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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.
There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.
Redemption
Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of March 23rd, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each setâs individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.
Usually Supernovaâs prices are a good proxy for market prices. They are not perfect, but they are close. Recently though, their prices for JOU have been too low, so Iâve put an asterisk (*) beside that set price. The set price for JOU on Goatbots is currently 93 tix.
Price weakness on MTGO continues, with almost every redeemable set dropping in price this week. The past weekend, paper prereleases for DTK were held and so we are in a lame duck period for constructed formats on MTGO. Results from the new Standard format are going to start trickling in, but you wonât be able to test out the new decks on MTGO until DTK is released in about two weeks.
On top of that, the return of Cube draft as well as a popular flashback draft format in ROE have prices trending down as demand for tix increases. Lastly, the price of KTK boosters has drifted below 2 tix, meaning a 100% win rate in the two-person Constructed queues will mean you are bleeding tix every time you enter that queue.
Add it all up and MTGO is in the middle of a bear market. If youâve been hoarding your tix, itâs time to start thinking about deploying them, but it does not look like we are at the bottom yet.
Return to Ravnica Block & M14
As the DTK prereleases hit this past weekend, The TCG Mid set prices for both RTR and GTC took a break from their recent uptrend. Standard is going to be grabbing the spotlight in the short term as DTK shakes things up and the pros try to solve the new format at PT DTK. This was not unexpected, and the uptrend in prices for these sets should resume over the coming weeks.
If you are still holding past recommendations, such as Domri Rade and Sphinx's Revelation, these are still both âholdsâ. Once MM2 hits, there should be another jump in prices for these sets, which will be supportive of their mythic rares.
In paper, M14 looks quite similar in that it saw some price weakness this week. In the digital market, there has been a run on many of the M14 mythic rares on MTGO. Goatbots is currently out of stock on 5 of the mythic rares, and mtgotraders is also hotlisting 6 mythics. Itâs not definitive, and itâs probably not going to last, but this temporary shortage will eventually end with higher prices.
This type of buyout is not unusual on MTGO. The supply of cards and their prices can appear to be stable for weeks, even months. Then something happens and the market makes a sudden move. As supply and demand rebalance a new price will be established. The patient speculator will not pretend to be able to predict exactly when these events will occur, only that they must occur. Having a long-term perspective ensures that these profitable events are not missed.
Theros Block & M15
THS has seen many of its top mythic rares fall in price recently. Stormbreath Dragon is back below 10 tix. On the other hand, Master of Waves has held its price in the 6-7 tix range with the anticipated resurgence of Mono-Blue Devotion in Standard. Itâs not clear whether there are good speculative targets in this set at the moment, but THS is certainly starting to look like âgood valueâ.
The second set in the block is also showing signs of good value. Keep an eye on Courser of Kruphix from BNG as this card is one of the most played in Standard and has seen some adoption in Modern. Itâs been a while since this card has been below 10 tix, so a rebound is possible.
Goblin Rabblemaster has quietly drifted down into the 12 to 13 tix range again. Itâs doubtful that this card will be any less of a staple in DTK Standard, though the new token hoser Virulent Plague might remove some upside. Nevertheless, it should definitely be on peopleâs radar at current prices. Speculating on rares that are 10+ tix is a dangerous game, but this card from M15 has already seen a couple of uptrends into the 18+ tix range. One more is certainly not out of the question.
Khans of Tarkir & Fate Reforged
KTK looks like it has found a bottom, though a final dip is quite possible once the DTK prereleases begin. The prices on many of the mythic rares appear to be quite stable, so if you have been trying to hit the exact bottom, buying a basket of KTK mythic rares at current prices will be pretty close.
Meanwhile for FRF, prices took a big hit this week. Most of the mythic rares are now below 4 tix, and even Ugin is probably destined to be sub 10 tix. On top of that, the two standout uncommons of the set, Wild Slash and Valorous Stance, have each fallen below 1 tix. These two cards could probably be over 1 tix in the Fall, but the price bottom for them wonât be reached until the summer at the earliest.
Modern
On average Modern staples are on a slow declining trend, but the price of some has rebounded. ZEN fetchlands are up by about 10% from their recent bottom after the announcement of Battle for Zendikar. The one big thing to notice is that the out-of-print fetchlands are seeing lower lows over time. This makes it hard to tell if a price floor has been reached on these cards. Also, a few other cards such as Spellskite, Leyline of Sanctity and Blinkmoth Nexus are up slightly, compared to a week ago.
Amulet of Vigor rebounded from 1.5 Tix after the B&R list announcement from this past Monday. This card might well be a very pricey card in the near future if it is not in MM2. Itâs definitely a card that could have been under the radar for needing a reprint in Modern Masters 2015. If it drops in price during DTK release events, it could be a good gamble as the chances of seeing this Worldwake rare in MM2 are low.
Modern prices tend to cycle up and down, with the commons and uncommons doing so even more frequently than rares and mythic rares. Gitaxian Probe, Dismember, Tectonic Edge and Inquisition of Kozilek are some prime examples of cards that exhibit these frequent up and down movements.
Lingering Souls and Flame Slash have both now shown a ceiling of around 1 Tix (see the respective charts here and here) and the same tendency to cycle down to a lower price. If a well-timed purchase is made, it is certainly possible to grind a few tix with these cards.
Vintage & Legacy
Prices in both formats are very stable or slightly on the rise since the beginning of the month. Supply and demand seem to be perfectly balanced at this point. Later this spring, reprints in Tempest Remastered and Modern Masters 2015 will decrease the total Vintage and Legacy prices, but at this point you should not be holding any cards that are reprintable in these two sets.
All other staples of these two formats are expected to at least retain their value, especially when a drop in price on the more expensive cards such as Wasteland and Tarmogoyf could encourage more players to venture into these eternal formats.
Pauper
An update to the B&R list struck again and this time Pauper got hit. In a format that allows library manipulation spells that are banned in Modern, as well the classic Counterspell, itâs no surprise that Treasure Cruise was a staple of any deck playing blue, and in fact the most played card in Pauper. If a card is on the restricted list for Vintage, itâs probably not going to be legal in any other non-Standard format for very long.
The more recent addition to the Pauper metagameâthe U/B Delve deckâwill be affected by this ban. It may be too early to tell if Mental Note will suffer in the long term from the Treasure Cruise ban, but it certainly lowers the upside. In the short term, Mental Note has taken a hit and dipped below 0.4 Tix in the initial reaction to the B&R list change.
Keep in mind though that commons printed in Judgment are quite scarce and so sustaining a price greater than 0.5 Tix for a common such as Mental Note  doesnât require a lot of demand.
Obviously this B&R list announcement favors non-blue decks. Although we donât think this will profoundly affect the Pauper metagame, decks such as Mono-Black, Stompy, Burn and Affinity will at least be tried out again and may even creep up in the metagame. Cards composing these decks may see some price increases.
“the price of KTK boosters has drifted below 2 tix, meaning a 100% win rate in the two-person Constructed queues will mean you are bleeding tix every time you enter that queue.”
I find it wrong to translate it like this on a site dedicated to speculation.
You should mention that it would be bleeding if you sell your boosters directly. But this is only true if the price stays below 2 for eternity.
Prices will go up, and that’s the moment you should sell them.
No, if the value of the packs is less than the amount of tixs required to play tuen you would be better off buying packs directly as you could buy more packs on a large enough scale.
You are correct. If you are not tix constrained, and can hold your boosters, they will probably rise above 2 tix over the coming months. I think buying a bunch of KTK boosters when they bottom out during DTK events is probably going to be an ‘ok’ spec, and I will be doing just that for my own portfolio.
I think I was just trying to illustrate why demand for constructed cards could be low right now. The current price of prizes, on the secondary market, is quite low. This should discourage some players from playing constructed.
Thanks for reading, and commenting!
The things that that makes Goblin Rabblemaster a good target now are the same things that made Thragtusk a good investment around this time of year 2013. Both widely used in Standard, both from an “M” set which are usually criminally underopened, both rares, and like all standard staples, they have the potential to get a bump from the changing meta-game.
Oh wait. Thragtusk turned out to be a really bad idea… and the above was a bit tongue-in-cheek (for those that read it and thought I was serious). I don’t support the idea that anyone should buy rabblemaster no matter the size of their bankroll unless they really want to just play with him. Here’s why:
I keep a spreadsheet on profits and losses and next to the losses I usually put an explanation of what went wrong and how I should avoid similar situations in the future.
Huntmaster of the Fells
Hellrider
Thragtusk
Thundermaw Hellkite
Restoration Angel
All these ended up as losses for me after buying into standard late in hopes of that one last bump. Next to each entry on my spreadsheet, I wrote “don’t buy any cards within six months of their rotation, sell out before April regardless” This was the lesson I came away with.
Obviously not every standard staple has a clear, smooth decline up to their rotation. Some of the cards I mentioned above did have small bumps in price and small profits could have been made if selling were timed perfectly, but based on my experience, it’s a 50/50 chance whether a card sees a bump or just sees a straight decline from March to October. Investing on the chance of “one last bump” is bad investing.
I know you put some very cautious wording in there and warned about the risk of buying 10+ tix rares, but I don’t think think the cards in the theros block/m15 even merit mention, other than to say “Big red flag, buy-in at your own risk, here’s what happened in the past and here’s what we might learn from it”
The rest of the article is spot-on as far as I’m concerned and as always I appreciate both of your viewpoints and the articles you write. But for the Theros block section, it just seems like you guys should know better.
“Itâs not clear whether there are good speculative targets in this set at the moment”
“… so a rebound is possible.”
“One more [uptrend] is certainly not out of the question.”
These are not the sort of vague statements that speculators will benefit from.
Very well put. Over the years, the feedback and comments on my writing has highlighted or developed an idea, and I think this is one of those valuable moments.
The experience with Thragtusk was definitely on my mind when ruminating about the price of Goblin Rabblemaster. I think it will be important to emphasize (and re emphasize) that the downside risk on THS and M15 cards is going to be ramping up over the coming months, as you suggest.
Thanks for the reality check! Keep reading, and commenting!
I share the pain of the Thragtusk and Restoration Angel specs, and I agree with your conclusion after this miss.
However, and to some extent, these specs were from another era which was not Standard Pro Tour at all after the one after release of the fall set.
Now not less than 2 Standard PTs are scheduled! and nothing drive prices nuts like PT.
Last year Pro Tour M15 drove average M14 prices up by ~30%, which never happened with M13 and M12. Mutavault for instance went from 13 Tix to 25 Tix! Garruk, caller of beast from 6 to 11, Archangel of Thune from 9.5 to 20.
This year there will be a DTK Pro Tour. The only question I want to know the answer is how DTK will affect the Standard Metagame, and more particularly which cards. With 2 Pro Tours before rotation prices have enough time to fluctuate up again.
I wouldn’t be holding these kind of spec forever but buying a basket of the most promising targets, i.e. previous Standard staples, seem reasonably fair. Sell quickly the ones that wound’t get a second chance at PT DTK and keep for 2-3 weeks the others.
Wash, rince and repeat after Magic Origins probably.
Several cards had a nice peak several months ago and may have a second chance now: Doomwake Giant, Temple of Enlightenment, Temple of X, Ajani MoH, Pharika, Mana confluence, Elspeth. JOU and M15 having the most chances of bigger price surges.
These are anyway short term specs, almost quick flips, but there are definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Thank you both for the reply. I appreciate the dialogue.
Sylvain, upon consideration, I think you’re right about this being a different era with different factors. The data about M14 is helpful in rebalancing my opinion about timing factors, pro tour influence and the possibility of gains late in the standard game. I’d be interested if the staples of the non-M sets in the RTR block showed a spike for that pro tour. Let’s really pay attention to the subject going forward and maybe we can compare three sets of data.
Keep in mind that the examples you mentioned all saw their bottoms in July-ish and their 30% spikes only brought them back to their March/april prices, and didn’t exceed them in most cases. You are correct that widely watched Pro Tours will continue to affect the market in dramatic ways, but it may be right before the origins pro tour that the time is right to get in on a basket. Keeping an eye out for price weakness across the board is always a good idea and you’re doing that well, I think.
That being said, it probably won’t be a strategy I’ll employ. it’s definitely good that you EMPHASIZE that these are quick flips (win lose or break even). Because I feel like it is psychologically difficult to sell off cards in this scenario where there’s a potential for upside deep into the summer and even later.
I also realize that there’s a difference between a market report (which you’re presenting) and an outright speculation article. You guys are cautious and more “keeping an eye on” these staples rather then calling out a “buy”. You clearly state in the end “target speculative buying opportunities: None” But do keep in mind that sometimes newer speculators will make silly decisions and sometimes will buy into almost anything that even gets a mention by name. (Compare to the hype of getting a certain card on camera in a pro tour and the buying scramble that often results?).