Welcome back to Buy, Sell or Hold, after a brief recess due to the recent MTGO announcements. I don't think we will face the end of MTGO or the transition to the Hearthstone business model in the near future, but how Wizards manages (and has been managing in the last two years) the virtual version of the number one trading card game makes me worry about its continuity in the long term.
I'm not a fan of long-term speculations, mainly because every once in a while Wizards makes a big announcement with instant negative consequences for our portfolios. Their intentions are clear: they want cheaper card prices. Lowering the entrance cost for new players is very important for the game, and Wizards has been doing it well---the problem is that this has come at the expense of existing players' collections.
I closed all my profitable Modern positions as soon as I saw the announcement, and I'm still holding the others. Some prices are starting to rebound (they won't go down forever) and current prices are tempting, but the future is very uncertain. My recommendation is to avoid getting involved until we have a clearer and more predictable panorama.
All that we have left is Standard, which is the safest bet at the moment and could be very profitable in the next days because of the Pro Tour. So this week I will once more do an all-buy edition to stock up our portfolios before it's too late.
Collective Defiance's price dropped 50% right after the first new Standard Star City Games tournament because it wasn't even played in the R/W Vehicle decks that dominated the first week. The card had a home in the previous Standard, and I think it's just a matter of time before we see it back in new builds. Just 1 tix for it looks like a great deal.
Similar to Collective Defiance, Tireless Tracker only put two copies in the SCG Indianapolis Open Top 8. It was a two-of in G/B Delirium and the new G/W Aggro deck piloted by a few pros, but didn't come close to the outstanding results of the R/W Vehicles deck. We don't need much to see a price rebound---a few good performances at the Pro Tour or some different metagame conditions would suffice.
In the same line as before, looks like everything that wasn't in the R/W Vehicles went down. The difference here is that blue-red was an expected archetype when Kaladesh was spoiled but the first week's results did not comply. Look at that steep drop! I think this will rebound even before the Pro Tour because its price drop is exaggerated.
Thalia, Heretic Cathar
The trend here is very recognizable, and this is one of my favorite speculations. Thalia is bouncing somewhere between 0.50 and 1 tix. My strategy here is to buy and resell them as many times as possible until the trend changes and Thalia jumps off the rollercoaster. Right now circumstances are even better: she is actually slightly below her support level.
Lumbering Falls is off the radar in the current metagame, which has helped its price to keep going down. Now that the wave of players selling their Collected Company decks has ceased, it's a great time to grab this staple land for cheap. The card is just sitting there waiting for a metagame shift to go up again.
See you next week!