It’s an exciting time in Magic finance, as the spring always is. Prices seem to do well in this time period, we have an evolving Standard format, we just came off a Modern Pro Tour, and there’s a ton of unreleased (and unspoiled) product to look forward to and speculate on. On top of all of that, we have moves being made by major market players that will likely shake things up.

So how do we best approach this? I’m most interested in looking at this from a macro, thousand-foot-view perspective, and today I want to weigh in on some subjects doing that.

‘Ware the Tax Man

Or not?

At this point it’s not just a weird maybe, maybe-not trend, it’s a fact. Prices historically rise in the spring, and it’s happening again this year.

The question, of course, is why? I think there are many factors involved, not the least of which is that with the holidays over and the snow and cold here to stay, people are staying indoors. And when you don’t have family driving you crazy to be indoors with, what do you do? You play Magic.

I think this is a somewhat universal truth (except, of course, in the southern hemisphere, perhaps?). But I also think there’s more to it.

I think the biggest factor is tax returns. Sure, people aren’t saddled with holidays bills—and that means a lot—but even more than that they’re getting those sweet, sweet tax returns back. People are notoriously bad at actually saving money for purchases, but tax returns? That’s found money! Sure, I’d love to buy that playset of Snapcaster Mages!

I realize this particular effect may be localized to the American market, but everything is connected. This is the period we see the blue-chip staples, like the duals Sig mentioned on Monday, take their annual rise. Sure, they’ll likely fall off some in the fall and winter, but they won’t drop back to point zero, and we’ll be right back here again a year from now, only with a higher starting point.

This holds true throughout, and the gains we’re seeing in Modern pieces that didn’t spike with the Pro Tour reinforce that.

Casual Still Rules

Even more than that, we’re seeing gains in the casual cards that don’t always make it on everyone’s radars but nonetheless rise. Remember when Magic 2015 came out we talked about how Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth would bottom out, but almost surely begin a steady rise after that, given its pedigree?

It’s happened, and the M15 version has almost doubled up. I still don’t think it’s a bad pickup at $7-8 in trade (and will be huge on my rotation list), but the point is this was easy to see coming. Other predictable recent cards like Crucible of Fire and Liliana Vess are making the same moves.

These things can be and are predicted, and they never fail to come through. Gilded Lotus has three printings but is on a tear on TCGPlayer. Keep your eye out on the forums (and this column, as it’s time I revisted casual favorites again), and you won’t miss the easy money.

Tiny Leaders Cannot be Ignored

I admit I wasn’t the first person on this train, and damned if I’ll be the last. While no one in my local area has shown any interest in this, numbers don’t lie. It’s no longer just the random foils that are being bought out across the internet, it’s stuff like Champion's Helm. That’s a good enough indicator of real demand to me, and I don’t think the ride is over on this quirky format.

I’m not an expert on the format (at all), but I recognize a real trend when I see one. I’m sure there are still targets out there worth getting in on (likely non-foil) and that’s where I’ll be targeting my efforts over the next week. Hopefully next week I can come back with an educated opinion rather than just spout off a few off the top of my head right now without great research.

Ah, what the hell. Order of Whiteclay foils have been bought out, and the original is under a buck still. Card seems great in the format.

TCGPlayer Goes Foreign

I posed this question to a random group last week: what do you do when you have an old, random foreign card worth $3-5? Buylists don’t want it, I can’t put it in the store binder because no one could read it, and it’s not a competitively-played card so no one knows what it does (I don’t remember exactly what it was, but some like $3 black card from a Portal set, not that it’s relevant to the discussion).

It feels bad to throw that thing in the bulk pile, but I know if I hold onto it it’s going nowhere. So what do we do with it?

The answer came to us just a few days later as TCGPlayer dropped the bomb: You can now buy and sell foreign cards on the site!

This is a big move. Not only will it gives players a non-eBay route to pick up or move these cards, but it finally gives dealers a real reason to buy them. This is a great boon for those of who move most of our stuff through buylist, and it’s a good development all around. Prices that had been all over the place (think Russian foil anything-playable) will now have a real baseline to work from. That’s a big deal.

Even more of a big deal is the fact that the way most retailers work (through Crystal Commerce), this inventory will be listed as a function of a multiplier of the original card. While this won’t fly for many cards with huge disparities, for some more run-of-the-mill stuff (think non-foil Japanese Lingering Souls or something) we’re going to see a real baseline being set, since so many foreign cards will exist right at that multiplier that will be uniform across a dealer’s selections.

Bottom line? Demand for foreign cards will rise slightly, and prices will be easier to track. That’s a big deal.

…

What do you guys think? It’s been a busy 2015 already, and I tried to round things up as best I could. Anything important I missed?

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler 88 on Twitter