Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! If you read yesterday's segment, we'll continue today with a different card that belongs to the same echelon of specs (in my opinion) as we're going to talk about another widely used common card that has been able to sustain its steady progress financially.
Burn has always been a popular archetype across all formats, and it's one of those decks that will never get old or not loved by casual and tournament players alike. At the forefront of this strategy has been one mana spells that slowly pry away your opponent's life total, making them cringe every turn with every spell that blasts them. One of these red burn spells that never gets lost on every list is Lava Spike, which just hit its all-time high today of $5.89 and is considered as one of the most expensive commons that's being extensively used in Modern (and in Legacy lists as well).
Burn has been underwhelming lately, and a large reason for that is how poorly it matches up to Humans (this is just based on my assessment, as I haven't lost a single match against Burn using the deck as well as my other friends who share the same sentiment) but it hasn't stopped Lava Spike from becoming the $5 card that it is today. Since it was last reprinted in Modern Masters, it has continued to trend upwards as supplies have dried up and it was able to dodge any reprints over the past couple of years. It has seen action in Naya, Boros and straight up red variants across all formats which explains why the demand has never slowed down for the card.
Along with Rift Bolt and Lightning Bolt, Lava Spike has created a burning trinity of single mana burn spells (provided that you suspend Rift Bolt, ofcourse) that could threaten to end the game at any moment. The presence of Goblin Guide, Monastery Swiftspear and the occasional appearance of Grim Lavamancer makes sure that the Burn player has enough pressure at every turn. The deck has been able to stay relevant no matter what the metagame is, and is always something that every deck maker is thinking of when they are constructing their lists. Losing to Burn due to unpreparedness is almost inconceivable for competitive Modern play nowadays, and is one factor as to why the deck hasn't been winning much lately.
The cards above are shoo-ins for almost any list that a Burn player could come up with, and all of them should continue to see significant financial gains for as long as they dodge reprints (Monastery Swiftspear and Lightning Bolt are the exceptions with their appearances in IMA and A25 respectively), but I think that some of them are showing up again soon in an upcoming special set. The fact that Lava Spike is an arcane spell makes it extra harder to reprint in a non-themed set, so I think that it's a safe bet that it could still reach $10 if the market continues to go low on supplies of it. I'm not really telling you to hoard them now or aggressively trade for them, but you should be able to gain something over time by snagging a few copies now at below $5 and letting go of it in a couple months time.
At the moment, you could pick up copies of Lava Spike from online stores such as StarCityGames, TCGPlayer and Card Kingdom for anywhere between $5.49 up to $5.99, depending on card condition. There aren't really much copies moving around so once their supplies have dried up, expect the price to climb up again. It wouldn't be a bad idea holding on to your spec copies for a few more months, so just watch the market movement for the time being. It should only be a matter of time before it reaches its ceiling (of around $10 in my estimate) for as long as it doesn't get reprinted.
And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!