Hopefully you all received Doug Linn’s e-mail sent to Insiders regarding the Legacy Artifact Stompy deck that made it to the Finals of SCG: Indianapolis (if you didn’t you should figure out why). Today I’m going to further examine the deck, the cards in it Doug pointed out, what’s happened to those cards since then, and where it might go from here.
But maybe you didn’t get the e-mail in time to really make a move on it. Did you know Doug also posted the same message in the forums more than a week ago? Here’s the post in question.
“I am posting this on the off chance that you guys have cards for Legacy Welder MUD that you are considering trading.
I would suggest waiting until AFTER SCG: Indianapolis to trade off the following:
City of Traders lololol
I bring this up because a friend has cooked up a very reasonable welder MUD deck for Legacy that has been putting up very good results. He will be bringing it to Indy on the 5th. I'm sure you can picture what would happen if Grim Monolith popped up in a T4 of that tournament.
I'm not endorsing buying any of these cards right now, but I wouldn't trade them away if I had them until after that date or unless I was getting a real sweetie of a deal.”
That was posted on Jan. 29, and gave everyone ample time to get ahead on this. But if you are late to the party, don’t worry, there’s still money to be made.
For reference, the decklist I’ll be referring to can be found here.
For today’s article, I’m going to focus on the cards Doug pointed out as worth holding on to. I’ll be using prices from BlackLotusProject.com unless I specify otherwise.
This card was already heavily played in Legacy, and I don’t think adding one more deck is going to do much to its price. BLP shows its price has been static since the tournament, and I don’t expect that to change. However, this card has been a steady gainer in the last year, and I would try to pick them up in trades if you can get them from older players.
I think there’s some opportunity with this card. The BLP price on it is $5.57, whereas the SCG price is $5.99 (and they’re sold out). SCG prices are typically much, much higher than BLP, so I see them raising their price when they get more in stock. I would pick them up in trades now before SCG updates their price and people will value it at that. Also, looking at City of Traitors, we see that there is growing demand for lands that make two mana, so I think these are a pretty safe pick-up at this point. The City has gone up more than a dollar on Ebay in the last two months, even without seeing much play.
The best part about these two lands is that they aren’t specific to the MUD deck (I assume I’m just an idiot for not knowing what that stands for). This means that even if the deck doesn’t begin to show strong results the lands might continue to tick up in value anyway.
Now that we’re getting into the cards specific to the MUD deck, let’s start with the big one.
As Necrite98 pointed out in the forums, SCG sold 18 of their 36 Monoliths overnight after the deck’s performance. The card has already started to climb on BLP, up more than a dollar since Sunday.
But it’s not too late to jump on this. If the deck catches on, this card is going to be a part of it and it’s price is going to continue to climb. You still have a window to get these from people at $15 apiece and hold onto them while they appreciate. This (and the lands) are the best investments into this deck, as they are vital to it and serve a greater number of strategies anyway.
This card hasn’t moved at all since Sunday, but it is up solidly in the last month and has doubled in price in the last year and a half. The only conclusion I can reach is that it was bought up when rumors began to swirl regarding a return to Mirrodin. That or there’s a Vintage factor involved, which I wouldn’t know because I don’t follow the format. Either way, this card is very narrow within the MUD deck and I wouldn’t recommend buying now, since it’s the highest it’s ever been. I do think you should try to pick these up in trades, because most people don’t know the card has been on the rise.
The Welder has sold out on SCG at $7.99 and has begun a rise on BLP. With a lower starting price, the Welder is a good pickup for a few reasons. First off, there’s the MUD deck. Secondly, there’s the fact that we have another set of power-creeping artifacts to come before we leave Mirrodin, so there’s another round of cards coming that might further break it.
While the Welder’s price has fluctuated, it’s not been extreme, so this is a relatively safe investment to make.
That covers it for the cards Doug initially pointed out. As long as you don’t pay inflated prices, they are all relatively safe pickups and a few (mostly Monolith) have the potential to skyrocket.
Now, let’s move on to the more recent cards that appeared in the deck.
I really thought the Golem could be broken before Mirrodin came out and it was clear that it just wasn’t going to be. Maybe that changes with the third set, but we’re not there yet. As far as the MUD deck goes, this card isn’t going to do much because it’s plentifully available as far as Legacy cards go.
With that said, this is nearly a dollar-bin rare, so I’m going to be angling to pick these up as throw-ins in trades. Cards from Worldwake have proven to have a higher ceiling than most other sets (see Stoneforge Mystic), so the Golem is practically no-risk and might see a modest increase if it becomes viable in Standard in addition to Legacy. What will be in higher demand due to the nature of Legacy is foils of this card, so if you go for it, that’s the route I suggest.
See above. Foils are the way to go, though there’s nothing at this time making it particularly appealing.
This deck isn’t going to affect the Opal much, though it does represent another home for it in the Legacy metagame. Due to this and the card’s inherent moxy, it is worth picking up as the price drops, because after experiencing the initial rotation drop, it’s going to hold its value.
What this teaches us
This is the first time since the banning of Survival of the Fittest that we’ve seen a truly innovative Legacy deck finish so well. The effect on prices hasn’t been huge, but it’s been there. I predict this effect to increase as we move forward in the future and the SCG Opens and tournaments like it expand.
Opens are nowhere near the level of impact a Pro Tour carries, but it is growing. Even a year ago very few people followed SCG events and immediately bought cards because of it. Now we have more and more people showing up at the tournaments, bigger prizes and Adrian Sullivan talking like he’s a financial expert while broadcasting.
What this means is that you will need to be even more on your game to stay ahead of the curve. Rather than GPs and PTs every month that you have to keep track of, you have an event basically every other week that can affect prices of cards. I don’t see Opens getting any smaller anytime soon, and as the prize pool increases, so does the number of players traveling for these tournaments and investing in the latest tech.
Bonus – Standard pick up
While I focused on the Legacy portion of the tournament, the breakout deck from the Standard side was Kuldotha Red. I’ll tell you that I’ve bought a few playsets of Contested War Zone, since that card is apparently the business in the deck. It’s cheap (under $2) on Ebay, but sold out at $5 apiece on SCG. I was able to get 8 at $1.91 apiece, and I suggest picking them up at $3 or less in trades.
The card could really shoot up if the deck performs well at the next Pro Tour, but after the last Open I suspect most pros will pack a ton of hate for the deck and keep its numbers down. But it will be a strong FNM deck and PTQ choice as we move into Standard season, making it a reasonable pickup now.
That’s it for this week, let me know what you think in the comments!
@Chosler88 on Twitter