox Ruby written on a mountain.

  2. I think the SOM has been very good in sense of mythics. There are lots of potential and "good" mythics. That of course lowers the top price as you get value from mythics in general not only from one hype mythic. This is how the mythics should be done. If there are more sets like SOM in mythic-wise the pre-order prices will get lower. That's my guess.

  3. My guess is that Mirrodin Besieged will see one Planeswalker near Jace power level, as a mean to sell the second set by the bucketload.

    This will refuel the Mythic rage, as nobody wants to miss the "next Jace".

  4. I personally think mythics were a bad idea only in the fact that some are significantly better than every other rarity. I understand why they are mythic and that mythics should be powerful. BUT! this is really not good for us when they print sets that have no value except for about 3 mythic cards. If we look back at the past few sets we can see that they at least finally got the idea that "Hmmm, maybe we should print more than one chance rare."

    Zendikar- 0 Chase mythics, 5 Fetch lands

    Worldwake- 1.5 Chase mythics (I really don’t value persecutor as a chase mythic since only one deck uses it), 5 Man lands

    Rise of Eldrazi- 1.5 Chase mythics (Vengevine and Gideon, but Gideon continues to go down in price significantly), No chase rares

    M11- 2 Chase mythics (Primeval Titan, and now Frost Titan which replaced BSA), only a handful of chase rares such as Fauna shaman

    Scars of Mirrodin- 5 (The three planeswalkers, mox, masticore), only ratchet bomb for chase rare

    I believe that they continue to print more mythics that are mediocre which makes the price go down. Although it’s a change to see more “chase mythics” in sets because I’m a firm believer that no one piece of thin cardboard should equate to an 80 dollar bill. I think that mythics can only go down in price. If they print another card at the same power level as jace it is more likely that-that card will drive the value of jace down *unless it is a card that can be used in jace decks* which would make the value rise to about 50 *like Elspeth did*. I think it’s about an 80-20% chance that mythics will drop in value unless they start printing cards that are worth their price tag which most aren’t.

    1. I don't know if you just don't know or purposefully forgot cards from your lists. Here is a list of call Rares/Mythics that are over $5 right now, which qualifies those as "chase rares." Really? 0 Mythics in Zendikar? Are you even trying?

      Zendikar

      Rares: 5 Fetchlands

      Mythics: Eldrazi Monument, Iona, Lotus Cobra, Sorin Markov, Nissa Revane

      Worldwake:

      Rares: Stoneforge Mystic

      Mythics: Jace, Avenger of Zendikar, Abyssal Persecutor,

      Rise of Eldrazi:

      Rares: Eldrazi Temple

      Mythics: All is Dust, Emrakul, Ulamog, Kozilek, Vengevine, Gideon Jura, Kargan Dragonlord, Linvala, Sarkhan the Mad

      M11:

      Rares: Fauna Shaman

      Mythics: BSA, Garruk, Frost Titan, Grave Titan, Primeval Titan, Gaea's Revenge, Jace Beleren

      Scars:

      Rares: Mimic Vat, Ratchet Bomb

      Mythics: Elspeth, Koth, Venser, Mox Opal, Molten-Tail Masticore, Wurmcoil Engine, Skithiryx, Sword of Body and Mind

      1. I understand some of the other cards you added to the lists.

        I can see the 15 dollar mythics such as eldrazi monument and all is dust as chase rares because you can sell them for 5 bucks or trade them to people who play casually. But the line is kinda iffy.

        But to be more specific I was talking about cards with large value and basically only comparing to cards like jace and primeval titan to prove that mythics are going down. Almost every mythic card you have named *in addition to mine* has gone down in price significantly with the change in the format.

        I PERSONALLY have a very very strict definition as to what a chase rare/mythic is. I will admit I forgot about Lotus Cobra, Eldrazi Monument, and All is Dust. But beyond those I!!! do not find a 5 dollar card a chase rare, specifically because it only just barely paid for my booster that I got it in. I consider a Chase rare/mythic not something that sells for a lot, but something that can be sold BACK for a lot. Linvala, Sword, Garruk, Sarkhan, KDL, Sorin, and Nissa, you'd be lucky to get 3 bucks cash for each of those, I am not sure about you, but I don't consider that chase mythic. Now this is because I deal with local stores and not SCG as much but even so. I define a chase rare to be over 10 dollars and can be sold to a store for 6 dollars, and I consider a chase mythic something over 20 or 25 dollars that can be sold back for 15 dollars.

        This is just my opinion but Mythics like Elspeth, Venser, Gideon, BSA, and other 20 dollar mythics I do not really consider them chase mythics because their value is in rapid decline which for me makes them not a chase mythic cause no store wants them. As for the chase rares, they are also in decline except for the fetch lands, Ratchet bomb is down from 12 to 8 right now and can be sold to a store for 2.5 to 3 dollars and mimic vat is still only 5 bucks and can be sold for 2.5. But as for SF Mystic and Eldrazi temple they are less than 5 dollars and cen be sold back for 2 bucks.

        I hope you understand the arguement I am making. This is not to say that ANY of these cards are bad, this is just my opinion of the value of the cards as I see *Which if it weren't obvious enough* is the trade back value or cash value. I think chase rares and mythics are peoples personal preferences. I know some people who define chase rares at 5 bucks and chase mythics at anything above 5 bucks retail. But that's just not me. I see the value in all these resold cards that are 3 and 5 bucks cash but for me chase rares and mythics they are not. Chase rares and mythics are the main reasons we buy the packs. We don't buy packs of say RoE to get Eldrazi temples we get them to Vengevines.

        1. You must be one of the dudes that Whinston trades with! hahaha

          I suggest you find an alternative way to liquidate your cards. Between online buyslists and Ebay I have been able to extract significant cash value from the cards you deride.

  5. I don't think the price of mythics will change very much for quite a while for a couple of reasons:

    1) Card stores set the price before the cards even come out and they have no reason to set prices lower than they currently are.

    2) Players want to be the first on their block to have the new expensive cards.

    People can continue to complain about pricing all they want but as long as they continue to buy into the hype of "the next Jace!!!" there will be no real change.

    1. "1) Card stores set the price before the cards even come out and they have no reason to set prices lower than they currently are."

      $200 is a lot to pay for a playset of a Standard card. The only reason I think people pay so much is that they don't want to pay $300 for it later on. As we get further from Jace (barring another Jace-level mythic) people will be more hesitant to spend as much, preferring to wait until the price drops or acquire them through other means. While card stores do set initial prices players have the ultimate say in how much a card costs.

      At $35 more people would feel comfortable pre-ordering a card even if the price might drop because having it as soon as the set is released has its benefits that might be worth more to some people than the difference in price say, two weeks later. With Scars I remember watching Starcity set prices on cards at $35 then raising the price to $50 because they were getting so many orders.

      At $50 I'm sure their orders slowed down but I'm also sure people jumped to pick them up thinking that whatever card they were buying could be the next Jace and $50 seemed like a good price then.

      Eventually I think people will start to become more wary of $50 price tags because those prices don't pan out and the dealers will keep their prices a bit lower because of it.

      Of course I could be wrong and people may just continue to buy cards at inflated prices in the hopes of saving some money when the next Jace comes. As a trader part of me wants this to happen so I can move these cards early but as a player and collector I feel that a price drop would be healthy for the game.

      On an unrelated note…wth is up with WotC these days. They must really hate independent TOs now. First they make it so TOs can't sanction any type of higher level event and now they get rid of the MPR system!? I just had about 10 people sign up for their DCI card because I showed them the MPR system. They have no interest in going to stores and playing in competitive events but they wanted me to sanction their events so they could start getting rewards cards. This would probably have led them to play more and even eventually given some of them incentive to move to a store and play because they wanted more promos. I'm not really sure I'll ever understand Wizards thinking on this. WotC…C'mon Man!

      1. In my original post I should have been more clear. I believe that high end mythics will, for a long time to come, start out at the $35 to $40 "sweet spot" that recent cards have come out at (Mox, Koth, Elspeth and Venser were all there before Scars was released) and I agree that anything above that is more than the market can support for extended periods. Most of the cards that come out at the price point will drop to mid level pricing ($10 to $25) as hype dies down and decklists are created of course but in my opinion this scenario doesn't equal a drop in overall mythic pricing and will not create an overall drop in pricing any time soon.

        1. People like that are exactly why they stopped giving rewards cards — they don't have to buy any new cards to stay competitive, they don't have to buy product for limited events — they can just keep playing each other with their Ice Age starter decks and get promo cards for absolutely free. And these are the guys that follow the rules. The shady people just sanction events that don't occur. Do you understand now?

          1. I disagree with the above. I feel the opposite, actually. The MPR cards were a great tool to get new players into stores, playing in events and thinking about their decks. You don;t just "get" points for nothing… you have to show up and play. On top of that, FNM's have to be standard events (not sure if drafts count), so to even PLAY in an FNM to get points (yes, I know you can get them other ways, but FNM is frequesnt and local) you have to have a standard deck (not an ice age pre-con). As such, you'll have newer players who are now drawn to FNM's / smaller tournaments as they want to "earn" their MPR's. Who's to say that they don;t get paired up with a "fnm pro", see a deck idea they like that they wouldn;t have been exposed to at a kitchen table match, and decide to play more cometitively ie: buy cards / get involved in trading more etc.

            The MPR's were like the drop of honey that attracted the grizzly bear to the hive…

            Carl

          2. @Psilence below (can't seem to reply) — I'm not talking about people who play in real tournaments in stores – I'm replying to Matt about people getting their "own tournaments" sanctioned so they can get cards. Also, yes, FNM can be draft.

          3. Most of the people on the MPR were probably players who attend FNMs, prereleases, etc though. Sure some people were shady about it but those people shouldn't be able to spoil it for the rest of us. People are always going to cheat but I believe that most people are honest.

            This will also hurt the people who aren't very good at Magic. I can't remember the last time I didn't at least get my entry fee back at FNM but there are plenty of players who basically pay $5 to give the better players packs every week. There is much less incentive for them to show up if they aren't going to at least get the MPR stuff.

            Finally I think that the people who play amongst themselves and sanction the events for player rewards actually help stores out more than they hurt them. I doubt these players will be going to a store to play but by having competitive events, even if it is just amongst themselves, they will have more incentive to buy cards. Everybody likes to win. Once you add some level of organized competition people will want to invest more time and energy into winning, even though it may only be for bragging rights. These people will then purchase cards to improve their decks. Or maybe they won't but if not it does no harm to the stores they weren't spending money at anyway.

  6. People basically have to wake up and realize that the set isn't worth 5x the cost of boxes when it first gets spoiled. They will start waiting for prices to go down and that will cause stores to open with lower pre-sale prices.

    The only thing I think can change this is if "New chase mythic Tezz 2.0" gets printed. Then we'll start another bubble cycle.

    Personally I think requiring all PW to be mythic AND making PW so strong in the current environment skews them into higher prices.

    Every time the "set value" is up enterprizing people start talking about selling cards for a living, and opening game stores et et. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys are VERY fly by night. They'll do 1-2 pre-sale auctions on eBay and find out how much work it takes to stay in the game. Many of them will still loose money and as set prices cool they go away.

    1. "People basically have to wake up and realize that the set isn’t worth 5x the cost of boxes when it first gets spoiled. They will start waiting for prices to go down and that will cause stores to open with lower pre-sale prices."

      I agree with you. The only flaw in this logic is that people have to actually wake up and realize that point and I don't think they will. There are not enough people that are willing to wait for price to come down and that means that prices are unlikely to drop any faster than they currently do.

      It's a lot like the economy on my World of Warcraft server. You can log on at any point in the day and in the main city chat you will hear the argument that prices are too high for X item and how mad people are about it. If you then log on a month later the price will, in most cases, be the same even after people are told just not to buy the item so that the price will eventually come down.

      We currently live in an instant gratification society where people don't want to wait for things. The cost of waiting on the card to drop $10 or $15 doesn't outway the fact that they'd enjoy having the card right now (opportunity cost I think it's called in economics).

      The want for things to change and the willingness to change them are two different things and unfortunately humans have a tendency to do one and not the other.

  7. It's always a good idea to sell/trade for the opening prices at pre-release weekend. The set just came out. It's all hype. It's not until people start using them in decks and realize their actual potential, then stores realize they're not unloading their copies and begin to lower the prices each week until they hit the sweet spot people are willing to pay. Sets will always devalue following prerelease because the supply eventually starts meeting enough demand and it's prerelease weekend where you get the most bang for your buck trading the money mythics you may pull.

    Everyone worries the next jace will come along where it skyrockets even above its demand at prereleases and want to ride the gravy train before its rolling. It's really just a gamble and play on instant gratification.

    I don't think any card is out of reach with my trade/buying power in the game aside from power and high vintage staples (Libraries, Bazaars, Time Vaults, Imperial Seals) on any given week. By not letting yourself get psyched out on potential money cards you don't get caught up in the mythic lottery and usually stuff comes to you anyway. I could get a playset of 40 duals in only a few months if i wanted to buy them, so why should i worry about the next set's mythics? I can pick them up when they start to stablize in the market. Worst case sceario we get a new jace, i'll accept the fact I didn't buy them while cheap and move on.

    As for the factors with jace. He was in a set only opened for 2-3 months in drafts, the set is already out of print and impossible to find. Scars on the other hand will be opened for the rest of the year in drafts and widely available. If any cards really hit the higher end we might see some chases in Besieged or with the 3rd set more than scars itself. Timing is everything. Scars is being opened 3 at a time until february, then 2 at a time until most likely april/may, then 1 at a time until the summer. Besieged will be opened 1 at a time for less than half the year, and the 3rd set even smaller, so there's more likely cards to get higher amounts from those sets than koth or any mythics from scars unless a future card or set supports them a ton. If anything, the rares in SOM have more potential to skyrocket with the next sets like Etched Champion or Skithiryx. Only time will tell.

  8. The only way I see the price of 'chase' mythics going down is if Magic starts to loose its current popularity, which I don't want to see. For the time being, the company, the game, and the community are thriving. Although we, as customers want the cards to cost less, until we stop buying the product from both Wizards and the secondary markets, the cost will not go down. Period.

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