I wanted to start this by saying how much it sucks that I had to miss SCG Open LA. I was busy this past weekend and Just couldn't make it out, sorry to those I was hoping to see. Regardless, there is still a ton of great things going on right now in the financial MTG world, so lets jump into that!
Alright, so I gave it a little while to sit there, but I want to talk about the updates to the SCG buy list prices for Legacy and Vintage. This is actually a huge deal, because now it presents a few interesting scenarios that we should consider.
First, there is the possibility that this is going to inflate price to a point where there is a format "bubble burst" as far as prices go. This is a legitimate concern, but not probable, lets take a look at why.
- Legacy is exploding in popularity. The numbers of attendees going up almost every week in every Open Series across the country already shows this. The format is growing by the week, and with that so is the demand.
- The format is what you make of it. You can spend an absurd amount of money getting into it, or you can go with more more "budget" options of Goblins and Merfolk, both very good options as they both see good results in a diverse metagame. No matter how the meta has shifted, patient Goblin and Merfolk players have always had a decent shot at doing well.
- With the lowest bar of entry on par with the price of most tier 1 standard decks, players are finding it to be more financially secure to get into legacy. Personally I dislike how my standard and extended staples have a shelf life on them. For legacy staples this is very rarely the case, with the exception being bannings. This is the reason I've shifted most of my assets into legacy, its a much stronger long term investment.
Those are the three main reasons why I doubt the new price hike in legacy cards will see a falling out. There are counter arguments to all of them of course, though for the most part none of them that I've heard have the same strength as the reasons why the bubble won't break.
So what do you try to get if you're just getting into the legacy market? This is a hard question to answer, since it depends on what you have access to locally, but I would say that common and uncommon staples are the place to start. Those cards include but are not limited to:
Common & uncommon Merfolk cards (example here)
Common & uncommon Goblin cards (example here)
Common & Uncommon Elf cards (example here)
There are many others as well and some will not be as profitable as others, but all of the singles I listed there have gained an average of 15% over the past 6 months. I listed the three tribes in terms of investment strength. Elves has a sporadic showing while Merfolk is almost always found in the top 16.
I've read the comments on Stu Somers article, Reaction to SCG Buylist, and I am rather surprised that people think this is actually going to cause the format to be destroyed. One of the comments I really liked however was this one from QS member Wade:
"...I agree with the idea of a Master's set that includes all that type of stuff. Make it like 20 packs per box and $8-10 per pack with 6 cards in a pack. Something like that. "Oh crap I spent $10 for a pack and only got a Dark Confidant, DARN". Or "Score Force of Will. There has to be a way to do something like this."
This is a truly viable option that would help the price of anything not on the reserved list drop. Yes it would cause an inflation of reserved list cards but I believe that we can all agree that until recently, lands have been the majority of a decks price. Now you're looking at $19.99 Aether Vial from SCG and CFB, and Sensei's Diving Top between $14.99 and $19.99. A masters set being released will keep prices under control for a large majority of the staples in the format, and would address the current cries of "the bar for entry is too high!" which is also false, but at least then people would stop complaining as much.
I've given a lot of advice on pick-up's today, so I'm going to point out some noticeable price watches.
Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon has risen back to $11.99 on SCG, and $10.99 on CFB, a gain of about $1.50 over the weekend. If you have them, hold onto them as I expect its play to go up after this weekend. If you can trade them away at $15+ in value, then do so.
Phyrexian Vatmother is a good trade item at this point, and are able to be bought for $1.49 on SCG and $0.99 on CFB. You can easily trade them for $2.50-$3.00, and are good easy money. If you don't have them on hand, consider spending a few dollars to pick some up. As a rare they will have a tough time breaking the ceiling on price above $5, but continued success of the infect deck could do it.
Phyexian Crusader ticked up to $6.99, and can easily go higher. All of the Phyrexian affiliated cards can easily gain a boost due to the news of the new set being New Phyrexia, and is a good piece of news to keep in mind when trading.
Mirran Crusader is also up to $6.99 on SCG, and it should be noted that if the infect deck continues to do well, it could easily become an in demand card. The promotional one is only a dollar more, and could provide much more than a dollar in value for trading purposes.
That's all for this week,
@MTGstephenmoss on twitter