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Welcome to 2026! May your future look bright and whatever ailed you in 2025 stay there. Unless what ailed you was the Modern metagame. We've got at least another month of it before there's a possibility of relief. I mentioned several times in last month's update that December would provide the definitive answers to a lot of questions. It has, and I don't like the answers. I imagine many of you won't either.
The Outliers are...Something
Boros Energy is an outlier in both paper and online play. It is the only outlier I treated as an outlier for December. As always, outliers are removed from the data analysis but are reported in their correct position on the Tier List.
Those with reading comprehension have picked up on the implication there could have been more. There are some very large gaps in the data, in real numbers for online and proportionately in the paper data. This translated to the outlier tests being all over the place. I could have treated four online decks and four paper ones as outliers according to some tests. The only consistency between the tests was that Energy was an outlier, so that's the only one I accepted.
For stats/data analysis students, there are a lot of ways to define outliers and far more opinions on what to do about them. I only eliminate outliers if 1) there's a consensus between the various outlier tests, and 2) if it meaningfully changes the final conclusions. There's no point otherwise. Taking Energy out of the data moved the metrics significantly and allowed many more decks to be on the Tier List. Removing the other potential outlier barely moved the needle, so what's the point?
December Population Metagame
To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck "should" produce in a given month. To be considered a tiered deck, it must perform better than "good enough". Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list.
Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and the cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks that perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least two standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks.
The MTGO data nearly exclusively comes from official Preliminary, Qualifiers, and Challenge results. Leagues are excluded, as they add analytically useless bulk data to both the population and power tiers. The paper data comes from any source I can find, with all reported events being counted.
While the MTGO events report predictable numbers, paper events can report anything from only the winner to all the results. In the latter case, if match results aren't included, I'll take as much of the Top 32 as possible. If match results are reported, I'll take winning record up to Top 32, and then any additional decks tied with 32nd place, as tiebreakers are a magic most foul and black.
The MTGO Population Data
December's adjusted average population for MTGO is 12.70. I always round down if the decimal is less than .20. Tier 3, therefore, begins with decks posting 13 results. The adjusted STdev was 23.33, so add 24 and that means Tier 3 runs to 37 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then the next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 38 results and runs to 62. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 63 decks are required.
The sample population is up from November, 1355 to 1510. It's really close to October's 1536, which is really surprising. A significant number of Challenges didn't fire in December, particularly those around Christmas. That's not surprising, as play numbers always fall during the holidays. I thought this would translate into a lower population than November because I don't look at the population numbers until the month's over, so December actually being up was very surprising.
Unique decks are consequently up too, from 81 to 101, yielding a unique deck ratio of .067, which is pretty much average for online. 26 decks made the Tier List, which is pretty high for the past few months but just barely above average for 2025.
| Deck Name | Total # | Total % |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||
| Boros Energy | 240 | 15.89 |
| Ruby Storm | 130 | 8.61 |
| Jeskai Blink | 109 | 7.22 |
| Weapons Affinity | 93 | 6.16 |
| Izzet Prowess | 66 | 4.37 |
| Esper Blink | 64 | 4.24 |
| Green-Based Eldrazi | 64 | 4.24 |
| Tier 2 | ||
| Domain Zoo | 61 | 4.04 |
| Amulet Titan | 48 | 3.18 |
| Neobrand | 47 | 3.11 |
| MG Etron | 46 | 3.05 |
| Yawgmoth | 38 | 2.52 |
| Tier 3 | ||
| Tameshi Belcher | 37 | 2.45 |
| Goryo Blink | 31 | 2.05 |
| Izzet Cutter | 29 | 1.92 |
| Simic Ritual | 28 | 1.85 |
| MB Saga | 26 | 1.72 |
| Living End | 23 | 1.52 |
| UW Control | 18 | 1.19 |
| Grixis Reanimator | 18 | 1.19 |
| Mill | 17 | 1.13 |
| Dimir Tempo | 16 | 1.06 |
| Colorless Etron | 16 | 1.06 |
| Jeskai Energy | 14 | 0.93 |
| Rakdos Elementals | 14 | 0.93 |
| Broodscale Combo | 13 | 0.86 |
While it being third on the Tier List might suggest that Jeskai Blink has stabilized if not improved its metagame positioning, that comes with a massive asterisk. Until the last week of December, it was actually in fourth place and had been as low as sixth place during December's second week. It improved to third after Prowess had a significant fall-off, and then Jeskai started surging while Weapons Affinity fell off. This looks more like luck than anything else.
Speaking of Affinity, up until December I'd been lumping all the Pinnacle Emissary/Weapons Manufacturing decks together as Weapons Affinity. However, the lists have started to split with some leaning more towards Manufacturing as a central piece with Arcbound Ravager and other sac outlets, while others are moving back towards being all-in on Kappa Cannoneer. Going forward, they'll be split with the former being Weapons Affinity while the latter is Kappa Weapons.
The Paper Population Data
December is never a good month for paper events. Back in the day, Wizards ended the Grand Prix season in November and barely ran anything in December so they could go home for the holidays. We may not have that kind of competitive environment anymore, but the logic still holds and a lot of stores take it easy in December. Consequently, the population crashed from 1192 to 352. Unique decks also fell from 84 to 56, but that means a ratio of .159, well above average for the latter half of 2025. Low-stakes events meant players brought out the fun decks, not the good ones.
17 decks made the tier list, same as in November, but that's actually good for the low population. The adjusted average population is 5.65 so the List starts at 6. The STDev is 7.42, so the increment is 8. Therefore, Tier 3 runs from 6 to 14, Tier 2 is 15 to 23 and Tier 1 is 24 and over.
| Deck Name | Total # | Total % |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||
| Boros Energy | 41 | 11.65 |
| Izzet Prowess | 31 | 8.81 |
| Jeskai Blink | 28 | 7.95 |
| Tier 2 | ||
| Domain Zoo | 23 | 6.53 |
| Weapons Affinity | 23 | 6.53 |
| Amulet Titan | 22 | 6.25 |
| Yawgmoth | 17 | 4.83 |
| Goryo Blink | 15 | 4.26 |
| Tier 3 | ||
| Esper Blink | 12 | 3.41 |
| Ruby Storm | 11 | 3.13 |
| UW Control | 11 | 3.13 |
| Broodscale Combo | 10 | 2.84 |
| Simic Ritual | 9 | 2.56 |
| Izzet Cutter | 8 | 2.27 |
| Green-Based Eldrazi | 6 | 1.70 |
| Colorless Etron | 6 | 1.70 |
| Tameshi Belcher | 6 | 1.70 |
The biggest change from MTGO to paper play is the disappearance of Ruby Storm. Storm shot up quickly in December and then tenaciously held onto second place throughout the month online, but barely did anything in paper. If anyone had any doubts about the different environments between play mediums, this is a very stark one.
December Power Metagame
Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame so that a deck that just squeaks into Top 32 isn't valued the same as one that Top 8's. This better reflects metagame potential.
For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries and similar events award points based on record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5), and Challenges are scored 3 points for the Top 8, 2 for Top 16, and 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players.
Due to paper reporting being inconsistent and frequently full of data gaps compared to MTGO, its points work differently. I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. For events with no reported starting population or up to 32 players, one point is awarded to every deck. Events with 33 players up to 128 players get two points. From 129 players up to 512 players get three. Above 512 is four points, and five points is reserved for Modern Pro Tours. When paper reports more than the Top 8, which is rare, I take all the decks with a winning record or tied for Top 32, whichever is pertinent.
The MTGO Power Tiers
As with the population numbers, total points rose to 2677. The adjusted average points were 22.60, therefore 23 points made Tier 3. The adjusted STDev was 42.41 so add 43 to the starting point, and Tier 3 runs to 66 points. Tier 2 starts with 67 points and runs to 110. Tier 1 requires at least 111 points. There's a lot of movement inside each tier and between tiers, with Rakdos Elementals falling off and being replaced by Kappa Weapons. I'm just now realizing that Kappa's Cannons would be a much better name for that deck.
| Deck Name | Total Points | Total % |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||
| Boros Energy | 417 | 15.58 |
| Ruby Storm | 247 | 9.23 |
| Jeskai Blink | 191 | 7.13 |
| Weapons Affinity | 163 | 6.09 |
| Green-Based Eldrazi | 116 | 4.33 |
| Esper Blink | 115 | 4.30 |
| Domain Zoo | 112 | 4.18 |
| Tier 2 | ||
| Izzet Prowess | 106 | 3.96 |
| MG Etron | 86 | 3.21 |
| Amulet Titan | 85 | 3.17 |
| Neobrand | 85 | 3.17 |
| Tameshi Belcher | 71 | 2.65 |
| Yawgmoth | 69 | 2.58 |
| Tier 3 | ||
| Izzet Cutter | 59 | 2.20 |
| Goryo Blink | 56 | 2.09 |
| Simic Ritual | 51 | 1.90 |
| MB Saga | 47 | 1.76 |
| Living End | 41 | 1.53 |
| UW Control | 37 | 1.38 |
| Grixis Reanimator | 33 | 1.23 |
| Jeskai Energy | 30 | 1.12 |
| Colorless Etron | 28 | 1.05 |
| Dimir Tempo | 27 | 1.01 |
| Broodscale Combo | 26 | 0.97 |
| Mill | 25 | 0.93 |
| Kappa Weapons | 23 | 0.86 |
Yawgmoth is back after almost completely disappearing for months. Broodscale Combo and to a lesser extent Sam's Ritual completely killed off Yawgmoth for a while, but Badgermole Cub brought it back. It's nice that card has a home after the massive hype it got, but I correctly foresaw it being another White Orchid Phantom/Flagstones of Trokair situation. Yes, you can ramp by earthbending a fetchland, but why do you want to?
The Paper Power Tiers
Paper's total points also crashed from 515. The adjusted average points were 8.29, setting the cutoff at 9 points. The STDev was 10.99, so add 11 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 20 points. Tier 2 starts with 21 points and runs to 32. Tier 1 requires at least 33 points. Again, there's a lot of movement between the population and power tiers. Colorless Etron fell off, replaced by Tribal Eldrazi. This made me double take about them being the same deck.
| Deck Name | Total Points | Total % |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||
| Boros Energy | 59 | 11.46 |
| Izzet Prowess | 50 | 9.71 |
| Jeskai Blink | 34 | 6.60 |
| Domain Zoo | 33 | 6.41 |
| Amulet Titan | 33 | 6.41 |
| Tier 2 | ||
| Weapons Affinity | 31 | 6.02 |
| Yawgmoth | 28 | 5.44 |
| Goryo Blink | 22 | 4.27 |
| Tier 3 | ||
| Esper Blink | 18 | 3.49 |
| Ruby Storm | 17 | 3.30 |
| UW Control | 17 | 3.30 |
| Broodscale Combo | 17 | 3.30 |
| Izzet Cutter | 14 | 2.72 |
| Simic Ritual | 13 | 2.52 |
| Green-Based Eldrazi | 10 | 1.94 |
| Tameshi Belcher | 9 | 1.75 |
| Tribal Eldrazi | 9 | 1.75 |
Composite Metagame
That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus was first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without big paper events. I tried. Instead, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement.
This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug, but a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category, they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.
| Deck Name | MTGO Pop Tier | MTGO Power Tier | MTGO Average Tier | Paper Pop Tier | Paper Power Tier | Paper Average Tier | Composite Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boros Energy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
| Jeskai Blink | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
| Izzet Prowess | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.25 |
| Weapons Affinity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.50 |
| Domain Zoo | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| Amulet Titan | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| Ruby Storm | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.00 |
| Esper Blink | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.00 |
| Green-Based Eldrazi | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.00 |
| Yawgmoth | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Tameshi Belcher | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.75 |
| Goryo Blink | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.75 |
| Neobrand | 2 | 2 | 2 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.00 |
| MG Etron | 2 | 2 | 2 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.00 |
| Izzet Cutter | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 |
| Simic Ritual | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 |
| UW Control | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 |
| Broodscale Combo | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 |
| Colorless Etron | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | 3.5 | 3.25 |
| MB Saga | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.50 |
| Living End | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.50 |
| Grixis Reanimator | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.50 |
| Mill | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.50 |
| Dimir Tempo | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.50 |
| Jeskai Energy | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.50 |
| Rakdos Elementals | 3 | N/A | 3.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.75 |
| Kappa Weapons | N/A | 3 | 3.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.75 |
| Tribal Eldrazi | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 | 3.5 | 3.75 |
Average Power Rankings
Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking the total points earned and dividing them by total decks, to measure points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. While you can make a Wins-Above-Replacement-esq metric for the Magic cards in an individual deck, there's no way to make one that lets you compare decks. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual.
Using the power rankings helps to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Therefore, the top tier doesn't move much between population and power and obscures whether its decks really earned their position.
This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better.
A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, whereas low averages result from mediocre performances and a high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. Bear this in mind and be careful about reading too much into these results. However, as a general rule, decks that place above the baseline average are over-performing, and vice versa.
How far above or below that average a deck sits justifies its position on the power tiers. Decks well above baseline are undervalued, while decks well below baseline are very popular, but aren't necessarily good.
The Real Story
When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its "true" potential.
A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from the average, the more a deck under or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite of this.
We'll start with MTGO's averages:
| Deck Name | Average Points | Power Tier |
|---|---|---|
| Jeskai Energy | 2.14 | 3 |
| Kappa Weapons | 2.09 | 3 |
| UW Control | 2.06 | 3 |
| Izzet Cutter | 2.03 | 3 |
| Broodscale Combo | 2.00 | 3 |
| Tameshi Belcher | 1.92 | 2 |
| Ruby Storm | 1.90 | 1 |
| MG Etron | 1.87 | 2 |
| Domain Zoo | 1.84 | 1 |
| Grixis Reanimator | 1.83 | 3 |
| Yawgmoth | 1.82 | 2 |
| Simic Ritual | 1.82 | 3 |
| Green-Based Eldrazi | 1.81 | 1 |
| Neobrand | 1.81 | 2 |
| Goryo Blink | 1.81 | 3 |
| MB Saga | 1.81 | 3 |
| Esper Blink | 1.80 | 1 |
| Living End | 1.78 | 3 |
| Amulet Titan | 1.77 | 2 |
| Jeskai Blink | 1.75 | 1 |
| Weapons Affinity | 1.75 | 1 |
| Colorless Etron | 1.75 | 3 |
| Boros Energy | 1.74 | 1 |
| Dimir Tempo | 1.69 | 3 |
| Izzet Prowess | 1.61 | 2 |
| Baseline | 1.60 | |
| Mill | 1.47 | 3 |
| Rakdos Elementals | 1.21 | N/A |
Congratulations to Ruby Storm, as the highest placing Tier 1 deck you're MTGO Deck of December! Never thought I'd be typing that. I'd also like to point out that Esper Blink has higher average points than Jeskai Blink. This is no accident, for reasons I discussed last month.
| Deck Name | Average Points | Power Tier |
|---|---|---|
| Tribal Eldrazi | 2.25 | 3 |
| Izzet Cutter | 1.75 | 3 |
| Broodscale Combo | 1.70 | 3 |
| Green-Based Eldrazi | 1.67 | 3 |
| Yawgmoth | 1.65 | 2 |
| Izzet Prowess | 1.61 | 1 |
| Ruby Storm | 1.54 | 3 |
| UW Control | 1.54 | 3 |
| Amulet Titan | 1.50 | 1 |
| Esper Blink | 1.50 | 3 |
| Tameshi Belcher | 1.50 | 3 |
| Goryo Blink | 1.47 | 2 |
| Boros Energy | 1.44 | 1 |
| Simic Ritual | 1.44 | 3 |
| Domain Zoo | 1.43 | 1 |
| Tier 1 | 1.41 | |
| Weapons Affinity | 1.35 | 2 |
| Jeskai Blink | 1.21 | 1 |
| Colorless Etron | 1.00 | N/A |
Meanwhile, Izzet Prowess wins Paper Deck of December. This is especially impressive considering how mediocrely the deck averaged online.
Analysis
Storm being the highest averaging deck online is the headlining story of December. As predicted, Blink's prevalence drove up combo number, particularly Storm's. With Amulet Titan's Aftermath Analyst loop being too annoying to perform online (plus the chess clock issues), it's the fastest pure combo deck and can grind pretty well. The fact that it can push through a Consign to Memory or two is pretty good too.
This is part of a wider trend since Modern Horizons 3. Pure spell combo has been absent from almost all Modern metagames. Storm's tried to hang around a few times, but it never stuck. All we had in the combo space was Amulet and sometimes the latest version of Collected Company creature combo. I've repeatedly written that this was a major problem. Modern needed combo decks to reign in midrange piles, but there were issues with both the metagame and cardpool that limited combo's ability to gain traction. MH3 solved them and we finally have a good mix of combo decks in Modern.
Masking Problem
However, that's come mostly because Energy has forced out every other aggro deck except Prowess, which is somewhere between aggro-combo and its own entity. This is heavily to combo's benefit, as fast aggro is usually the best counter to combo, especially if the aggro deck has integrated disruption elements. While combo usually has an earlier kill-turn, aggro kills earlier more reliably which gives it a huge edge, especially if it can disrupt the combo without sacrificing its fundamental turn. This is why Humans was so good back in 2017-2018.
Energy is a hybrid aggro-midrange deck. It can win quickly, but it usually wins by flooding the board then out valuing the opponent over many turns. Thus, its Storm matchup is a lot worse than you'd think. Prowess being explosive makes its Storm matchup much better than Energy's, though Prowess has a worse winrate overall. Thus, combo finally being an integral part of the Modern metagame isn't really a sign of metagame health. It's symptomatic of Energy's hold over Modern.
Health Questions Answered
As I led with, December has largely answered the questions about Modern health raised in October and November. It has done so by largely agreeing with those month's conclusions about what is good. Equally importantly, the metagame share of non-Tier decks has been the lowest one. That's a really bad sign as it strongly suggests that there's no room for innovation. Non-tiered decks are where experimentation and exploration are happening. Without that, the format stagnates.
My read of the situation is that Modern is a captured metagame. It isn't solved by any means, but it is captured. The difference is that there are a lot of different decks that are viable and their relative viability changes constantly, but they tend to fall along certain lines and revolve around certain cards. Boros Energy is the driving force as its existence eliminates huge swaths of otherwise viable decks and cards.
The remaining decks are clustering around combos, Eldrazi Temple, or Ephemerate. I'd classify both Affinity and Domain Zoo as being in the combo camp. You can do what you want to an extent, but you have to pick from a pre-approved set of interactions. That's a captured metagame. A solved metagame only has a few viable decks with well-established matchups.
Modern's Questionable Health
This type of metagame isn't exactly unhealthy but it's not great either. This type of metagame is fairly similar to what we had in the early days, and a lot of players want that. However, we also didn't know that we could have dynamic, naturally evolving metagames back then. Izzet Twin was the best deck, followed by which ever deck was getting banned next, and you had to deal with it and play around them. We didn't get metagames that evolved on their own until 2016.
Given the power level we saw in 2025 and have seen so far from Lorwyn Eclipsed, nothing is going to challenge Boros Energy's hold on Modern until either there's another Modern Horizons set or something very broken gets printed on accident. Given that the Universes Beyond sets seem to be closer to Spider-Man than Lord of the Rings, I think the latter is unlikely. This means Wizards will have to ban something for Modern to move on from Energy.
If this happens, I'm torn on what should happen. Given what Wizards has said about the Analyst loop in Amulet, it's likely something's getting banned there. If Wizards wants to depower Energy again, then Ajani, Nacatl Pariah and Goblin Bombardment are the best choices as they keep Energy from being weak to control.
However, the more I think about the deck, the more I wonder if Ocelot Pride is acceptable. Guide of Souls is the headliner card in Energy, but all it does is make existing game objects better. Ocelot Pride makes game objects for no additional mana, and with the City's Blessing it makes a lot of free game objects. Making existing game objects better is good, but making lots of them for free is broken and has gotten cards banned in other formats before. We'll see what happens in February.
Financial Implications
With no competitive season until summer, the Modern singles market should be fairly quiet outside of new releases.
Lorwyn Eclipsed should sell quite well as Lorwyn is a beloved plane, but any speculative opportunity will be dictated by the available supply.
The global economic situation has limited the supply of new product the past few sets, which has led to considerable speculative opportunities. I don't know if anything's changed enough for that to impact Lorwyn Eclipsed.
The best plan is to keep your ears open.
