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Insider: Interests of Note for Christmas Week

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Note: Last week I broke my hand on the pinky side. My typing is much slower as a result and so my next few articles will be a bit shorter as I recover. Apologies for the inconvenience.

This week I am going to take a close look at the top mtgstocks.com interests from last week and classify which ones I feel are worth watching and which ones are likely to be artificial spikes. I know the weekly Top Winners column on mtgstocks.com is unavailable this week due to the holidays. This is of course understandable, but it doesn’t mean nothing noteworthy happened in the land of MTG finance last week.

Disrupting Shoal

Case in point:

Interests

The top mover this past week comes as no surprise to our insiders--the forums were definitely on top of this one after it put up decent results on MTGO along with Travis Woo’s endorsement. I only wish I had bought in on December 12th when member liucoke upped the thread. So much money could have been made!

Shoal

My recommendation: Sell. Even if the card has potential, most of the upside is gone now at this high price. In order to go even higher, this card would have to make waves at premier events or at least PTQs.

Since these are still months away, you risk missing out on future spikes if you decide to hold. I’d take the profit and run--this spike is not likely to last.

Mana Echoes

I have seen this card show up as an interest numerous times now and I’ve continuously ignored it. Perhaps it’s time to pay attention. Cheap copies of this Onslaught rare are gone.

Echoes

This card doesn’t even show up in the QS forums--I have to imagine its a casual slash Commander play of some sort but I’m honestly not sure. Perhaps the reintroduction of slivers spiked interest in this tribal-themed card. The price increase did start once M14 was released.

Either way, I don’t think this jump is artificial. I believe there is genuine interest in the card among the casual crowd. I can’t advocate going ultra deep here if my assessment is accurate, but trading for these could prove profitable in the long term.

Hurkyl's Recall

Recall

This spike may have been driven by the Brainstorm Brewery cast. While I admit having these in black border is nice, I’m not sure if the spike in Tenth Edition copies is sustainable. Foil versions definitely deserve the premium, but I can’t get behind nonfoils at this higher price.

If you’re a gambler, feel free to hold into Modern season. But if you’re conservative like me, sell your Tenth Edition copies, buy a set of Fourth Edition versions for a buck and walk away profitable.

Honorable Mentions

It is interesting to see Phyrexian Obliterator remain resilient at this new, higher price point. I fully expected a large retreat in price, but buyers have kept up interest.

Obliterator

The ceiling on this card is likely $30--at least before Modern season arrives. I have had two SP copies on eBay listed at $24.99 for a week now with no buyers. Someone is buying these up, and I just wish they’d buy my copies already. I see greater opportunities elsewhere in the coming months.

Hinder had caught my eye lately. This popular Commander uncommon is becoming scarce as it ages further. Looks like this is definitely a card to look for in bulk boxes or when purchasing collections.

Finally, it appears Stoneforge Mystic is finally on the move. It’s about time. This card has been a Legacy staple for years, and the Event Deck printing can only keep the value down for so long.

Mystic

Buylists haven’t caught up yet with this recent run, but it should be a matter of time. Watch these closely. They will hit $20 before you know it, and reprints are unlikely. She makes little sense in Standard without much equipment and she’s banned in Modern. She could appear in a hypothetical Legacy Masters and that’s about it. Safe buy.

Wrapping It Up

Hand is getting stiff so I am going to call it quits here. Sorry about the lack of Sigbits these next couple weeks.

Hope everyone has a terrific holiday season!

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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5 thoughts on “Insider: Interests of Note for Christmas Week

  1. While it’s human nature to pay attention to the cards that just spiked, it’s kind of a paradox, since a recent spike means both the cards might be better than we thought, but also that the upside just became much smaller (and downside much bigger). That’s why I usually don’t buy cards like these, instead I stock up on Deathrite Shaman, Restoration Angel and the miracles. I prefer cards before they spike up.

    I do agree with your analysis mostly. Mana Echoes is an effective and unique combo engine that was reprinted like forever ago. $10 on Disruptive Shoal and $30 on Phyrexian Obliterator seem ridiculous. Stoneforge Mystic seems to have potential, although I do not know Legacy enough to really say.

    1. Yuka,

      Thanks for adding your thoughts. I agree that the vast majority of the time, responding to these jumps is doing it wrong. But it doesn’t mean the info is valueless. There can still be opportunity to find cheaper copies….or better yet, sell into the hype. I’ve got 4 watchers now and my Obliterators are cheapest on eBay. Still no takers though.

  2. Thanks for the article Sigmund! I agree with all of your assessments here; in particular I appreciate that you drew attention to the reasons why Stoneforge Mystic is unlikely to see a reprint.

    Phyrexian Obliterator seems to have true worth, after all. While I also haven’t sold any copies yet, I haven’t listed any in a while (because they weren’t selling), and I’ve also found that players in the local community eagerly trade for it at $30. I will be relisting today and watching carefully.

    I hope your hand heals well and doesn’t spoil your holidays too much. Merry Christmas!

    1. Thanks for the comment! I also look forward to my hand healing…3 weeks in a cast and then I can use a small finger splint for a couple weeks. Sigh…

      Glad you agree on SFM – she just doesn’t really fit in as a logical reprint anywhere. Maybe as a GP Promo or judge Promo, but that’s all I can foresee. So she seems fairly safe for the mid-term.

      Obliterator may be legit. Not going to argue there at all. I just feel like the remaining upside is small while the card remains unproven at a premier level. Time will tell.

      Happy Holidays!

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