Hello, everyone and welcome to a new segment of the Daily Stock Watch! I have to be honest that I was pretty much disappointed when Guilds of Ravnica was spoiled but I'm happy now that I'm somehow being proven wrong by my initial impressions. I wrote about Vexing Devil yesterday which was the recipient of a financial boost courtesy of Pelt Collector and today, I will be writing about a card that's actually making a name for itself both in Standard and Modern (and maybe Duel Commander if its viable) as it has slowly rose to $10 range from its initial release of $2.93.
Char was a pretty decent burn spell back in the day, and so was Browbeat. I didn't actually think that you could get the best of both worlds (sans the ability to hit the creature which you get with Char at the cost of two life) and have the ability to do it again in a manner that allows you to abuse another mechanic. Just imagine playing Risk Factor when you have three mana, then playing it via jump start and discarding a Fiery Temper for an 11-point life swing, or three damage and access to six new cards. That's a high value threat that could net you a decent haul for one card slot, six mana, and a card that you could afford to discard (or would love to be discarded to be abused e.g. Bloodghast or Flamewake Phoenix).
There have been multiple brews already both in Standard and Modern and I'd like to give you a glimpse of how Risk Factor is doing in those respective lists so far.
I guess it's pretty safe to say that a card is really good if it's already getting a lot of exposure in tried and tested decks across various formats. Risk Factor might not have the versatility of other burn spells to rid the board of possible threats, but it has the ability to almost guarantee four damage when you cast it unless your opponent would like to gamble and hope you get three lands off the three cards you'll draw. The jump start mechanic puts the card over the top though I'm still not convinced that it will be as successful as it seems now when you look at it on paper. The $10 price tag is somehow justified for me, as I could easily see this card hitting the $15-$20 barrier in a short-term window. I'd say that if you'd like to invest on the card now, get it for $10 or less and move them when it hits the price range I just mentioned. I'd also favor the foil copies more in this scenario.
At the moment, you could get a lot of copies of Risk Factor from online stores such as StarCityGames, TCGPlayer, Card Kingdom, and ChannelFireball for anywhere between $8.49 up to $11.99 for normal copies. It's safe to wedge your bet on the ones below $10 in my opinion, as there will be lots of love for it among the red-loving crowd. Just be wary that an awful lot of GRN will be opened in the coming months until the box EV eventually balances itself out and box opening won't be as appealing as it is right now. I would go for foil copies at below $15 as well if that's possible. I'm quite sure we'd be seeing a lot of Red Deck Wins in Standard and Modern for the coming weeks that's jammed with copies of this card.
And that’s it for today’s edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!