You may not realize this (or maybe you do), but Modern PTQ season ends soon. And by soon, I mean now. Like right now.
Okay, there may or may not have been some hyperbole there, but I hope I demonstrated my point. For all intents and purposes, Modern season is practically over. Sure, retail prices may not yet reflect this, but if buylists don't they will very soon.
That means it's time to sell out of Modern stock, if you haven't already. Now I’m not going to go through every card that could possibly be in Modern Masters and tell you to sell it, because I’m not sure an exhaustive list is all that helpful considering the multitude of cards that could be in the set. That said, there are a few I want to highlight, because I think that even if they don’t show up, Modern Masters reprints may not be all that far off.
But this list doesn't just encompass Modern. There are a few Standard commodities I think are going to continue dropping, and I want to highlight those as well. I’ll also highlight what I think you should be turning these cards into, and I’m planning an exhaustive Modern pickup list in the next few weeks.
So let’s get started.
Serum Visions & Sleight of Hand
Both of these are worth more than a few dollars, a level rarely seen for commons, so I think it’s probably best to move them. I’m not sure if either or both will be in Modern Masters, but there are a few reasons I don’t think they can go much higher.
The first is that the players who want to play with these already have them. I understand you can say this about basically anything. But these are pretty much only played in two decks in Modern, and Storm is basically dead at this point, so that’s another strike against them.
Add in the possibility of a Modern Masters reprint and I think you should clear all of these out. If you want some place to put the same money I suggest Street Wraith. The prices are similar, but Wraith is still trending upward and seems way less likely to appear in Modern Masters than the other pair of cards.
Azusa, Lost but Seeking
The recent spike on this to $15 screams mass buyout. Sure it’s a card in one Modern deck and is an EDH favorite, but the recent run-up is a product of hype and not much else. I think this will settle back higher than it started, but it seems like something that’s probably peaked for the time being.
Not only am I fairly certain this will be in Modern Masters since it’s been a Modern staple since the inception of the format, but even aside from that this may be overpriced.
Right now it’s sitting at the same price as was when it was an auto four-of in Jund. Since then, not only has Jund become less ubiquitous but Finks is not an automatic inclusion any more. That’s a recipe for a card that will be cheaper in six months than it is now.
I know this is an obvious one, but I wanted to include it because it’s a good time to check in on the price. Reckoner, after jumping to $25, is already all the way back down to $19 and dropping fast.
It amazes me, but people were arguing when this passed $20 the first time around that it was there to stay. This is one of those situations we'll look back at in six months when it’s $10-15 and everyone will say “of course it wouldn’t stay $25.” But there have been plenty of people who told me that it would, so it just goes to show not everyone is as savvy on supply and demand issues as we are.
Speaking of overpriced new cards, the shocks from the second set are running significantly higher than their RtR counterparts. When I do come across Gatecrash shocks I’m doing my best to turn them into RtR ones, which I’m still stocking up on in trade at the $7-8 price you get them at. I’ll repeat it again, they may fall a little bit more due to Dragon’s Maze, but that’s not going to stop me from acquiring these because I expect they’ll be $10+ in a year and maybe even more.
Gatecrash shocks, on the other hand, are overpriced at the moment. I don’t advise getting into these until the price settles down to roughly the same level as RtR, even if that takes a few more months.
Champion of the Parish
This is one of those cards where the line between hold and sell was really close. I really liked them a few months back at the $4 or so you could acquire them at. Since then the Mid TCG price hasn’t risen as much as I expected despite the card seeing a ton of play, but the retail price from a few other places has gone to $8. I took this as an opportunity to out mine at $5-6 in cash to a local store.
With the event deck putting even more copies of this onto the market I think the ceiling is near at hand if not already reached. After winning SCG events and a Pro Tour, the hype on Champion can’t get any bigger, so now’s a good time to move out.
There are a few other talked-about cards I don’t have any particular opinion on yet and will wait a bit longer (like Thundermaw Hellkite, which was a sell a month or two back when it topped out but now has settled.) But I know people new to the trading game, even if they know when to buy, often have difficultly knowing when to sell.
I figured a simple article like this explaining what I’m trying to move out is a step in the right direction. You can make just as much money by knowing when to get out of something as you can by knowing when to get in.
Thanks for reading,
@Chosler88 on Twitter