Insider: Event Horizon Update

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello again!

Going to keep this week really short and to the point.

There haven't been a whole lot of Modern results to really form an opinion of what's going on, so the ear has been to the ground scouring as much information as possible. The information is still trickling slowly, and even MTGO events are showing a lot of static right now--nothing solid to stand your ground on.

Top 5 Cards I'm Still Watching

1) Snapcaster Mage

It's coming. That's really all there is to it. The price correction is already happening on MTGO as online copies are shooting up in value right now. In the last three days, the price has jumped for 7.8 to 10.6 tix with a slight hiccup back to 10.3.

This is a great indicator that it should be making a price correction in paper soon to. The issue with paper has always been how slow the behemoth is to move. It's a giant lumbering beast that takes it's sweet time adjusting when the market is moving fast and furious. It takes many dealers to go, "Oh, crap!" before a true move is made.

2) Tarmogoyf

This is also seeing a rise in popularity. The recent addition of Tarmogoyf to Twin is something that's not new--it's just been used again. While I didn't take this into account in my preseason prediction, the death of Jund, or even B/G for that matter, has been greatly exaggerated. It's the best deck in the format if you want to have at least 50/50 against pretty much everything. That's what type of format this is right now. Pretty much a little bit of this, and a little bit of that.

Local metagames not withstanding, some of what's performing at the top is really taking it's time trickling down. Is this because the most represented deck is using the Scalding Tarns and Misty Rainforests?

The price barrier conversation hasn't come up much lately, but it's still very much an issue. I wouldn't be surprised if by midseason the true naysayers will be really climbing the roof tops beginning the shouts of Modern Masters II. That set is a long way off people. I'd give it as much as two years before we see it.

As such, there are still plenty of decks with not only competitiveness in mind, but wallet too. As that focus begins to shift to those, the naysayers might quit their squawking. This format is still quite affordable.

3) Eidolon of the Great Revel

Wow. What a segue! Speaking of affordable decks, I am seeing more and more Red Deck Wins making appearances. The last PTQ, the Modern FNM, results on MTGO, the deck is really everywhere.

I won't go out on a limb and say that the Eidolon of the Great Revel was what finally put the deck over the hump, but it's still a worthwhile piece to take notice of.

The new RDW is fast. I mean straight up faster than I have seen it before. I've seen a lot of RDW but this is more akin to Legacy Burn than I have seen it before. My hats off to whoever has been churning out this version. It's a real contender.

4) Hurkyl's Recall

Hurkyl's Recall is an interesting card. It's making me want to scratch my head profusely. It's jumped from 22 tix to 32 tix in the last three weeks, as I thought it might--but yet its paper value has held solid at $7-8. The jury is still out on this card, but apparently the Affinity matchup is definitely on URW's mind.

5) Blood Moon

It's still hit or miss if it shows up in decks. One minute, everyone is talking about it. The next, it's no where to be seen. What that means pricewise is as enigmatic to you as to me. This last week, though, it has climbed another 4% and is pushing on the door of $20. Considering around six months ago this card was a hard $7, I don't know how much more you can expect out of it.

The issue is that this format is still extremely unprepared for it. I'm wondering if the support role it's playing is just too weak without more of a deck to throw behind it. The point is: the potential for Blood Moon to shut down most decks is still there.

The $17 mark might be more retailers anticipating the popularity of the card, while the demand is just not supporting it. Now might be the time to eject on Blood Moon. I'm giving it three more weeks.

-Till Next Time.

Dylan Beckham

Dylan has been involved in Magic: The Gathering since the heyday of The Dark. Continually invested in the community, he's been a Pro Tour Player, Trader, Judge, Tournament Organizer, Volunteer, and Vendor. Currently involved with the day to day operations of selling online, Dylan has brought his experience to Quiet Speculation to make you a better investor. Hailing from the Atlanta area, and now part of the Dallas scene - he's often at big events sourcing cards or discussing Life, the Universe, and Everything. Have a question? Feel free to comment, message, or email anytime.

View More By Dylan Beckham

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Modern, PredictionsTagged , , , , , , ,

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

4 thoughts on “Insider: Event Horizon Update

    1. Absolutely – it could be. The price online is ridiculous at the moment. Paper magic has been pretty steady, but online prices have gone through the roof. I see a lot of sound logic in your question.

  1. Blood moon is still seeing a spike from (gp Richmond) months ago. I think the card is too metagame dependent. The reason it goes in waves is due to that directly. One week will have people playing a greedier mana base than the next, or the one previous. It has seen a bunch of printings. I would advise to get away from the non foils while you can. The card is great, but it has always been a known threat.

    1. Which would concur with the reasons behind this particular article segment. I’ve been watching this card for over 6 months, anticipating the point where I will sell out.

      It’s constantly looming on the metagame that this card is a legitimate threat at any point in time. The fact that U/R Twin has gone back to more RUG Twin has made the relevance of Bloodmoon even bigger if you ask me. Again though – known threat or not, it is a SHUT down threat – which there are not many off. Not just a hoser, but “Oh, I’m sorry, you wanted to play Magic? #sorrynotsorry.

      I understand where you’re coming from – but one week to the next can easily determine if this is the week to sell out or buy up. This particular week was just discussing trends that are still progressing.

Join the conversation

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.

Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.