menu

Insider: Fetchlands in Modern

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

So when I was mentally planning this article, I was going to show this pic...

...and say, "Did you all see this?"

But I Didn't Do That Exactly

Because of course you did. Who pays for a QS subscription then throws their phone into a lake during the PAX spoilers? People whose families made them go camping over Labor Day weekend* I guess. Still, by now you're aware. And you're probably happy as balls about this development. I realize it looks like a photoshop, but it's true--we're getting Onslaught fetches in Khans, because why wouldn't they reprint them right after printing painlands?

I guess the conversation went something like this:

Guy #1 - Boss! Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn are $100 at the Legacy GP! What do we do?

Guy #2 - It's simple. We reprint Bloodstained Mire.

Guy#1 - These are great ideas are why you're in charge of MODO implementation!

All (some of) jokes aside, the Onslaught fetches are a welcome addition to a Standard format that is getting three-color wedges to build around. Standard has been written about a ton, and until we get a full spoiler I'm not inclined to post a ton about the impact of the fetches on that format.

This reduces the need for Mana Confluence to an extent that a potato cannon fired at an Abrams tank is an apt comparison to the effect it will have on Confluence's soaring price. That's not to say not at all, but three-color decks will want Confluence even with the ability to fetch for the basic you need.

People will also shuffle a lot, and if you weren't around for Zendikar block, it's a pain, especially if you're playing against a guy who won't let you resolve two fetches at once, preferring to make you sufficiently randomize and present the deck to him for a cut before you can search for a second land. You're about to find out who at your LGS is a dickhead in the first FNM.

Who Cares About Standard Right Now?

That's what I was basically driving at. We're going to get new decks, and the fetches will help those new decks. I could speculate on the likelihood of Zendikar fetches being reprinted in this block, but I don't want to even go on record. It's a "lose-don't win scenario" wherein people will make a huge deal out of it if I guess wrong (I guess the "experts" aren't quite as good at this as they think) and if I'm right, I get a bunch of "Duh, everyone knew that would happen".

No thanks. I don't have enough evidence, and I don't think there is anything actionable to do to benefit from guessing right anyway, besides selling your Zen fetches to buy them cheaper later, and if you didn't sell them when Misty Rainforest was $100, you lost more value not doing that than you'll likely make up by selling now for $35 on the buylist.

So let's talk about Khanslaught fetches, not Zendikar fetches.

Instead of talking about Standard, let's talk about the format where they've never been legal.

[Insert "Modern" Pun Here]

Khanslaught fetches have never been legal in Modern. Relatively new as far as formats go, Modern has enjoyed Zendikar fetches and shocks, but Blood Moon has pulled pants down for quite a while. When Mono-Blue starts running Blood Moon, you know a card is good in a format.

Some decks could avoid getting pantsed by Blood Moon better than others, and a non-trivial part of that was their ability to use a fetchland to fetch a relevant basic land. If a UWR control deck drew an Arid Mesa or Scalding Tarn, they were in good shape. If a Jund deck drew Misty Rainforest, they might not be in such good shape. Still, was a Jund deck that drew a Misty better or worse off than an UWR deck that needed an Island and drew a Mesa? Will more fetches really be the panacea Modern needs?

I actually think they will have quite an effect on the format vis-a-vis Blood Moon and a non-trivial part of that will simply be the fact that decks are going to run more basics. Jund didn't have a great way to tutor for Mountain and now it has two. Granted, Misty Rainforest doesn't need to tutor for a Mountain to bail you out against Blood Moon.

We could go into how much getting increased access to a splash color helps the best decks in the format. I don't really want to spend a ton of time on that. Do we need to devote ink to how much Flooded Strand is going to make UWR marginally better? Is there money to be made anticipating the best decks staying good? I'd rather spend some time talking about improvements to decks that aren't as good.

U/B Mill

UB mill

U/B mill is a bit of a non-deck that has a bit of a wonky manabase. The introduction of Polluted Delta to Modern could really have a positive effect on the consistency of the deck.

It's not top-eighting GPs or winning dailies, but it's the kind of deck casuals want to play with, and if the manabase can be made a bit more consistent for cheap, there is a chance someone on the fence about Modern could jump in. A bad deck getting better can be just as important as a good deck getting better, especially if there are cheap cards in the deck.

This deck isn't performing all that well despite being a ton of fun to play, and improvements to this deck's own manabase aren't the only thing it will have going for it post-Khans. More fetches for everyone means more fetching in general. Sure, you can get an Island for that Turn 1 Thought Scour, but your opponent has Polluted Delta for that Turn 1 Sleight of Hand and you can be ready to pulls his pants down with Archive Trap. Splash damage doesn't always have to be a bad thing.

Actionables

I might keep an eye on Archive Trap. It's a brutal card and more fetching could make it spike if it catches on. Honestly, mill cards are never a bad investment--even mill cards that were bad when they were legal in Standard are good places to sock your money. Modern Masters 2 could be an issue but I literally can't keep mill cards in my case at the LGS.

Archive Trap is going to climb steadily--unless it spikes sharply. I like it as a no-risk pickup with high upside. Trap could potentially get jammed in boards for the control mirror, also like it has been in Standard formats past. Still, the card will climb even if none of that happens. The best part? Traders undervalue Archive Trap.

Zoo

zoo

Zoo is pretty good, but it's underrepresented in the format. The unbanning of Wild Nacatl is relatively recent but there have been plenty of events since then and old Zoo adherents are looking forward to more chances to get there. An increase in Zoo adoption is one of the reasons Goblin Guide has increased in price a bit lately (although not the primary driver).

Getting both Windswept Heath and Wooded Foothills is solid for the deck. Not only that, in a world with more fetches, decks that can use Aven Mindcensor as more than just a sideboard hoser (attacking with a flier with flash is a decent way to kill them with dudes, which is Zoo's mandate) are set up to benefit.

Actionables

Mindcenser costs so much money already. If there is a Modern Masters 2 with no Mindcensor, I'm going to really start questioning Wizards' ability to pay attention to what we need as players. Of course, Mindcensor could go up short-term. Still, I'm not buying in at $12 hoping to make $2 with a reprint seeming so likely.

However, there is an underpriced card that I think will benefit from Zoo getting more and better fetches. Have you spotted it? Knight of the Reliquary. Knight is great in a deck that runs fetches and I think it gets better when your fetches are better. You can jam even more than before plus run fewer shocks and more basics. Wild Nacatl improves non-trivially in a world with fetches as well, but I feel like he's overpriced to the same extent that Knight of the Reliquary is underpriced.

Not only in Zoo, you could see Knight get there in another shell. I imagine that other shell will involved Lotus Cobra. Cobra is bugnutty and underplayed right now. Some financiers called Cobra on twitter a while back but it's been solidly $6 +/- $1 for quite a while. Better fetches could be what a cobra deck wants. I see potential upside to Cobra, and $6 for a Modern-playable mythic would not be close to correct, especially given how much Goblin Guide is, being a non-mythic from the same set, albeit one getting played a lot more.

Could Eldrazi Conscription get there buoyed by Windswept Heath and Flooded Strand? Hard to say, but either way, you'll want Knight of the Reliquary, and the Knights vs. Dragons foil is bafflingly cheap. I imagine if this gets more play, the Modern Masters reprint won't attenuate the price as much as it is doing now. This is demonstrably a $10 card, even with extra copies. Being a four-of in the decks that will want it help its case a lot.

Esper/Grixis Control

I couldn't even find a list for this because it's so not a deck.

Control decks are all basically UWR right now. Is it because you have Snapcaster Mage, Restoration Angel and Lightning Bolt and who needs cards that aren't those cards? Is it because the deck enjoys the consistency afforded it by the availability of both Scalding Tarn and Arid Mesa and the unavailability of Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta?

We're about to find out. Esper Control could become a thing, and cards that go in Esper Control would thus be things. What are they? I don't know, it's not a deck. If I had to point to cards that would go in an Esper list that aren't being played in control currently I would say Creeping Tar Pit, Esper Charm and Baneslayer Angel are the cards I'd point to. Inquisition of Kozilek and Thoughtseize could see more play than they do now, but we're looking at cards seeing next to no play.

Grixis gets Bloodstained Mire and Polluted Delta, which is very good. This, however, doesn't really help the deck cast Cruel Ultimatum and Cryptic Command if that's what it wants to do. I am less bullish on Grixis, unless it resembled some of the Bitterblossom-based Grixis decks we've seen.

With 'Blossom, you'll want to take less damage from your mana, not more, but getting untapped basics over fetches should mitigate the extra fetching you do. Creeping Tar Pit gets jammed in this deck.

Actionables

Really, Celestial Colonnade is the manland being run in Modern right now. Polluted Delta could make a few more blue-black decks happen, and if those are control decks, Tar Pit likely gets jammed.

Look at Celestial Colonnade's price and look how much cheaper Tar Pit is right now. It's 60% of the price of Colonnade with no justification for it current price. Imagine it gets played more--it could easily enjoy the $18ish Colonnade is enjoying right now. Modern Masters 2 looms, but the last time Modern Masters printed a cycle of lands, they had the word "vivid" in them. I think Tar Pit has upside, though buying in north of $10 always sucks for such a recent non-mythic with no real results.

Faeries

I hate Faeries. That said, their mana base could improve.

fae

Faeries is a reason to run Mutavault in Modern, and without a higher degree of adoption in Modern, Mutavault will likely drop quite a bit in the next few weeks. This is another chance for Tar Pit to see as much play as Colonnade, which is good.

Again, fetching for a Swamp kind of sucks in a Cryptic Command deck, but making sure you get black for early Bitterblossom and play untapped lands your first few turns is paramount in a deck like this. You could jam a swamp or two which would give you black mana if they Moon you, which happens.

Actionables

Not a ton here, other than Tar Pit which we already discussed. Mistbind Clique is a card that hype had made $25 and reality has made $9. That's a high buy-in, but Faeries proving itself could make the card approach $15-$20 if hype is to be believed. However, that was $25 at the same time Bitterblossom was $75 and those prices are demonstrably farcical.

Dark Horses

Lots of very good decks are about to get better mana. Pod decks having Heath and/or Foothills are excited. UWR Control gets Strand, Tarmotwin and its goofy manabase gets Foothills and Jund gets Mire and Foothills, because why not? Still, there isn't a ton of money to be made on 1:1 bets. I'm betting on dark horses because I don't think better manabases is going to make cards that are suddenly easier to cast go down in price.

What do you think? Got a few safe calls based on the new fetches? Leave them in the comments section and I'll watch you argue with each other.

Until next week!

 

*For our non-American readers, Labor Day is a celebration of the basic rights the labor unions got for workers in this country like five-day work weeks and the right not to work in textile factories with padlocks on the fire exits. Every Summer we take a Monday off of work to thank the unions before going back to blaming them for the country's economic decline. It's a nice tradition and you get to sleep in on a Monday.

5 thoughts on “Insider: Fetchlands in Modern

  1. I actually played against an ESPER deck last night in the modern daily…he was 2-0 at the time I played cause I was 2-0…it was tough mathup and that charm sure did do some work. Pretty sure the only reason I won was based on his mana base, and him not being able to get the colors he needed when he needed them. Jason, thanks for the article as always.

    1. Yeah, Esper wants double blue, triple blue sometimes, it wants double white, it wants UWB, it wants to hit every land drop – it\’s a tough manabase. Getting Strand and Delta is going to be a boost to the deck for sure. It will still need a ton of dual-colored lands, but running enough basics to make sure they get their colors will be huge. Marsh Flats alone wasn\’t cutting it, and it didn\’t help them get blue. Good job beating him, though!

      1. Esper in Modern seems positioned in much the same way it was in INN-RTR standard. It beats other control pretty well but flounders against the rest of the meta. A deck that runs and hits both Collonade and Tar Pit will beat a deck that runs one or the other the vast majority of the time.

  2. My opinion: this article is A++. I didn’t think critically about Fetches in Modern reducing the strain on the life totals of three-color players, and that and the “Actionables” section have given me a new perspective to think from in regards to the fetches in Modern. Thanks!

Join the conversation

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation