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Insider: Speculating on Amonkhet, Part II

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Last week I shared what I considered to be the cream of the crop for potential in Amonkhet investments. To date, here are my AKH speculations:

July 3rd AKH Investment snapshot

I have not been as optimistic about the more expensive cards of Amonkhet, and that is reflected in my article last week and in my investment portfolio. This week, though, let’s take an in-depth look at some of the flagship and more expensive cards in Amonkhet. Is anything there worth investing in? What should we be looking for? When is the opportune time to strike? Let’s dive in!

Like last time, bolded names will link to MTGGoldfish MTGO prices. The bold prices next to each card are the prices at which I would strongly consider buying in.

(1) Rhonas the Indomitable

Rhonas Price Chart

As a card that provides no way to generate card advantage, Rhonas’s price has exceeded my expectations. I had expected Rhonas to settle in the 3 to 4 tix range, but it has steadily commanded a price between 5 and 7.5 tix while seeing maindeck play only in one competitive archetype (RG Pummeler) and modest sideboard play elsewhere. While this suggests that its price would double or triple were it to anchor a tier-one strategy in the future, I suspect nothing short of a return of the ferocious mechanic would make it a better option than Rishkar, Peema Renegade at the three-drop slot in most aggressive Green strategies. I’d stay away.

Price I'd Consider Buying At: N/A

(2) Gideon of the Trials

Gideon of the Trials Price Chart

Here is a speculation target for the guy who likes to push all in-on a King-Jack suited.

Gideon of the Trials is a strong Magic card, already seeing play in Modern and fringe play in Standard. It is not Gideon, Ally of Zendikar 2.0 – Gideon, Ally of Zendikar plays equally well on both offense and defense, whereas Gideon of the Trials is much more at home in a defensive shell. Even still, if a white-based control deck becomes tier one in Standard at any point during the next two years, Gideon of the Trials will skyrocket in price, possibly rising as high as 15 to 20 tix.

At its current price around 7 tix, I am intrigued. My fear, though, is that much of its price is tied up in future potential already (id est, I suspect that speculators are hoarding copies of this card). I’d like to wait for speculators to lose some faith in it and buy in closer to the 3- to 4-tix range. At that price point, the risk would not be incredibly high because Gideon of the Trials’s price will be buffeted by Modern demand to a degree. At around 7 tix, though, there is a significant risk that you’ll end up selling at a 25- to 33-percent loss. I recommend patience here.

Price I'd Consider Buying At: $3.50

(3) Nissa, Steward of Elements

Nissa Steward of Elements

Like Gideon of the Trials, Nissa’s value is being buttressed by redemption and speculation. I think she is far less likely than Gideon to become a competitive staple. There’s a high likelihood that her trajectory will mirror that of Kiora, Master of the Depths, slowly draining away as more and more speculators conclude that she will never see meaningful Constructed play. Her potential is higher than that of Kiora, Master of the Depths, but there is virtually no price point at which I’m happy buying in because the odds are so heavily stacked against her seeing significant Standard play. Let her price drop to 1 to 1.5 tix over the next six months and then reevaluate.

Price I'd Consider Buying At: N/A 

(4) Angel of Sanctions

 

Angel of Sanctions Price Chart

I did not invest in Angel of Sanctions before it doubled in price – I was waiting for it to hit 1.5 tix, and it never did so, instead rebounding after reaching 2. I thought that Archangel Avacyn // Avacyn, the Purifier would keep its price mired between 1 and 2 tix until the approach of rotation, but apparently I was wrong.  The card is very strong and I could see it holding a price between 4 and 7.5 tix  during its Standard life with some spikes reaching as high as 10 to 12.5 tix. I don’t like investing in it at 4 tix, but if its price goes down, I would definitely recommend speculating on it.

Price I'd Consider Buying At: $2.00 - $2.50

(5) Liliana, Death’s Majesty 

 

Liliana, Death's Majesty Price Chart

I fully expect Liliana’s price trajectory to mirror Ob Nixilis Reignited:

Ob Nixilis Price Chart

Although Liliana can be better than Ob Nixilis in some decks and worse in others, it most likely will fulfill the same role – a sideboard staple for midrange decks to combat control and other midrange decks. She also has two advantages when compared to Ob Nixilis: (i) she came from the large spring set instead of the large fall set and (ii) she could be the linchpin of a Reanimator deck, should one emerge as a competitive archetype.

If her price drops by just a little bit, I’ll be investing in her. Ob Nixilis spent most of his Standard life between 2 and 5 tix with one major spike above 10. I expect Liliana, Death's Majesty’s price to hover between 2.5 and 6 tix for most of her life in Standard. The lowest possible price I could see her reach is 1.5 tix, so she feels like a fairly safe investment if you buy in at my recommended price point.

Price I'd Consider Buying At: $2.00 - $2.75

(6) Glorybringer

 

GLorybringer Price Chart

As with Liliana, Death's Majesty, we have a nice card to compare this one to: Stormbreath Dragon. As a mythic rare in a large set during the three-set block era, Stormbreath Dragon generally commanded a price between 10 and 15 tix with some occasional spikes to 17.  Glorybringer is a rare in a large set, which limits its potential. Still, though, Stormbreath Dragon dominated Standard during its entire Standard life, and Glorybringer should share that same prominence. It is the rare five-mana card that will be played as a playset in multiple competitive archetypes. It is reasonable to expect the card to see significant time at a 4- to 6-tix price point during its life in Standard, with spikes between 7.5 and 10 tix possible.

Price I'd Consider Buying At: $2.00 - $2.50

 

Signing Off

As I will discuss in future articles, where I plan to focus more on investment strategy and less on individual specific cards, whether you choose to invest in these more expensive cards or the less expensive cards depends in no small part on you. By my eye, for this set it seems that the cheaper cards offer a greater potential return on investment as a percentage, but of course it requires a greater degree of diligence and effort to get those levels of returns.

It looks like there are a few good Amonkhet speculation options at multiple price points, and hopefully my discussion will help you clarify which investments you wish to make. It looks like I will be speculating on some of the more expensive cards of Amonkhet after all!

As always, share your thoughts below. Today I have a real treat for you, one of a cycle of charms I have designed. Hopefully this charm can help ward off the impending Hour of Devastation:

Abbatial Charm

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