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Insider: MTGO Market Report for May 9th, 2016

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of May 2nd, 2016. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively. Note that sets of Theros (THS) are out of stock in the store, so this set is no longer redeemable.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

May2

Flashback Draft of the Week

Flashback drafts add one booster of Planar Chaos to the mix, so the draft format is now Time Spiral-Time Spiral-Planar Chaos. Noted limited format analyst Oraymw posted a triple Time Spiral (TSP) draft guide over at the Limited Resources reddit. His work is top notch and always worth a read, so if you are thinking of dipping your toe into this draft format, definitely start with reading his post.

Modern

Cedric Phillips took down the weekend Modern PTQ with Bogles, a linear strategy focused on hexproof creatures and auras. Daybreak Coronet used to be a great card to speculate on, since it was in short supply coming out of the lightly printed Future Sight. It would fluctuate up and down in price as the Bogles deck came in and out of style.

Being reprinted in Modern Masters 2 as a rare made this a less attractive proposition. It's possible a new price pattern emerges if the deck sees increased short-term interest so it will be worth paying attention to.

Alternately, Horizon Canopy is another four-of out of this deck. It is also from Future Sight but it has not yet been reprinted (outside of the Oath of the Gatewatch Expeditions). This card saw a recent drop in price from 35 tix all the way down to 23 tix, but has since recovered back to 35 tix. The good thing about this land is that it finds application in other decks so it has a good chance of seeing 40+ tix again before the Fall.

Both of these cards will have fresh supply coming onto the market in the final week of Time Spiral block flashback drafts as Future Sight is added as the third booster.

Standard

Two Standard Grand Prix events were the place to look for new themes and archetypes this past week. I've linked here to the Grand Prix Tokyo Top 8 decklists and the Grand Prix New York Top 8 decklists.

Right off the top, Seth Manfield's winning deck from GP New York took a new direction with a planeswalker-heavy W/B Control list. As a result, Gideon, Ally of Zendikar has jumped to a six-month high of 23+ tix. This is the best and most played card out of Battle for Zendikar, so this kind of uptake in a new deck is significant. If Gideon dips back down to 20 tix or less over the summer, speculators and players should consider buying into this card.

Gideon has also been showing up in the G/W Tokens lists, but there was an interesting inclusion in Takuma Morofuji's version of that deck. He had Deathmist Raptor in the sideboard as a three-of. This green creature has been out of favor since the release of Shadows over Innistrad and the price has collapsed as a result; from a steady range of 13 to 15 tix, all the way down to 3 tix this week.

Although there's not much time for this card to rebound with Dragons of Tarkir rotating out of Standard in the Fall, any uptake in the short term could quickly push this card back into the 8+ tix range.

Standard Boosters

Magic Origins and Dragons of Tarkir boosters have both hit the 4 tix mark this week. There's not much left for these to do, although they will probably hit the 4.1 to 4.2 tix range at some point over the next month. If you are holding a draft set or two, and can't imagine playing these formats, then be sure to sell your boosters sooner rather than later. Eventually rotation out of Standard will start gnawing at the value in these sets, including the value of boosters.

Elsewhere, both OGW and BFZ have drifted down to 3.4 tix and 2.3 tix respectively. OGW was bid up by speculative buying which has eased off in the past week, but BFZ hasn't seen the same support. Until a firm bottom is in place for BFZ this one should be avoided, although it's difficult to imagine it dropping in price substantially from current levels. OGW boosters will be a buy if they fall into the 3.0 to 3.3 tix range again.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. With Planar Chaos being added to the Time Spiral flashback draft queues, one of my favorite pet cards is going to be on sale. Boom // Bust has never broken into the mainstream of Modern play, but it hangs around the edges and every now and then makes a small splash. This is not a good spec, but if you've got a hankering for land destruction, the next two weeks will be a good time to target this card.

Matthew Lewis

Matt Lewis currently lives in Ottawa, Canada and is a long time player and PTQ grinder who now speculates and plays exclusively on MTGO. He's always ready to discuss ideas and investment strategies, so drop him a line in the comments, the forums or on modo, username mattlewis.

View More By Matthew Lewis

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, MTGO, MTGO Market ReportTagged , , , ,

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3 thoughts on “Insider: MTGO Market Report for May 9th, 2016

  1. I enjoyed all flashbackdrafts so far, but i didn’t touch (or plan to) the Planar Chaos ones… the value is so incredibly low, and there is not a single common or uncommon that’s worth more then 0.1 tic; that’s pretty amazing. Only Future Sight could tempt me, but paying ten tic to open one booster of FS..nah.

    Point 2 : the buying into foil mythics of SOI the first week to have them to play with in standard, not working too well. All of them dropped since week one, Avacyn even more then 5 tic. I can only hope they will start rising when redemption starts next wednesday.

    1. Actually Nahiri is up quite substantially, and Seasons Past had a brief moment over 10 tix as well. Prices are generally down due to the extra foils given out for prereleases, but I would think you are still better off overall in terms of preserving tix going with foil play sets than with regular ones.

      My experience with BFZ and OGW is that foil mythic prices remain mostly stable while the set is being drafted, but have some upside after the set stops being drafted. This bears further watching, but so far I am satisfied with how the strategy is working out. It’s not a slam dunk investment strategy (yet) but there are gains to be made overall. In particular, OGW is looking quite good with large gains on Chandra and Kalitas.

  2. Hello, I’ve noticed that in the Redemption section there is the same data as may 2nd week.

    By chance do you have the data from this week 9th? I’m just trying to follow the BFZ and OGW sets.

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