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Insider: MTG Stock Watch 11/30/14

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Welcome back readers! Here we are back to another MTG Stock Watch. Let's get started right away.

Penny Stocks

#1 Chalice of the Void (Mirrodin/Modern Masters) (+44.4%/33.1%) - While this one started above our usual $5 or less requirement, the fact that both versions jumped up quite a bit--and it didn't start that much higher than $5, roughly around $6.50 each--was something I felt the need to highlight.

This card attacks the Treasure Cruise decks (in both Modern and Legacy) by creating a major hurdle to their ability to function properly. If one can stick it before they land a real threat the deck is limited to trying to win via Young Pyromancer. Most of the other spells simply become pay 1 mana create a 1/1 elemental token--without any cantripping the deck becomes a lot weaker and reduces its ability to close out a game quickly or find additional threats if the first is eliminated.

Sigmund pointed out last week that foils were on the move and it appears that the regular copies have followed suit.

chalice of the void

#2 Moggcatcher (+21%) - This guy made an appearance a few weeks ago on camera at an SCG Legacy Open. It combines well in a Blood Moon/Chalice style prison deck as a way to tutor up powerful (goblin-themed) threats like Siege-Gang Commander and Krenko, while bypassing the Trinisphere/Chalice locks the deck likes to deploy. The fact that it has a single print run from an unpopular set in an unpopular block means any sort of increase in demand will likely cause a price spike due to the limited supply it already had.

moggcatcher

#3 Savage Beating (+15.3%) - As expected this is another of the short list of "cards that combo with Narset, Enlightened Master" I suggested we all keep an eye on back on 10/19/14. It's good to feel proven correct, however its highest buy price of only $2 means that even if one had gone deep, you can't unload to any stores and make any decent profit.

savage beating

#4 Aggravated Assault (+13.3%) - Another one I called on 10/19/14, we have another card perfectly slotted for Narset, Enlightened Master (though without a Sword of Feast and Famine it's a more expensive Relentless Assault).

However, looking over the graph this card was already on a steady incline before Narset was even spoiled. This is one of those solid red cards that belongs in any heavy red aggressive EDH deck and can allow players to win out of nowhere.

aggravated assault

#5 Hero of Iroas (+9.7%) - With a strong showing by Mr. Tom Ross at SCG Columbus, the U/W and UWr Heroic decks have really taken off in Standard. While they haven't done so well the past two weeks, there's still plenty of demand for the key cards and this is the only four-of rare in the deck from Theros block. The fact that it came from the weakest set in the block which had very little demand only helps further cement the current value.

Hero of Iroas

Blue Chip Stocks

Now we get to review our Legacy "blue chips".

#1 Underground Sea (-4.07%) - Unfortunately, with the recent push in U/R Delver decks in Legacy the BUG decks have seen a drop in play. The fact that Esper Stoneblade has been replaced by Jeskai Stoneblade has also caused the desire for Underground Sea to ebb.

underground sea

#2 Sneak Attack (-3.18%) - Not surprisingly a deck that needs to cast three- and four-drop spells has a difficult time surviving against a field with a ton of cheap counterspells and Wastelands/Stifles to impede mana development. Though Sneak and Show has seen a brief resurgence recently (especially with the addition of Bosejiu to the sideboard), it's still not putting up all the impressive numbers, especially compared to its utter dominance a year ago.

sneak attack

#3 Wasteland (-2.0%) - This one I must admit is actually a bit surprising. Most of the U/R Delver styles decks have become a bit inbred and are packing 3-4 Wastelands in an attempt to prey on their admittedly shaky manabases. Though it could simply be suffering from the continual downward trend from the major spike back in March/April.

wasteland

#4 Dark Confidant (-1.75%) - Not surprisingly, in a metagame infested with an 8-mana sorcery, a card that costs you life equal to CMC when revealed off the top is not likely to see a lot of play. It doesn't help that Treasure Cruise's dominance in Modern has also pushed G/B/x rock style decks to Tier 1.5, as Dark Confidant style decks are usually complimented with black discard spells which don't prove that powerful when the opponent can undo three of them with a simple topdeck.

dark confidant

#5 Tundra (-1.62%) - With the success of the Jeskai Stoneblade decks at GP New Jersey, one would expect one of the key lands (Tundra) to be on a positive trend, but even the third most powerful dual land can't keep up with the previous high price point. We see a continued negative slide downward implying that later is a better time to pick them up rather than sooner.

The SCG announcement to no longer always have Legacy opens on Sundays may also push some people away from the format. However, it's important to keep in mind that GP NJ was the 3rd largest GP ever, so it's hard to make an argument that Legacy is a dying format when so many people are willing to travel from all over simply to enjoy it.

tundra

Value Stocks

Reviewing the graphs of the Khans fetchlands it appears that they have finally begun to plateau. At the least they are dropping at such a low rate now that it's worth moving into them, as the money lost by not getting them at the absolute bottom is far less than the chance that you miss the bottom pricing anyways (in fact both Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are actually trending upward again). I have pulled all extra copies out of my trade binder and moved them into my "hold" binder as I don't want to trade them away at their current value, but would be more than happy to pick them up at it.

polluted delta

flooded strand

windswept heath

wooded foothills

bloodstained mire

Growth Stocks

Last, but not least, we come to our sealed product review. We see a huge drop in Worldwake, which isn't a huge surprise as the marquee card of the set (Jace, the Mind Sculptor) has been on a steady decline since June/July of this year. The rise of U/R Delver and Burn decks in Legacy has pushed out legacy's favorite control win condition.

On the other hand we see a nice increase in New Phyrexia, with a nice rise in Gitaxian Probes (thanks to the same blue-red decks), along with a host of other "goodies" like Elesh Norn and Karn Liberated, it's not a big surprise that New Phyrexia is getting some love from collectors and old time drafters. It's important to note that Mirrodin Besieged had zero boxes sold between the last time we checked prices and this one, implying that demand for it has dropped very low.

Week of 11/30/14

Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent New Average Average comparison
Innistrad $196.00 $224.00 $222.00 $205.25 $211.81 4.22%
Dark Ascension $110.00 $99.99 $97.95 $89.00 $99.24 1.58%
Avacyn Restored $128.75 $129.99 $129.99 $129.99 $129.68 -5.25%
Scars of Mirrodin $198.00 $149.50 $175.00 $185.95 $177.11 8.48%
Mirrodin Besieged $167.00 $168.45 $169.50 $142.75 $161.93 0.00%
New Phyrexia $305.00 $315.00 $265.00 $299.99 $296.25 13.71%
Zendikar $539.99 $538.99 $539.99 $441.00 $514.99 7.04%
Worldwake $515.91 $537.05 $656.00 $660.00 $592.24 -18.49%
Rise of the Eldrazi $550.00 $599.99 $579.99 $467.00 $549.25 6.37%

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