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Unlocked: Market Movements This Week

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The impending release of Commander 2018 has continued to be one of the major drivers in the market, causing spikes in numerous cards. Last weekend’s Pro Tour 25th Anniversary was also a major factor in price changes this week, as it featured three constructed formats and saw new decks break out in each.

Commander 2018


The Esper “Subjective Reality” deck with a top-of-library-matters theme has been slow to impact the market relative to the other Commander 2018 decks. Now it has seen a major spike with Insidious Dreams, which makes sense as a very powerful card for stacking the top of the deck. It was previously just $3, but is now selling in the mid-teens.


The Jund “Nature’s Vengeance” Lands deck looks to be popular based on its impact on the price of many cards. One card that spiked this week was Realms Uncharted, the Gifts Ungiven for lands that’s perfect for the deck, which doubled from around $2 to over $4.


Omnath, Locus of Rage will be a powerful finisher for the lands deck, and will also get more attention as a commander of its own deck, so it has spiked from under $2 to $5.


A savvy pickup for the lands deck is Constant Mists, which is great in a deck that can fuel lands with cards like Life from the Loam and the commander of the deck, Lord Windgrace. It has doubled from $4 to $8, and still seems like a bargain for being such an old and powerful card, especially one that is Legacy-playable.


An interesting spike in reaction to the lands deck is Polluted Bonds, which is a strong hoser against the strategy. It will be great in the deck for fighting back against the mirror, or in the Esper enchantment deck against the lands deck, or simply in any black deck that wants to fight against lands players. It had already been growing, up from $7 to $11 in the past month, but spiked to $13 in the past day and is likely to head higher.


The enchantment deck continues to be popular and to spike the price of numerous cards. Last week foil copies of Words of Wind spiked, and this week normal copies followed suit, from $3 to nearly $10. This spike was completely predictable based on the foil spike last week—a wake-up call that paying close attention to foil Commander spikes could lead to fantastic specs on the non-foil counterparts if they lag behind.


A classic enchantment card is Argothian Enchantress, and it will be a perfect fit in the Bant enchantment deck. Urza’s Saga and Eternal Masters copies of the card have spiked from around $7 to $16.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sakashima's Student

The Commander 2018 decks contain the first legendary gold Ninja, Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow, which means the first gold Ninja commander, which makes the first truly complete Ninja Commander deck possible. This has brought great interest to the tribe and spiked many cards. This week Sakashima's Student saw major gains, up from around $7 to $20.


There also continues to be demand from the Arcades, the Strategist Commander deck. Crenellated Wall continued to grow this week, up from $1 to $5, although played copies are available for a few dollars.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Walker of Secret Ways

There were also a few Commander-related foil spikes this week. Walker of Secret Ways spiked based on the Ninja deck, up to $25 from $5. The nonfoil copies have also crept up behind it.


Foil copies of Retether are up to $18 from around $5 last week, as it’s a nice tool for the enchantment deck. The nonfoil version is creeping up towards $4 from $3. It might be set for more gains and a potential spike based on the foil, so this could be a good spec right now.

The Pro Tour

The Pro Tour made a big impact on the market, especially in Modern because of the breakout Vengevine deck. This deck is similar to Hollow One in how it utilizes the graveyard and some of the same cards. As when the Hollow One deck broke out, its staples have all spiked.


Vengevine is the centerpiece of the deck, and thus spiked from around $23 to around $60. I expect the card has been underpriced for years, and it was only a matter of time before it spiked. I don’t see it falling much from its current price, which is around $45-50 for played copies.


Another critical piece of the deck is Bridge from Below, which has additional demand as a crossover staple in Dredge. Its previous price of around $8 was bargain compared to the current price over $20.


A staple of the sideboard, and even the maindeck of some lists, is Leyline of the Void. It doubled over the weekend, from around $30 to $60.


Another staple that approximately doubled is Gravecrawler, up from $5 to $9.


A card from the deck I have my eye on is Greater Gargadon, which is new tech that broke out over the weekend. If it catches on as a staple and is played by everyone going forward, then its current price around $3.50 should increase.


Another Modern spike of note is Nimble Obstructionist, which is being played in the Blue-Red Wizards deck. It’s up to $5 from just over $1, a rather massive spike. It’s likely to fall back down a bit, but it looks like a great post-rotation pickup for long-term growth.

-Adam

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