Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Hi everyone! We have just had our first weekend of tournament results with Theros added to the mix and Innistrad/M13 kicked out of Standard. This article is only one of a million things I have to do this week before I move so I am going to jump right into my thoughts for the week.
Initial Impressions
1) They sure did paint the town Red this weekend in Worcester, didn't they? Mono-Red won the whole tournament, but I think the more interesting point was Owen Turtenwald also playing Mono-Red. We have to be aware that he is testing for a Pro Tour and is unlikely to play any of his team's real decks, but he had the option of going with the "known" quantities UW or Mono-White, but choose Mono-Red instead.
2) The second thing we can take away from the Mono-Red lists from the T8 and most of the T16 is that very few played Boros Reckoner. Boros Reckoner was seen more in the G/R type decks and not the aggressive Red decks like previously. The combinations of Firefist Striker and Goblin Shortcutter help negate the opponent's Boros Reckoner, especially in the mirror match. I feel like there was a lot less Reckoner in the top decks than was expected. Maybe Boros Reckoner won't have the huge surge that everyone is expecting, I know I haven't been aggressively buying in.
3) The card that WAS all over the T8 was Jace, Architect of Thought. Jace experienced a late week surge in price around 15%, and according to Twitter today, saw another jump up to the low $20s. I have been telling people to buy-in aggressively and this is why. Another solid week of results for Jace and I think we could see $30+ before the Pro Tour. I would want to sell before the Pro Tour if the results are excellent in Cleveland. If they are not, I think waiting for after the Pro Tour is the right play.
4)Thoughtseize saw some sideboard play in the Esper decks in the T8. I think this is where we are going to see Thoughtseize hang out for the time being. The format is just far too aggressive to make [cardThoughtseize[/card] a maindeck card. If there is a spike to be had with this card, it will have to be around Modern season and unlikely during Standard unless a drastic change in the metagame occurs.
5) Last card I want to touch on this week is Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver. A lot of people wrote this card off at the beginning as being mostly unplayable, but if you remember to my article a couple weeks ago, I recommended getting on board with it. It has gone up nearly 66% over the weekend from $15 to $25.
6) Last of the main archetypes in the T8 were the G/R and Naya aggressive decks. Both used Domri (sound familiar to those who follow me on twitter?) and Chandra with Xenagos nowhere to be found. Ruric Thar, the Unbowed is potentially a great pick up in the short term. It saw sideboard play in both decks and if the metagame continues to be balanced by Mono-Red on one end and Control on the other, Ruric Thar, the Unbowed is in a great place to see some gains.
7) Some cards that didn't see play that everyone was hyping was the God Cards and Voice of Resurgence. Either the metagame won't allow something like Voice of Resurgence to dominate like it did previously, or not enough time to brew with like the God Cards. I would keep an eye out for any metagame shifts to see if any of these cards can sneak into the T8 in the future.
That is it for me this week. I have to go prepare for interview 1 of 2 this week and get ready to move at the end of the week. I will be able to check comments throughout the week so let me know if I missed anything or if you just liked it! Thanks!
-Stu
www.twitter.com/ssomers55
Is this really insider material? Anyone who was paying attention this weekend should already know this, if you didn’t pay attention chances are you don’t care about finance.
Some people like myself have very active lifestyles and jobs. I do not have time the time to do all the stuff in finance I would like. Information like this is saves me time and also helps compare notes with like minded people. Time is a asset I am especially short on.
seconded
I do not see your point… I found out the article a pretty useful wrap up.
Its just not getting information that is news breaking. It is recapping a weekend, analyzing the trends, and figuring out what to do next. My job is not to spoon feed people to give them an idea how to analyze on their own come to their own conclusions.
Which God cards do you have your eyes on? I find it hard to believe that 0 of them will be good. At least with the Core Set Titans cycle, the metagame shifted sufficient to give every Titan a day of glory (for Prime Time it was more like a year of glory). Could the God cards experience the same trends once the metagame matures?
I’m playtesting a B/W deck that uses Obzedat, Blood Baron, Desecration Demon, Alms Beast, Lifebain Zombie, and Erebos (as well as the Whip)..and it did very well. My only loss was due to mana problems and the deck is quite strong. I really like Erebos in the upcoming environment.
I’ve been aggressively trading for Heliod as I feel that:
1) He’s still at a price where it’s possible to get in on him cheap
2) He’s the only god that can win a game without help
Just my 0.2c
I actually have 3x Heliod’s as well…I’m in agreement. Heliod and Erebos have a lot going for them..one provides threats, one provides card advantage.
I think people were just lazy this weekend, afraid to make the first move. God cards also very bad against a deck like Mono-red where they do not give you time to set up your card to do the work you want it to.
That said, I think we might not see them until the midrange decks start to develop, and even then, we might need to wait for that meta to settle down
Selesnya Aggro used to be a good counter to RDW in Return to Ravnica block. Fanatic of Mogis came and pretty much changed everything. If you don’t play removal, Fanatic is at least 6-7 damage, and in a stalled board it can deal 10-12 damage all by itself.
I expect to see more G/W in the future since Centaur Healer is very good against mono-red
how low is the price ceiling on thoughtseize? Im really hoping they’ll drop to 12-13, realistically 15 and ideally 10 to scoop up for modern season. Does price memory keep it really high?
Yes, price memory will keep it high. I expect this to mimic Scavenging Ooze/Mutavault in the “recently reprinted eternal format staples” pricing..i.e. it’ll probably hit $14-15, I don’t think $10 is all that likely thanks in large part due to the price memory; but get them at $14-15.
I think anything under 15 is the floor, this card is too good in a midrange/control meta and I think that is where this metagame will head