Going to keep this week really short and to the point.
There haven't been a whole lot of Modern results to really form an opinion of what's going on, so the ear has been to the ground scouring as much information as possible. The information is still trickling slowly, and even MTGO events are showing a lot of static right now--nothing solid to stand your ground on.
Top 5 Cards I'm Still Watching
1) Snapcaster Mage
It's coming. That's really all there is to it. The price correction is already happening on MTGO as online copies are shooting up in value right now. In the last three days, the price has jumped for 7.8 to 10.6 tix with a slight hiccup back to 10.3.
This is a great indicator that it should be making a price correction in paper soon to. The issue with paper has always been how slow the behemoth is to move. It's a giant lumbering beast that takes it's sweet time adjusting when the market is moving fast and furious. It takes many dealers to go, "Oh, crap!" before a true move is made.
This is also seeing a rise in popularity. The recent addition of Tarmogoyf to Twin is something that's not new--it's just been used again. While I didn't take this into account in my preseason prediction, the death of Jund, or even B/G for that matter, has been greatly exaggerated. It's the best deck in the format if you want to have at least 50/50 against pretty much everything. That's what type of format this is right now. Pretty much a little bit of this, and a little bit of that.
Local metagames not withstanding, some of what's performing at the top is really taking it's time trickling down. Is this because the most represented deck is using the Scalding Tarns and Misty Rainforests?
The price barrier conversation hasn't come up much lately, but it's still very much an issue. I wouldn't be surprised if by midseason the true naysayers will be really climbing the roof tops beginning the shouts of Modern Masters II. That set is a long way off people. I'd give it as much as two years before we see it.
As such, there are still plenty of decks with not only competitiveness in mind, but wallet too. As that focus begins to shift to those, the naysayers might quit their squawking. This format is still quite affordable.
3) Eidolon of the Great Revel
Wow. What a segue! Speaking of affordable decks, I am seeing more and more Red Deck Wins making appearances. The last PTQ, the Modern FNM, results on MTGO, the deck is really everywhere.
I won't go out on a limb and say that the Eidolon of the Great Revel was what finally put the deck over the hump, but it's still a worthwhile piece to take notice of.
The new RDW is fast. I mean straight up faster than I have seen it before. I've seen a lot of RDW but this is more akin to Legacy Burn than I have seen it before. My hats off to whoever has been churning out this version. It's a real contender.
4) Hurkyl's Recall
Hurkyl's Recall is an interesting card. It's making me want to scratch my head profusely. It's jumped from 22 tix to 32 tix in the last three weeks, as I thought it might--but yet its paper value has held solid at $7-8. The jury is still out on this card, but apparently the Affinity matchup is definitely on URW's mind.
5) Blood Moon
It's still hit or miss if it shows up in decks. One minute, everyone is talking about it. The next, it's no where to be seen. What that means pricewise is as enigmatic to you as to me. This last week, though, it has climbed another 4% and is pushing on the door of $20. Considering around six months ago this card was a hard $7, I don't know how much more you can expect out of it.
The issue is that this format is still extremely unprepared for it. I'm wondering if the support role it's playing is just too weak without more of a deck to throw behind it. The point is: the potential for Blood Moon to shut down most decks is still there.
The $17 mark might be more retailers anticipating the popularity of the card, while the demand is just not supporting it. Now might be the time to eject on Blood Moon. I'm giving it three more weeks.
-Till Next Time.