Welcome back to High-Stakes MTGO!
This week has clearly been calmer than the previous one. We are now emerging out of Pro Tour Eldrazi and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) release events. This means I'm expecting several Modern staples I put on the sideline two weeks ago, and all Standard cards, to rebound in the following weeks. With some Legacy in the mix as well, let's see how this is unfolding in my portfolio.
Here is the link to the live Spreadsheet.
Buy This Week
I missed the first wagon for Force of Will as they quickly picked up from 25 Tix to 33 Tix. The announcement of Eternal Masters (EMA) apparently got people to panic-sell their Forces. I don't think Force is going to be devalued four months before the release of EMA and now that Legacy Leagues have just started. I took advantage of this second opportunity and bought three playsets of the mythic counterspell.
Inquisition of Kozilek is still a very solid discard card in Modern. Its price has stabilized around 4 tix after Pro Tour OGW. With no reprint in Modern Masters or Modern Masters 2015 the price could spike again to 10 tix if demand cycles up again.
Sales This Week
My current selling price with Caves is 2.5 Tix. This bar was crossed in several instances this past week and I sold another 50 copies of so. Now that OGW release events are over, other Standard prices might accentuate their rebound, including Magic Origins painlands.
Depending on how prices evolve for Caves of Koilos I might be looking for higher selling prices, but I'm very comfortable selling a good chunk of my position at 2.5 Tix.
Redemption of Theros sets has stopped. The price of THS full sets has plunged and there's no reason to wait for anything else here. I sold my copies as soon as I heard the news.
Coldnsap flashback drafts are not too far away and the price of Arcum Dagsson nosedived this past week. I have no reason to hold onto this position at this point. I sold all my copies with a little 13% profit, better than nothing.
On My Radar
We're almost a week in and many Legacy prices have rebounded to where they were in November to December during the Legacy MOCS. The Vintage Masters (VMA) dual lands are getting close to their price at release one and a half years ago.
I'm closely monitoring my Legacy positions and I might sell these very soon. I'll discuss this more in detail below, but I didn't intend to keep my Legacy positions for the long run. With an already decent profit I might simply cash out in a week or two at most.
My portfolio holds several Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged positions, including Warden of the First Tree, Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Dig Through Time. All of these guys are rotating out of Standard in about two months. Now that we are clear of OGW release events there's only a very short window where players may want to buy these before prices crash. I'll be looking to sell my KTK and FRF positions very soon, even at a good loss.
Questions & Answers
Legacy Specs, Reserved List and Eternal Masters
The announcement of Legacy Leagues set up a perfect ground for obvious and profitable specs. Staples all across the Legacy format jumped in price in a few hours and are still on the rise less than a week into Legacy Leagues.
Everything was thought to be an easy ride and then Eternal Masters with its two first official spoilers---Wasteland and Force of Will---was announced. The VMA version of Force spiked from 23 tix to 33 tix in 24 hours only to be back to 25 tix four days later when EMA was announced. Overreaction? Fear? Nonsense? All of the above?
Is EMA a threat to the Legacy targets acquired two weeks ago? And are there profitable positions to be taken regarding cards on the Reserved List? Short answers: no, and no.
To begin with, my perspective on Legacy Leagues-related specs had always been short-term. The announcement of Legacy Leagues created a boom and several cards have already doubled in price, while others may still grow for a few more weeks. Nonetheless the leagues end April 13th and I don't want to wait until April 12th to see how high my Legacy specs can go or if they can only sustain the Legacy Challenge. In summary, I'm most likely to exit my positions very soon, most likely before mid-March.
Force of Will has been spoiled in EMA. Infernal Tutor or Counterbalance might also be in this set, and the tutor has been rumored to be in. However this is mostly irrelevant information at this point for what I'm concerned.
EMA will be released in four months, well beyond my selling point for my Legacy specs, and a reprint in EMA should not really affect your strategy regarding Legacy specs. With already great gains I believe the correct strategy is to sell early rather than waiting for cards to break new record highs they may never see.
By the way, I kind of missed the first boat on Force of Will when Legacy Leagues got announced but the big price drop following the EMA announcement let me buy three playsets of VMA Force at ~25 tix each. They are back to 30 tix as I write this.
Concerning the Reserved List. If this is a sacred institution for paper Magic, there is no such a thing on MTGO. Anything and everything can be printed and reprinted at will in the form of special sets, promos or flashback drafts. Cards from the Reserved List won't be in EMA and dual lands and the like may have a better chance to sustain the price hike they recorded these past two weeks.
However you should not think that's a safe investment in the long run. I will sell my dual lands in March as well. It would be totally possible for WotC to plan a series of flashback drafts including Vintage Masters or any of the Masters sets before or after EMA is released online. Don't be caught by surprise---anything can happen on MTGO.
Thank you for reading,