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Insider: MTGO Cards to Buy, Sell or Hold – Episode 15

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Hello, investors! This week was much calmer than the last few, and prices are finally starting to settle down. I don't think we will see big spikes in the following days, unless a new deck rise from the shadows – although this is always a possibility in Standard.

In regard to Modern, Treasure Chests seems to have reached a no-return point, and we will have to deal with it. Wizards's intention to lower singles prices is in conflict with speculators plans to make profits, and an unfortunate side effect is that it decreases the average portfolio price for all users, players and speculators alike.

Some Modern card prices could rebound once taken out of the curated Treasure Chest list and if they're not reprinted in a flashback draft event for a long while, but I won't invest in them because it is too risky. We still don't know if there will be any new event(s) after all the flashback drafts for the year are completed.

Based on Modern's riskiness, let's see what Standard is offering us:

Spell Queller

spell-queller

Blue-white decks didn't receive enough marketing at the Pro Tour because they didn't make top eight, even though they were the best-performing decks in the Constructed portion of the tournament. They managed to put up great numbers at recent GPs, though, and now are getting the attention they deserve.

Now is a good moment to sell Spell Queller, a key card in the deck, because many players are interested in it – in fact, it is the most-played deck in the online metagame. The field is open enough to keep changing, and I don't think it is worth holding to see if Queller will see even more play.

Verdict: SELL

 

Grim Flayer

grim-flayer

Another deck that made a glorious reappearance at last weekend's GP is Black-Green Delirium. Grim Flayer has been setting new high-point records almost every week since its release, and I think it is time to give it some rest. It is really hard for Standard cards to keep at this high a price level over time. "Buy when it is cheap, sell when it is high" is a phrase we all have heard several times and suits this occasion perfectly.

Verdict: SELL

 

Emrakul, the Promised End

emrakul-the-promised-end

Emrakul, the Promised End is another key card in BG Delirium decks, but if we compare the graphic above with Grim Flayer's, they are very different, maybe because Grim Flayer is a four-of while Emrakul is only a one- or two-of. The main difference is while Grim Flayer keeps making new highs every week, Emrakul has a more linear price history.

If you remember, the first spike was when Delirium and Emerge made their first appearances at Pro Tour Eldritch Moon out of nowhere. Plenty of investors quickly put their money on Emrakul, creating a financial bubble that exploded a few days later when those same investors liquidated.

The second and smaller spike was just before Pro Tour Kaladesh. This time investors bought in speculating that those same decks, almost unaffected by rotation, would dominate the tournament. That didn't happen, and again, the price plummeted.

This week, the deck showed it is still strong in the current metagame. From now on, I think Emrakul's price movement will start to look more like Grim Flayer's: a slow, steady climb upward. I won't recommend buying them right now, because the price has already rebounded and I'm not sure how high it will reach, but I would definitely hold any copies you have a little longer.

Verdict: HOLD

 

Oath of Nissa

oath-of-nissa

Oath of Nissa is completely off the radar in the current metagame. If you pay close attention, though, at the end of the above graphic you will see a small rebound after the announcement of the reversion to the old Standard rotation scheme. This week, the price went down again going below the 1 tix barrier. I think it is just a matter of time before we again see Oath of Nissa in decklists, and the price can hardly go lower. One of the best picks for such a dry week in terms of good buy options.

Verdict: BUY

 

Archangel Avacyn

archangel-avacyn

Archangel Avacyn // Avacyn, the Purifier is a staple in the blue-white decks that performed so well this week. Avacyn has reversed its long-term bearish trend since Shadows over Innistrad  rebounded. Mythic rares see different price movement than rares because they have a more limited supply, and the card could go up a little more, but in this case I prefer to sell into the hype rather than concentrate on making an uncertain extra profit.

Verdict: SELL

See you next week, and remember, if you want me to write about a particular card, just ask it in the comments below.

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