Q: Where do you see Bonfire in 3 months? 6 months? 2 years/long-term?
- Daniel from Halifax, Nova Scotia
Kelly: Bonfire of the Damned is a card like none I have ever seen, and I don't think it has a cent of downside. After it leaves Standard, it will still see play in other formats. There's no telling what will happen after it leaves Standard, since the metagames change frequently, but my inclination is that this is a "forever card".
Q: What do you think about Drogskol Reaver as a possible alternative to titans after rotation? Do you see Tidehollow Sculler making a significant jump in the near future?
- Deven from Michigan
Kelly: Drogskol Reaver is a very large creature that has a massive impact on the board, but the 7 mana cost is very prohibitive. It doesn't effect the board beyond being a large blocker when it comes down, so it's certainly not on par with the titans. If you can get an attack through, you're in good shape, but there's no guarantee you'll even be able to resolve a 7-drop, let alone cast one. It's a fine pickup if you can get them cheap, but I have no specific goals to acquire many. I see no specific reason for Tidehollow Sculler to jump in price, and it's only an uncommon. The Zombie tribe is relevant, but not enough to make him Modern-relevant. He might be a dollar uncommon at some point but it's not something I'm excited about right now.
Q: Wolfir jumped from $1 to $10 overnight and, while good, is only a rare and is in a precon. Thundermaw Hellkite was selling for $18 but is now on buylists for $17 and hasn't even made a decklist. Would he be a 4x, 2x, or a bench player?
PS: How much weight have you lost Kelly? Good job man.
Kelly: Thundermaw Hellkite is a card with 5+ CMC that can, and likely will, have a huge impact on the game. The cost-to-power ratio is insane, and the combination of haste and the 'tap' ability ensures you're going to get in for 5 unblocked. I have to wonder if the 1 damage part has to do with Lingering Souls, and I'm going to guess that it does. While the Lingering Souls decks have plenty of ways to pump the tokens, at least this gives red decks another weapon against the card advantage engine. Unless Thundermaw Hellkite sees ZERO play, which seems very unlikely to me, I think he'll be around $20 for a while.
He's in good company with other red cards right now - like Bonfire - and since you asked this question he's gone up in price. It seems like you can't find them for under $20 right now. Upside? Not on a $20 mythic, and even if there was upside I wouldn't try to get it. If you need a set to play, just get it. This is not a card to play upside gamble with.
As far as my weight loss, the short answer is "somewhere between 60 and 70 lbs". Check out my new venture, www.sleekgeekblog.com, to learn more.
Q: On the topic of titans needing a replacement after M13 rotates, how do you feel about Wolfir Silverheart?
- Jake Traut
Kelly: Wolfir Silverheart had its time. The removal in Standard is way better than the removal in Block, where it was non-existent. It shot up to around 10, and then stabilized around 4, which is usually how these crazy jumps happen. I don't think there's upside past $4, and it's in a premade deck which just adds to the supply. Standard decks aren't really using him because of the abundance of reasonable removal.
This Week’s Winner:
Q: What do you think about Goryo's Vengeance in Modern? The reanimator deck has been hyped quite a bit, and you can pull back an Emrakul with it. Along with that, is there room to grow with Through the Breach as well?
Kelly: Goryo's Vengeance has been price-adjusted for a while. It used to be a < $1 rare, but the popularity of Modern and some usage here and there has pushed the price up to the $3 range. I don't like to play upside on cards that have already seen a bump, but I'd keep an eye on the results of GP Columbus this weekend since Modern is the format. The card has always had potential but has not really had a chance to live up to said potential.
Through the Breach is in the same boat. It used to be dirt-cheap but has been price-adjusted as well, still selling for $5 or so. In short, I wouldn't play upside on these unless there's an immediate gain to be made in the wake of a particular event.
Q: What's the window look like for the reprinting of the Shock Lands now that the guilds have been released? Is there value to be had with holding the second set since they'll see some Modern play?
- Alan W.
Kelly: If they get reprinted, they'll be relevant in Standard and that will, of course, raise demand alongside with the supply. Although it seems likely, it's impossible to speculate if they'll reprint or not at this point. It's entirely possible that they print one set of Shocks in the first set, one in the second, but that doesn't seem like something they'd do. I see no upside in the Shock Lands either way and wouldn't want to guess whether they'll get reprinted or not.