menu

Insider: Recapping PT Origins – Moving Towards October

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hey everyone!

Welcome back. I’m here to present to you yet another brilliant set of words to feast your eyes on. A ton of stuff happened since the last time I’ve talked to you all, and I apologize. I did however sit behind the scenes and bring you Pro Tour coverage, working with Kelly to give you all the best information via Insider Alerts from sources I locked down on the floor.

So, shout out to everyone on the team that covered the PT, and I think we did a fantastic job. Hope you all did too. So while you haven’t read my words, I hope you all felt my presence through the very informative alerts and coverage!

To recap briefly: we all know that Abbot of Keral Keep and Demonic Pact were the frontrunners of the Pro Tour. I want to take this time to shout out to the QS Insider forums and our analysis of Abbot since the pre-order period. We really knocked it out of the park and it’s a real testament to good card evaluation.

It’s discussions like these that really enable us to purchase cards well before they end up doing well at tournaments and spiking. At 3$ and under I’m sure many of you reaped some good returns at this point. Congrats!

This was the decklist that won the tournament, making back-to-back Pro Tours spiked by Mono-Red.

I’m an aggressive player at heart, and I really just have to say I love this “new age” red list. Red has never had this type of pseudo-card advantage in the form of cards like Abbot of Keral Keep and Outpost Siege.

It’s really so refreshing to me to play this deck these days and it's actually as insanely potent than it’s ever been. Sure, we don’t have all-stars like Lightning Bolt or Hellrider but the deck has plenty of reach. It’s really a testament to how powerful a card like Outpost Siege is when a sure loss can start making the opponent bite their nails to close out the game and actually almost lose.

That was a great match to watch during the PT, right? I loved it.

Now, when evaluating these decklists (and every other Pro Tour) the Top 8 doesn’t always tell the story of what to expect going forward. While what ends up making the Top 8 does make a difference (look to MODO for what happened to Demonic Pact) there’s still plenty of opportunity with decklists that didn’t make Top 8. You have to remember that sometimes a bad draft can keep out a player like Brian Kibler, who went 9-1 during the Standard portion. These split format events are a little tricky to track in that regard, but luckily the coverage crew was able to relay that to everyone. So, be sure to look at Doug’s article about how we covered Pro Tour.

Now, let’s get down to the finance stuff shall we?

What follows is a list of picks I put together as I evaluated the Pro Tour lists, along with a few recent MODO dailies as well. It’s always good to check these events post-Pro Tour to get a sense of what is “sticking” in the metagame. Now, unfortunately some of these archetypes won’t really survive that well come October, and even existing decklists might change as the landscape will be riddled with giant Eldrazi.

A deck like U/R Thopter, and subsequently its parts like Ensoul Artifact obviously won’t be making the cut in my lists. However, I wanted to list some still inexpensive cards going forward that may survive rotation along with its archetype.

Quick October Picks

There’s certainly a theme here: Fate Reforged is sort of a goldmine. It wasn't drafted nearly as much as the other sets, and is still in Standard for quite some time. The others are simply cards I have written down and listed here as cards I feel could still be underpriced.

Again, this is my opinion. I understand there are certain stipulations:

  • I know Outpost Siege has a supplemental product printing. To be fair, so did Courser of Kruphix. I know there are a ton of them out there. I still think under 1$ seems like a great pickup to me. It’s not like it’s going anywhere anytime soon and will likely still be played in Mono-Red.
  • Mantis Rider was in Khans. It was heavily opened. I do understand that. It’s still an amazing card for its cost, and it’s not like we will be opening Khans as much as we used to.
  • Don’t hate on the Citadel Siege pick! I know, it’s wonky. Fellow writer Adam Yurchick wrote about an insanely spicy “counters” list featuring this and Hardened Scales. Turns out someone was running it at the Pro Tour! Ken Yukihiro played this list. Doesn’t that look extremely fun? The best part is--most of those cards stick around! It’s almost like a Khans/Origins event deck with some small Theros splashed in. I know I’m biased here but this was the most intriguing decks to me. At .25c (or less) there’s really not that much risk. It has proven to be Constructed-viable. Hopefully that translates past October.
  • I think Silumgar's Command is actually not a gimmick to play alongside Demonic Pact. It’s honestly very good in its own right. Clearly Daniel Fournier thought it was good enough, and brought it to a 6-2 finish in Standard. This has spilled over into the MODO dailies (remember when I said to check those?) with a 4-0 finish and a few 3-1 finishes.

The rest of the cards are well-known and -documented in the Standard Constructed environment. I do try to stay away from the claim that “this card is a slam dunk at rotation,” and urge you all to be cautious about investment too. The thing is, these cards are actually powerful, and actually do see a great deal of play. A card like Underworld Cerberus, to use as my long-time example, never saw play in any capacity. Hey, neither did Desecration Demon--before things lined up for it.

I could sit here and list so many of the different cards that panned out and didn't with the “slam dunk at rotation” mantra, but I won’t, so the general “be cautious” warning will have to suffice. I did list some compelling reasoning behind all of my ranting and raving, so take it for what it’s worth. I like to think my research is beneficial, and I’m glad to share it all with you in hopes that it is for you too! That's why I’m here isn’t it?

Oh, one last thought--be sure to check out the major retailer Summer Sales. There’s also a thread about it on the forums. Be sure to contribute, there are sometimes some worthwhile buys during these sales. I’ve already taken advantage of the most recent sale.

For transparency:

40 Outpost Siege @.48c
32 Frontier Siege @.32c

Just seemed like it was too good to pass up. I understand Frontier Siege wasn't on my list, and I’m really not trying to hype it (or any other cards I list). It just happened to be on sale as well and I wanted to mitigate some of the shipping cost and add more quantity to the order. It has shown some viability in Standard before; maybe it will again once we’re looking to ramp into Eldrazi.

That’s all for now, hopefully you all benefited and profited since I wrote to you all last, and hopefully my quick list sparks even better ideas!

If you haven’t heard it already, we posted the QS Podcast - Episode 1, and you can hear Kelly, Doug, and myself talk about some of the cards I listed here. I will say again, I just think FTR is a goldmine.

So, get your pickaxes ready!

Until next time everyone.

-Chaz (@boltsnapbolt)

One thought on “Insider: Recapping PT Origins – Moving Towards October

  1. I just bought another FRF redeemable set on MTGO, and I think that I’ll keep plowing every 40tix I have into the set. I agree, it’s a freakin goldmine.

Join the conversation

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.