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Insider: MM — Mystery and Misery

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Last week we covered the mythics reprinted in MM that we should be on the look out for. This week we will cover all the rares and uncommons (yes uncommons!) that might be of interest for some long-term profits. But before we go through our list, we want to comment on a few oddities occurring right now with MM drafts online.

As we've mentioned in the past, major bot owners seem to have adopted much more aggressive buying strategies lately. We are likely witnessing such behaviours right now, since some of the most important reprinted cards are picking up value. Namely, Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf and Vendilion Clique have not seen any price decreases.

In fact, Tarmo has seen an increase in price of about 12 tix. During the first 24 hours of drafting, copies could be bought at around $39, and there has been a steady increase in price ever since, all the way up to $52, apparently unrelated to the amount of drafts firing on Saturday or Sunday. Given the astonishing plummeting in value of other less important rares and mythics in the set, it seems like the major bot chains have targeted these three cards (at least) in the hope of loading up tons of copies for next season, probably in anticipation of further price increases.

The prices of the other cards we have covered has melted at some crazy speeds. So much in fact that we started decreasing our own buy prices very rapidly. We've corrected the buy prices, but we still remain confused as to the best strategy from now on. In our article this week, we've adjusted our predictions accordingly, but we can't predict with precision when the price fall will come to a halt. We certainly advocate that you use our price list with caution, because right now, the authors of this article are having numerous headaches trying to figure things out!

So, without further ado, it's time to cover a lot of ground!

Rares:

Kataki, War's Wage

We particularly like this spec since Affinity should see increased play with Arcbound Ravager and Blinkmoth Nexus becoming more affordable and the new legendary rule for Mox Opal. This means that artifact hate will be much needed and Kataki has always been a good sideboard card against Affinity. This card's average is 9.84 and it has seen a peek at 18.75 last season! We can already buy some at 1 ticket per copy, and we'll keep buying in this range over the next few weeks. The card might hit 10 tix again! But even if it goes to the 3-4 range it’s still a good buy.

Cryptic Command

This card needs little introduction. It’s the main card for so many decks and has fast become a key staple of Modern. We don’t know how far it will go, but we think that it will be a 10-15 ticket card again which means that anything around 8 should be okay. Still, since it’s a rare, you might want to wait a bit since it could drop to 5-6 tix during this month. We bought some at 6-7 already.

Gifts Ungiven

The future of this card is unknown. The coming of Scavenging Ooze in M14 suggests that Gifts decks might have a harder time. Still, even with Deathrite Shamans everywhere, quite a few decks run Gifts Ungiven, so why wouldn't they play it with Ooze around? The card normally averages 6 tix and saw peaks at 12. Try to buy it around 2. Well, that's what we're doing currently. Don’t forget it’s a four-of in many lists.

Glen Elendra Archmage

This card averages 10 tix and has seen peaks around 20 last season! But with a reprint just before MM, the card will go down by a lot. We think that you might be able to buy around 2. It can't go much lower than this in the long run.

Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

This card is easy to buy around 1-1.5 tix and will certainly hit 3-4 again. With Mutavault's reprint in M14, Merfolk should make an appearance (the deck will be so much cheaper) and Kira is part of almost every list. At 1.00 it’s a safe buy.

Pact of Negation

The card is played in Legacy and it could see play in Modern too. From our point of view, it is really underplayed in Modern right now. The card is usually worth 5 to 6 tix and you can buy it easily at 1-2 now. It will be 4-5 tix again.

Bridge from Below

A Legacy staple, and we can’t wait for a Modern dredge deck with Bridge. Try to buy it for 1 ticket. Even at 1.5, it feels like a sound investment, and we're confident it will be worth 4-5 tix again eventually.

Blood Moon

Blood Moon is such a great card in Modern because of all the nonbasic lands flying around. Against many decks, a resolved Blood Moon means gg. The card was worth 17 tix even after being printed twice. With an average of 6, we think that anything in the 2-3 ticket zone is good.

Life from the Loam

Since it has been printed four times, it might be easier to get them. With an average of 3.5, anything in the 1-1.5 ticket range is a perfect buy. Its price will get back to 4 again this year. Don’t forget it's also a staple in Legacy and it punishes Jund decks, which are still gaining in popularity.

Summoner's Pact

Believe it or not, this card was 14 tix not so long ago! The Elves frenzy in Modern exists. Now, with Gaea's Cradle and the new legendary rule, it might also see some Legacy play! It is a bit too high now, but we might see it around 1-2. If so, it will become a good target.

Maelstrom Pulse

Already printed twice, never under 3.5, almost always around 5-6 tix and with a peak around 10. This is a buy at 1.5-2. Pulse is played both in Legacy and Modern and it is usually played in Jund, which is the most popular deck. Since we got reprints of both Bob and Tarmogoyf, Jund will be more popular than ever (price of entry was a big limiting factor here).

Arcbound Ravager

This is a four-of in Affinity decks, and everyone says that it will be for sure a tier-one deck. The same reasoning applies here as with Kataki. Ravager has never been under 5.6 and we can already buy copies at around 3-4 as we're writing the article. With an average of 11, we think that it is already a safe buy, but we could see it drop as low as 2-3 tix. Buy lots of them!

Blinkmoth Nexus

Another four-of in Affinity. Seems like the deck will be significantly cheaper now. Its average price was 5 and the peak was around 11. We think that if you can find them around 2 tix, it will represent an excellent opportunity. We can already buy some at 2-3 now. Being so early in the MM month, we'll wait and see if it drops as low as 1.5 or so. If it does, we will go fairly deep on this spec.

Chalice of the Void

One of the craziest things I’ve seen during the release is people selling this at 1 ticket. It has never been worth less than 1.8 before, while the peak has been around 10. It's also both Legacy and Modern playable (underplayed from our point of view), so overall it seems like a solid card. Last week's Legacy SCG Open was won by a Tezz deck containing four Chalice. Buy everything you can find at 1-1.5, or even at 2 if the market gets dry.

Engineered Explosives

The card was worth 28 a few months ago (you did not misread, 28!) For those who still think it’s just another Ratchet Bomb, you might have not played the card. It’s both a Legacy and a Modern staple. We bought a lot at 9 already, but as we told you, release was crazy and we sold a lot at 12 to hotlistbot (20-33% ROI in one night is way too much to hold from selling). As we are writing this article, you can now buy them around 4! You should wait, as the card might not have reached the bottom. But keep an eye on it, the card will go up in few months.

Glimmervoid

Did I mention that Affinity should be played a lot? Well, this is another card being played as a two- or three-of in the deck. Anything around 2 is a good buy. You can now buy them for less than that. The card should be around 3-4 again in season.

Figure, Knight of the Reliquary, Vial, Lotus Bloom & City of Brass

We put all these cards together because they are all easy to buy around 1 ticket. None of these cards are heavily played in Modern, and with the exception of Knight and Vial, not in Legacy either. This limits their upside in the short term. We think that they will represent good buying opportunities at around 0.5, but that you should stay away otherwise.

Uncommons

Finally, let's look at some key uncommons.

Kitchen Finks: The card was printed twice and still reached the 7-8 range last season. It’s played in Pod decks, U/W Control and some midrange decks. Many players think it won't be as good with the Ooze coming in M14, but we had Deathrite Shamans all over the format this season and it was still well played. We can buy them at around 1 now. Anything below that price seems like a good buy. It’s reasonable to think it will be 2-3 tix again next year.

Eternal Witness: Wow, the card was printed like six times and it still sits around 6. We already bought lots of them for 1 ticket each. During the first night of the release, we were even able to use pricing discrepancies between Goatbots and hotlistbot, buying at 3 and flipping them on hotlist at 5.4. (Man this release was crazy!)

Since it’s an uncommon, it’s hard to say how low it can go, but watch for the bottom here and grab lots of them. A card that has been printed six times and that still reaches 6 tix will probably be able to hit at least 3-4 again. If you can round your trades with them, it would be perfect.

Path to Exile: The best removal in the format. A four-of in a great number of decks. This is also a card that’s been printed often and it still reaches 4-6 when we get in season. Everything around is 0.5-1 a good buy.

Spell Snare, Slaughter Pact & Tombstalker: Yeah, we know that Stalker and Pact are not uncommons, they are rares. We suggest that you grab these cards to round up your trades. Try to get them for 0.5 or less, they will all be worth 1 or more in the near future.

The Final Word

So that’s it for this week folks. The price variations were much greater than what we had expected. Now that the first weekend is over, we certainly feel like things will stabilize a bit. If you have money to invest, it’s now or never! This month will be a buying frenzy for us, that's for sure. We hope that you enjoyed the article and we are looking for your comments or for other cards we might have missed.

12 thoughts on “Insider: MM — Mystery and Misery

  1. well, not everything, but all the things mentionned there will go up I’m sure…I think the best time migth be this weekend. There will be plenty of drafting. Try to go in the range we mentionned…There are weird cases now of cards that are higher than average even if the suppply is bigger. The price might go down once poeple realize that after all, modern season is far from the beginning.

    1. Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like there may be a huge spike in MMA drafting this weekend during the GP? People watch it on the stream and get excited and go play it? If this is true, maybe the time to buy would be early next week when the hype from the GP has died down and people cash in their rares.

  2. I particularly like the small/mid range prices. Great cards with very very low price right now and with great potential in profit (potential in game is not to demonstrate anymore)

    I top choices would be: Gifts Ungiven, Kataki, Blood Moon, Chalice of the Void, Figure of Destiny.

    Another card you did not mentioned and that I was paying attention for a while now is Manamorphose. This card (a common!) went up to 2+ Tix several time, and appear in every combo deck that use free spells, storm, draw/cycling…

    It is an unco in MM. I don’t know how many copies you would need to significantly decrease its price by 2, and that will still be 1+ Tix card in high modern season.

    It can be found at .35Tix now.

  3. ty for comments…

    Yeah I do think storm deck will be back in modern…I saw few list in dailies and last modern premier was won by a storm deck. The deck is good rigth now, because there is few hate card and it,s unexpected…

    About figure of destiny, I don’t know…if zoo can do it again, I guess maybe, but if you can buy at really low cost now, it for sure will rebound.

  4. You mention that prices of bob and goyf haven’t decreased and then while discussing maelstrom pulse write that Jund cards should increase in popularity due to bob and goyf reprints causing price decreases – am I missing something? Do you expect prices on the three biggest (bob, goyf, clique) to come down before the season begins?

    1. To be honest, that part of the article was written before we could witness such a price increase, instead of a decline. We changed the intro. In theory we all expected a price weakness for Bob, Clique and Tarmo. As I said in the article, I’m personnally convinced it’s not a matter of having tons of players trying to complete their sets at the same time. Rather, I’m pretty sure major bot chains are competing to grab as many copies as possible, to maximize their profits in-season.Pretty much the same strategy we witnessed with Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn for paper cards, when the market got wiped out completely over a single week-end, almost intanstly doubling their price.

      1. I agree with the idea that it looks like the bots are doing most of the buying. I also think it’s quite possible that once they get their fill, we’ll see prices drifting down over the summer. It’s strange to see a non redeemable set get drafted so much and then prices increase. Something has got to give eventually, unless I am seriously underestimating interest in Modern constructed.

  5. with what we see now, I don’t think the price of bob and goyf will go down that much…Still, a lot of poeple will hold a playset now. In addition to that, the price of goyf at 50 is almost 20-25 Under it’s price during season so its 33% off right now wich is not bad.

    The weirdest thing is that a lot of card are now over their average price and poeple still buys them like it was the best price they ever saw. Bob is not a bad buy at 18, but I have seen him a lot Under 18 during off season….

  6. Thanks, Drafting MMA has been insane. I did do a fun rare draft (first pick doubleing season went thalids insane.) rare drafted 15 rares! But not sure if theres any value in it.

  7. the thing Matt is that Clique, Bob and tarmo are all legacy staples too…that’s why they are the only cards that never stops going up. For the rest, price went down, but everything seems to have stabilized now

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