Daily Stock Watch – Tarmogoyf

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And now the end is near... Or is it?

Today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch is a bit edgy. This card has been on a downward spiral for a while, after spending most of the recent years on top of people's needs and wants list. Considered by many as the best vanilla creature of all-time, it seems that the times have changed so drastically that people aren't even too keen on using it. You won't even find a single copy of the card on any of the top-8 decks of the recently concluded SCG Modern Open and SCG Classic Washington. However, three copies of the card was present in this deck that won Eternal Weekend 2017, and another three on this one that made the top 8 of SCG Legacy Open Washington. That's a bit underwhelming for a card that carries such a high price tag.

Yes, my fellow planeswalkers. We are talking about our favorite green critter:

Have we actually seen the end of Goyf's reign as the king of hand-to-hand combat creatures? I'm not too sold on that idea yet. For two mana, this is still the biggest threat, creature-wise, that you could pull out of nowhere at any point of a game. It has ended games with one massive swing, and has taken down the likes of Griselbrand, Iona, Shield of Emeria, and even lots of Khalni Hydras.

But then again, why aren't people using it that much anymore? Since there would be more Modern tournaments in the coming weeks than that of Legacy, let's stick to that environment for the time being and see what's giving Goyf a hard time.

The Kings of Modern

Based on the results of a tool that computes the creatures that are most used for Modern decks that made the top 8 of recorded events over the last two months, statistics show that these creatures are played more than Goyf. You could make a case that this was actually due to the fact that the meta has shifted over the said period, as around 13.1 percent of Modern decks have used it for the year 2017, but only 8.9 percent of decks over the last 2 months did. It has remained relevant, but it hasn't produced wins for people who chose to pilot a deck that's running it.

Is it fair to blame those creatures for Goyf's demise? Let's have a look at other cards that's giving our hero a hard time surviving:

Tarmogoyf Modern Hosers

One glance at these cards and we could easily make a case that most of these cards could also do the same to the creatures I mentioned above. But why are they being played over Goyf?

The answer is pretty much debatable. Mana dorks help you ramp up to your win cons with relative ease; Snap and Ooze could pretty much cancel out Goyf's effectiveness, given the correct resources; and the rest of the gang could just stand toe-to-toe with it power-wise. Now might be the best time to choose them over it (besides the obvious synergistic purposes). But then again, I could just be overthinking by doing this.

Thanks to pi, Verscott, The Coach, and the rest of our awesome peeps over at the QS Discord channel, I was able to dig some old information about Tarmogoyf's financial background. I wasn't really playing Magic when it was first released in Future Sight, so I had no idea how much it cost back in the day. So based on this article by Star City Games' Ben Bleiweiss, people were able to actually get copies at the pre-selling price of $3 in April of that year, and it hit its peak of $50 as the new year started. In a span of eight months, the value of this card shot to as high as sixteen times more than its original price. Maybe what goes around just really comes around.

At the moment, the Future Sight version could be bought at as low as $69.99, which is a big dip from its price tag a week ago of $75.05. The masters version are all down to as low as $48.95, which is its all-time lowest price. The foil version of the masters also hit rock bottom at $127.50, but the FS version maintained its $899 value due to limited supply.

I'm really on the fence if now is the best time to get your playset or rid yourself of your extra copies. This card is crazy good across all formats, and it could easily skyrocket again given the correct metagame environment. For the meantime, I'd suggest that you keep an eye on it and follow your heart's desire with how you'd like to go about it. I'm also very open to your opinion, so feel free to voice it in the comments section.

We're also covering Pro Tour Ixalan right now, so I suggest that you join us on our QS Discord channel for more realtime updates on anything and everything that's about Magic! The Daily Stock Watch will be back again on Monday for more exciting reviews.

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