Daily Stock Watch – Thoughtseize

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Hi, everyone and welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Today marks the third day that we'll be featuring another card from Iconic Masters, which will be released over the weekend. I'll be talking about another multi-format staple that I think is something to look out for in the days to come.

It's undeniable that Thoughtseize is very popular to both casual and competitive players. It's an auto four-of in every deck that would like to have some card disruption and sometimes, having sufficient black mana sources to cast this on the first turn is enough reason for players to include it. You see it in Vintage, Legacy, Modern, Commander, and even in Frontier. It’s always a very good card to have in your deck or collection.

Four years have passed since its last reprint (let's pretend the Invocation printing didn't affect the normal supply of the card) and we'll be finally be seeing another increase in supply of Thoughtseize on the market. Historically, its price has also seen a downward trend right after the release of Theros as the market was flooded with supply and it took a while to regain its bearings and be financially very good again.

The Discard Gang

From a Modern perspective, these are the cards that reduced/accompanied Thoughtseize in majority of the decks where it saw play. It's arguable that it is still the better card than Inquisition of Kozilek and that would mean that whatever meta game environment Modern shifts to, it will always be the default card of choice for disruption. When the well of supplies dried up early this year, the price of Thoughtseize spiked across all versions due to popularity and demand.

Take a look at this Tier 1 5 Color Grixis Death's Shadow deck. You'd see here that there's at least two copies of almost each card (with the exception of Kolaghan's Command) that I showed you earlier. Based on my Utility Checker, 23% of top performing Modern decks for 2017 have an average of 3.2 copies of Thoughtseize on their main deck with Inquisition of Kozilek not being too far behind with 3.1 copies seeing a 22.8% usage rate. Thoughtseize is also seeing lots of action in Legacy, with an average of 2.8 copies being used on 17.5% of winning decks, while only an average of 1.9 copies of Inquisition of Kozilek are used in 3.2% percent of the field. This pretty much explains the price disparity of the two cards. We don't even have to check how it's faring in Commander and Frontier to further cement that observation.

So what point am I trying to get across?

If you'll be drafting IMA with some friends or joining tournaments with IMA as prize packs, try to trade in some unwanted cards for copies of Thoughtseize. I'd gladly buy multiple copies of it, especially if it falls in the $12-15 price range as soon as the market hits the peak for supply. The Invocation version is a thing of beauty, but I'd gladly settle for foil IMA versions if it goes down to like $60-70 (Star City Games is pre-selling it for $119.99 and it's out of stock) because only the Invocation copy is worthy of a $100 price tag in my opinion.

At the moment, you could still grab Theros copies of Thoughtseize from TCGPlayer with the price range varying from anywhere between $10.76 to $17.99 based on card condition. You should be able to snag near mint copies from Channel Fireball for $15.99, while Star City Games has decided to make both Theros and IMA copies available at $19.99. Unless you're a collector or someone who fancies first prints, stay away from buying Lorwyn copies but hang on to it if you have them. I also think that you should hold on to your foil copies, whatever versions it might be. Don’t worry so much about a foil price drop because the card is always relevant and wanted across all formats.

And that’s it for today! Check back in tomorrow as we continue this special edition of the Daily Stock Watch. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

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