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Insider: High Stakes MTGO – Mar 20th to Mar 26th

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Welcome back to High Stakes MTGO!

This past week marked for me the beginning of the buying and selling waves related to the incoming rotation of Standard.

The rotation of Standard is always a crucial time for MTGO speculators with the option buy a basket of singles, a few targeted positions, foils or full sets. With so many buying opportunities this is also a good time to review and maybe sell well-performing positions in order to reinvest in positions with a better growth potential.

The buying targets won’t only be from Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) but also from the sets rotating out of Standard---Khans of Tarkir (KTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF). After prices have dropped significantly, full sets or singles from sets rotating out of Standard have proven to be a very safe investment with moderate returns in only a few months.

In my case the sales I focused on, and will keep focusing on, are singles from the Legendary Cube (PZ1) prize set along with a few Modern positions.

The vast majority of my PZ1 positions have recorded a gain of 40-100% over the past four months. I don’t think they can outperform BFZ or OGW cards in the coming months so I’m going to take my profits on one part of my portfolio and reinvest them in another part.

Here is the link to my live portfolio.

Buys This Week

BFZ;ands

In my first round of BFZ singles, unsurprisingly, I’m betting on lands. Cycles of rare lands are the easiest and most consistent tix makers you can find. They most likely won’t see prices multiplied by 10 but many of them have good chances to see their price double or triple from what I paid for them.

Actually, you could say that their price has already doubled for some since a month or two ago. I’m certainly a little bit late to the party but I'd rather be late than not here at all. Prices surged a bit after the Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) rare lands were announced. They are now back down and I’m certainly going to try to go for another round and buy the lands I haven’t yet in BFZ as well as OGW.

I also intend to buy other singles, rares and mythics. For BFZ I think prices won’t get lower and can actually only go higher as new interactions or synergies are found with cards from SOI. OGW cards on the other hand may still have some room to lower their price. For a small set opened twice as much as any other small sets before, the price of a full set of OGW is still amazingly high.

HoBL

This is nothing else but a random bulk spec. Champions of Kamigawa flashback drafts are done and lowered the price of that legendary land to the ground. I think this card has a unique enough effect that it may deserve a spike sometimes in the future if conditions align. I can’t really lose anything here and the reward, although hypothetical, can be very high.

Sales This Week

PZ1 packs

The price of these unique boosters was getting really high compared to the price I paid to acquire them. It was time to let part of my stock go, which may have directly or indirectly caused the price of these boosters to drop from 3 tix to 2.6 tix last week.

Legendary Cube returns this week but the Legendary Cube Prize packs won't be awarded. I would then expect the PZ1 packs to resume their slow upward trend.

However this is a reminder that the PZ1 packs can return any time, which would certainly cause their price to decline more permanently and dramatically. I'm likely to sell the rest of stockpile very soon especially if buying prices return to the neighborhood of 2.7-2.8 tix.

Following a fluctuating upward trend initiated last December, Phantasmal Image crossed the 3 tix bar about a week ago. The spread on this card has always been large but this time around I had the opportunity to liquidate my copies at ~2.5 tix, a little bit higher than my target price, so no reason to skip this sale.

This is the illustration of what I was saying in the introduction of this article. I'm in the process of moving out most, if not all, of my PZ1 singles. All of them have shown positive results and I want to exit now in order to reinvest in buying opportunities linked to the incoming Standard rotation.

I don't think these guys can safely grow by 50% or more in the next three to six months, unlike the positions I'm about to buy. The Legendrary Cube singles or prize pack specs turned out to be extremely successful with, at this very moment, all positions yielding profits.

On My Radar

To elaborate on what I said in the introduction, my goal in the next two to three weeks is to buy more BFZ singles and OGW singles and full sets. Unless you have a lot of time to dedicate to MTGO investments, full sets should be your bread and butter. They provide solid and predictable returns on large quantities of tix.

I'm also planing on buying singles and full sets of KTK and FRF. The fetchlands alone are a guarantee of value for KTK and a few mythics such as Anafenza, the Foremost and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon could see nice gains in the coming months.

Saleswise, I will flip all of my PZ1 positions very soon and convert the tix generated this way into the positions mentioned above.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

2 thoughts on “Insider: High Stakes MTGO – Mar 20th to Mar 26th

  1. Could you expand a bit on the play with the KTK sets – The set is at a lowpoint due to rotation and a lack of player interest, but has it got further to fall until actual rotation, or now is the time to move in?

    KTK sets are basically wrappers around fetch cycle/sorin/swiftspear. Paper value of these sum up to $71 buylist which means the set cost of $59 (goatbot)+$25 redemption is still worse off. If fetches face a dip at actual rotation would it be worthwhile to wait a few weeks?

    I’m doing a similar project at a mini scale (1/10th). Most of my portfolio is on full sets (BFZ at the moment) with a few singles specs here and there, so just like to say thanks for this article series and I follow it closely!

  2. Based on previous trends the lowest point for the whole set might really when SOI hits. However for singles, and mythics in particular the rebound may have already begun. So it’s a balancing act. Over all this is the right time and I guess that if you wonted to be as accurate as possible for each positions you have to be attentive to all cards every day.

    As for any sets only few cards are competitively playable outise of Standard, and maybe there’s more of these in KTK. But balance of prices when only redemption matters implies a lot of players: top singles, mythics, casual in paper, price difference between paper and MTGO, etc..

    Buying into full sets is the best middle position, with very limited risk and moderate guaranteed profits. Now you can add more icing on the cake by targeting some singles. As good as Fetch can be mythics can more easily double or triple after rotation. I really like Anafenza for instance.

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