August marks the end of the Modern RCQ season and the start of a prolonged period of Standard. I'm unsold on Wizards' dedicated effort to make Standard great again, but that might just be because I've played through so many periods of Standard being stagnant and bad.

In any case, the Modern RCs will have a metagame whose top end is quite stable while the bottom is increasingly diverse and turbulent. However, I'm doubtful that it will produce particularly surprising results.

The Typical Outliers

As has become standard, Boros Energy is an outlier in both paper's data and on Magic Online (MTGO). It's blindingly obvious when you look at the data, and I don't think it surprises anyone anymore. It is joined by Domain Zoo on MTGO, though that's mostly because I'm lazy. There are at least four distinct builds running around, identifiable as the same archetype only because they all run Scion of Draco, Territorial Kavu, Leyline of the Guildpact, and Leyline Binding. Everything else changes wildly deck to deck, with even former staple Tribal Flames declining. I've decided it's not worth my time to break up this deck, but I'll stand by it not being a deck but a strategic archetype.

As always, outliers are reported in their correct position on the Tier List but are removed from the data analysis.

July Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck "should" produce in a given month. To be considered a tiered deck, it must perform better than "good enough". Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list.

Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and the cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks that perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least two standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks.

The MTGO data nearly exclusively comes from official Preliminary, Qualifiers, and Challenge results. Leagues are excluded, as they add analytically useless bulk data to both the population and power tiers. The paper data comes from any source I can find, with all reported events being counted.

While the MTGO events report predictable numbers, paper events can report anything from only the winner to all the results. In the latter case, if match results aren't included, I'll take as much of the Top 32 as possible. If match results are reported, I'll take winning record up to Top 32, and then any additional decks tied with 32nd place, as tiebreakers are a magic most foul and black.

The MTGO Population Data

June's adjusted average population for MTGO is 12.26. I always round down if the decimal is less than .20. Tier 3, therefore, begins with decks posting 13 results. The adjusted STdev was 19.44, so add 20 and that means Tier 3 runs to 33 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then the next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 34 results and runs to 54. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 55 decks are required.

The sample population continues to fall, from 1538 in June to 1440. The focus of competitive play is moving away from Modern, so it's expected. August should produce a similar population number. Unique decks fell considerably from 108 to 90, producing a unique deck ratio of .062, which is poor compared to June's .070 or April's .065, but it's still better than May's was .051. 25 decks made the tier list, the same as in June.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
Boros Energy	248	17.22
Domain Zoo	113	7.85
Broodscale Combo	84	5.83
BW Blink	81	5.63
Amulet Titan	74	5.14
Tameshi Belcher	59	4.10
Esper Blink	58	4.03
Tier 2
Frogtide	49	3.40
Living End	49	3.40
Neobrand	49	3.40
Izzet Prowess	42	2.92
Abhorrent Frogtide	41	2.85
Ruby Storm	41	2.85
Goryo Blink	38	2.64
Tier 3
Green-based Eldrazi	33	2.29
Tribal Eldrazi	28	1.94
Mardu Energy	27	1.87
UW Control	27	1.87
Kappa	23	1.60
Mono-Green Etron	19	1.32
Simic Ritual	18	1.25
Mill	17	1.18
Jeskai Dress Down	17	1.18
Izzet Cutter	14	0.97
Mono-Black Saga	13	0.90

As noted in June, Green-Based Eldrazi is falling off and collapsed into Tier 3 during July. I don't foresee this turning around any time soon. It's far too much of a generalist deck. It ramps very well, but as devastating as Emrakul, the Promised End can be it isn't game ending. This is made worse by Consign to Memory's prevalence. The tribal version is at least an aggro deck with Cavern of Souls to get bodies onto the board. For ramp Eldrazi to make a comeback, it needs a better angle of attack.

Meanwhile, the fight over Blink's future continues. The Esper variant is now at war with itself thanks to Quantum Riddler. Traditionally, Blink dipped into blue for sideboard Consign and use Psychic Frog to finally make the investment in Ketramose, the New Dawn pay off.

The deck's been fine but never actually overcame straight WB's mana stability. Riddler acts similarly enough to Overlord of the Balemurk that some are now using it as the backup card advantage engine. The Blink players I know said the card is...fine. Just...fine. We'll see how this plays out, but I expect Riddler's price to fall in the near future. I don't believe it's a $30 card as I've seen in some places.

The Paper Population Data

Paper's population continues to decline as RCQ season ends, down from 655 to 424. There were still a ton of small events, but they report at most the Top 8 and there weren't any big Modern events to fill out the data. This will reverse once the RCs happen. I recorded 66 unique decks for a ratio of .156, which is an improvement over June's .134.

19 decks made the tier list, which is below average for paper, but expected given the low population. The adjusted average population is 5.58, so 6 results make the list. The adjusted STDev is 6.83, so the increment is 7. Therefore, Tier 3 runs from 6 to 13, Tier 2 is 14 to 21 and Tier 1 is 22 and over.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
Boros Energy	61	14.39
Domain Zoo	29	6.84
BW Blink	28	6.60
Tameshi Belcher	25	5.90
Tier 2
Esper Blink	20	4.72
Amulet Titan	20	4.72
Green-Based Eldrazi	17	4.01
Izzet Prowess	17	4.01
Broodscale Combo	14	3.30
Tier 3
Izzet Cutter	13	3.07
Goryo Blink	12	2.83
Frogtide	11	2.59
Abhorrent Frogtide	11	2.59
Tribal Eldrazi	9	2.12
Mardu Energy	8	1.89
Mono-Green Etron	8	1.89
Colorless Etron	6	1.41
Hollowvine	6	1.41
Living End	6	1.41

Boros Energy ran away in July, reversing its June decline. This doesn't surprise me. I've seen a lot of competitive seasons and in non-rotated metagames there's a trend. The presumed best deck starts off the season very strongly, declines in the midseason as players adapt, and then roars back at the end. The late surge is all the players who failed to qualify early switching to the best deck in desperation. A lot of Boros players admitted to it at the late-July RCQ's I attended.

The decks and metagame trends shown in the MTGO data are largely still present, except for Broodscale Combo. It's quite unusual for a deck that's Tier 1 online to be just barely Tier 2 in paper, or vice versa. At a glance, there's no obvious reason why the paper metagame is more unfavorable and you'd think that a deck with as many moving parts would be easier to play in paper than online. If anyone has an explanation, I'm all ears.

July Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame so that a deck that just squeaks into Top 32 isn't valued the same as one that Top 8's. This better reflects metagame potential.

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries and similar events award points based on record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5), and Challenges are scored 3 points for the Top 8, 2 for Top 16, and 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players.

Due to paper reporting being inconsistent and frequently full of data gaps compared to MTGO, its points work differently. I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. For events with no reported starting population or up to 32 players, one point is awarded to every deck. Events with 33 players up to 128 players get two points. From 129 players up to 512 players get three. Above 512 is four points, and five points is reserved for Modern Pro Tours. When paper reports more than the Top 8, which is rare, I take all the decks with a winning record or tied for Top 32, whichever is pertinent.

The MTGO Power Tiers

As with the population numbers, total points are down from 2720 to 2552. The adjusted average points were 21.53, therefore 22 points made Tier 3. The adjusted STDev was 34.98 so add 35 to the starting point, and Tier 3 runs to 57 points. Tier 2 starts with 58 points and runs to 93. Tier 1 requires at least 94 points. There's a lot of shuffling inside each tier and several decks rose and fell between Tiers. No decks fell off the Tier List, but Jeskai Wizards managed to sneak on.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
Boros Energy	444	17.40
Domain Zoo	213	8.35
BW Blink	151	5.92
Broodscale Combo	150	5.88
Amulet Titan	130	5.09
Tameshi Belcher	115	4.51
Esper Blink	101	3.96
Tier 2
Living End	89	3.49
Neobrand	83	3.25
Frogtide	79	3.10
Ruby Storm	77	3.02
Izzet Prowess	76	2.98
Abhorrent Frogtide	70	2.74
Goryo Blink	67	2.62
Tier 3
Green-based Eldrazi	56	2.19
Tribal Eldrazi	56	2.19
Mardu Energy	49	1.92
Kappa	41	1.61
UW Control	38	1.49
Jeskai Dress Down	34	1.33
Simic Ritual	32	1.25
Mono-Green Etron	31	1.21
Izzet Cutter	27	1.06
Mill	26	1.02
Mono-Black Saga	24	0.94
Jeskai Wizards	24	0.94

The intra-Tier shuffling is mostly caused by combo decks moving up toward Tier 1. Combo is a generally poor matchup for top-dog Energy, but Modern combo has generally been struggling in the wider metagame. Other than Tameshi Belcher. That deck gets away with a lot. Consequently, I'll be watching to see if this was a one-time fluke or the harbinger of a metagame shift.

The Paper Power Tiers

Paper's total points are 619. Again, with only small events that don't report everything points are going to crater. I don't know why stores aren't posting their results anymore. It used to be that was a major incentive for players to come out and get your name and deck posted on the internet. Could be the times have changed, or TOs are getting lazier. There are several in my area that I know are the latter. The adjusted average points were 8.12, setting the cutoff at 8 points. The STDev was 10.39, so add 11 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 19 points. Tier 2 starts with 20 points and runs to 31. Tier 1 requires at least 32 points.

Again, nothing fell off, but Neobrand did make it onto the Tier list.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
Boros Energy	91	14.70
Domain Zoo	45	7.27
Tameshi Belcher	42	6.78
BW Blink	40	6.46
Tier 2
Esper Blink	30	4.85
Amulet Titan	30	4.85
Green-Based Eldrazi	23	3.72
Broodscale Combo	23	3.72
Izzet Prowess	22	3.55
Tier 3
Goryo Blink	19	3.07
Izzet Cutter	18	2.91
Abhorrent Frogtide	18	2.91
Frogtide	12	1.94
Tribal Eldrazi	11	1.78
Mardu Energy	11	1.78
Mono-Green Etron	10	1.61
Colorless Etron	10	1.61
Hollowvine	10	1.61
Living End	10	1.61
Neobrand	8	1.29

Just like on MTGO, paper combo decks did better on points than population. This is further evidence for there being actual movement within the metagame, even if Tier 1 is largely unaffected.

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus was first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without big paper events. I tried. Instead, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement.

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug, but a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category, they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.

Deck Name	MTGO Pop Tier	MTGO Power Tier	MTGO Average Tier	Paper Pop Tier	Paper Power Tier	Paper Average Tier	Composite Tier
Boros Energy	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Domain Zoo	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
BW Blink	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Tameshi Belcher	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Broodscale Combo	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.50
Amulet Titan	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.50
Esper Blink	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.50
Izzet Prowess	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Frogtide	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Living End	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Abhorrent Frogtide	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Goryo Blink	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.50
Green-based Eldrazi	3	3	3	2	2	2	2.50
Neobrand	2	2	2	N/A	3	3.5	2.75
Ruby Storm	2	2	2	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.00
Tribal Eldrazi	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Mardu Energy	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Mono-Green Etron	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Izzet Cutter	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
UW Control	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Kappa	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Simic Ritual	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Mill	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Jeskai Dress Down	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Mono-Black Saga	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Colorless Etron	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Hollowvine	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Jeskai Wizards	N/A	3	3.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.75

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking the total points earned and dividing them by total decks, to measure points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. While you can make a Wins-Above-Replacement-esq metric for the Magic cards in an individual deck, there's no way to make one that lets you compare decks. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual.

Using the power rankings helps to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Therefore, the top tier doesn't move much between population and power and obscures whether its decks really earned their position. 

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better.

A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, whereas low averages result from mediocre performances and a high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. Bear this in mind and be careful about reading too much into these results. However, as a general rule, decks that place above the baseline average are over-performing, and vice versa.

How far above or below that average a deck sits justifies its position on the power tiers. Decks well above baseline are undervalued, while decks well below baseline are very popular, but aren't necessarily good.

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its "true" potential.

A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from the average, the more a deck under or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite of this.

We'll start with MTGO's average:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Tribal Eldrazi	2.00	3
Jeskai Dress Down	2.00	3
Jeskai Wizards	2.00	3
Tameshi Belcher	1.95	1
Izzet Cutter	1.93	3
Domain Zoo	1.88	1
Ruby Storm	1.88	2
BW Blink	1.86	1
MB Saga	1.85	3
Living End	1.82	2
Izzet Prowess	1.81	2
Mardu Energy	1.81	3
Boros Energy	1.79	1
Broodscale Combo	1.79	1
Kappa	1.78	3
Simic Ritual	1.78	3
Amulet Titan	1.76	1
Goryo Blink	1.76	2
Esper Blink	1.74	1
Abhorrent Frogtide	1.71	2
Green-based Eldrazi	1.70	3
Baseline	1.70
Neobrand	1.69	2
MG Etron	1.63	3
Frogtide	1.61	2
Mill	1.53	3
UW Control	1.41	3

Congratulations to MTGO Deck of July, Tameshi Belcher. I find you incredibly frustrating to play against, but that doesn't take away from your power and success. I just wish Wizards hadn't gone so deep on dual-faced cards.

Now for paper's average:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Tameshi Belcher	1.68	1
Colorless Etron	1.67	3
Hollowvine	1.67	3
Living End	1.67	3
Broodscale Combo	1.64	2
Abhorrent Frogtide	1.64	3
Neobrand	1.60	3
Goryo Blink	1.58	3
Domain Zoo	1.55	1
Esper Blink	1.50	2
Amulet Titan	1.50	2
Boros Energy	1.49	1
BW Blink	1.43	1
Baseline	1.40
Izzet Cutter	1.38	3
Mardu Energy	1.37	3
Green-Based Eldrazi	1.35	2
Izzet Prowess	1.29	2
MG Etron	1.25	3
Tribal Eldrazi	1.22	3
Frogtide	1.09	3

Ok, Belcher, I already don't like you. There's no cause to rub it in by also winning Paper Deck of July. That's just rude.

Analysis

Before RCQ season started, Wizards declared that they wouldn't be intervening until it was over. Wizards doesn't like disrupting RCQ seasons, not even for things like Nadu. They've moved their schedule around to avoid doing that which is wild to me, but whatever. It's Wizards policy, they can do what they want with it. The question now is whether Wizards will or should intervene now. I think the answer is complicated.

By all the metrics, Wizards doesn't need to ban anything. Boros Energy has a huge metagame share, but so did Izzet Murktide and Wizards left it alone. Modern is quite diverse and there's counterplay for all the major decks. There are signs of metagame adaptation.

According to the win rates, nothing is unacceptably high. Wizards' redline historically was 55% non-mirror winrate for top decks, and Energy is below that line. There are some above the line, but they're sufficiently less popular that Wizards is almost certainly fine with them. If you care only for hard data, then there's no need to ban anything. We never know if Wizards is interested in unbans, so that's not a consideration.

Failing the Vibe Check

However, Modern's vibes are off.

I know that's subjective, but I've heard from many in person players and random internet commentors that they feel tired and Modern feels boring. Their explanations are all over the place, but there's a definite feeling that Modern's just...not as fun as it was. I know that's extremely subjective, but I suspect Energy is to blame. It was delivered fully formed in Modern Horizons 3 and since then been better than every deck not playing Nadu, Winged Wisdom.

Izzet Murktide did the same thing, but its performance and average points weren't anything special. It was everywhere because players liked its gameplay, not because it was overwhelmingly the best deck. Boros is the best aggro deck by far and has the best midgame of any Modern deck. Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury coupled with Ajani, Nacatl Pariah will do that, especially backed up by Seasoned Pyromancer and/or Fable of the Mirror Breaker. Boros isn't just taking up a lot of tournament slots, it's occupying a lot of Modern's strategic space and excluding other decks, and I think that's the real problem. It feels like Modern is severely restricted by Boros Energy.

A metagame needs both diversity and dynamism to feel fresh and exciting. One deck being unchallengeable makes a format stale. I don't know how widespread this feeling is, nor if Wizards cares if it is widespread or not. I do know that if it was up to me, I'd take Energy down another peg to let other decks rise. I don't think that anything currently available is going to organically knock Energy off its pedestal.

Edging In

Meanwhile, Edge of Eternities has arrived and while there are lots of new interesting cards, only Riddler is getting much traction. As I anticipated, the various Hardened Scales-synergy cards provoked a huge initial price spike before cratering. Tezzeret, Cruel Captain is holding steady based on Legacy and Commander potential but really isn't working in Modern at time of writing. Riddler's a fine Modern card, but I can't see it being more than $20 due to lack of Standard play.

All things are subject to change, and one unassuming card might drive that change. Pinnacle Emissary might be broken. Making lots of thopters by warping in Emissary and dumping your hand isn't that impressive but using them to play turn one Kappa Cannoneer is very impressive. I'm watching Emissary closely. So long as Mox Opal is legal, there's a chance of artifacts getting really broken. If anyone figures out a better Emissary payoff than Kappa, things will very quickly get very busted.

Financial Implications

I hope that everyone speculating on the hyped cards turned their inventory around quickly. EOE prices are already falling, many of them hard. With Modern on the back burner until the RCs, there's unlikely to be much demand for new, Modern specific cards until late September or October.

However, keep tabs on MTGO movements. If something new emerges, players will rush to buy it in paper. Stay flexible and hold the artifact staples as that's the most likely source of something new and exciting.